A new wave of protests sweeping Iran could be the trigger for Donald Trump to order military intervention, according to regional security experts and former US officials.
The first major demonstrations since a nationwide uprising was brutally put down by the regime last month, centred around universities as students return to campuses for the start of a new term.
Verified footage showed crowds of students participating in protests at several universities in the capital city, Tehran, with some clips appearing to show clashes between protesters and pro-regime groups.
Opposition media reported that Iranian security forces were deployed to break up rallies, which were timed to mark the 40-day memorials of activists killed during the weeks-long revolt that ended last month.
Thousands of demonstrators were killed during those protests, according to human rights groups.
Iranian state media reported protests at five universities in Tehran and one in the north-eastern city of Mashhad took place on Sunday.
This latest unrest reflects deep-rooted opposition to the regime, and could affect US plans for a potential attack on Iran, security analysts believe, amid the largest US military build-up in the region for decades.
“In another society, the state kills thousands of people and maybe that society goes silent,” said Farzan Sabet, a Middle East security specialist and managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
“It’s stunning that people are coming out onto the street, and it shows that society remains defiant.
“So the broader wave of protests is very important as a signal to the US that the Islamic Republic is vulnerable.”
“The blood that is spilled cannot be washed away.” Chanted today by students at the University of Tehran. The new round of protests shows that the January massacre has changed Iran forever. They are very courageous. pic.twitter.com/yR4tOHyhzH
— Omid Memarian (@Omid_M) February 22, 2026Kenneth Katzman, an ex-CIA Iran analyst, suggested the protests offered an opportunity for the US to strike, with the US President having previously pledged support to demonstrators.
“It could give Trump one more opportunity to say he’s acting on behalf of protestors, which is how this military build-up got started in January,” he said.
Katzman said the speed with which protests have built up again, even after the Iranian government’s brutal crackdown, showed that the regime is “sharply deteriorating”.
“In the past, the regime has cracked down and it’s been quiet for a year or two before the next uprising, but things have only stayed quiet for four weeks,” he said.
“It shows the population is so reviled, and the revulsion at the regime is so deep, that many people are willing to die to get rid of it.”
Tensions are rising between Washington and Tehran amid the largest deployment of US military assets to the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
A second aircraft carrier strike group, including dozens of fighter aircraft and support vessels, joined last week.
Trump said on Friday he was “considering” an attack on Iran, with negotiations centring on Tehran’s nuclear programme appearing to be at an impasse.
While both sides initially reported “progress” following recent talks in Geneva, fundamental disagreements have surfaced.
Talks have stalled over the US demand for “zero” uranium enrichment, a senior Iranian official told Reuters.
Washington and its Western allies believe an Iranian enrichment programme could be a pathway towards Iran developing a nuclear weapon. Tehran claims its program is for peaceful purposes.
There are also disagreements “regarding the scope and mechanism of sanctions relief” that Iran could receive, the official said.
The US and Israel are also seeking curbs on Iran’s ballistic missile programme, and support for militant groups across the region such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis of Yemen.
Iranian and Russian forces conduct drills in the Indian Ocean (Photo: Masoud Nazari Mehrabi/Iranian Army/AP)Trump is said to be still undecided as to whether to strike Iran. The President said last week that Iran had 10-15 days to agree a deal. “Otherwise bad things happen.”
Senator Lindsey Graham told US outlet Axios that there were “concerns about major military operations in the Middle East given past entanglements”.
Graham urged Trump to strike, claiming this was a rare chance “to bring about historic change” in Iran.
But domestic political concerns could give Trump pause, said Dr Christian Emery, an associate professor in international politics at University College London.
“Trump faces no serious domestic pressure to go to war with Iran. Those most wary of America’s recent forever wars form an important part of his Maga base,” he said.
Mick Mulroy, a former US defence official for the Middle East who served under Trump during his first term, said pressure could grow on Trump to act if the protests turned violent.
“A continued brutal response by the regime would likely only add to the urgency of US military action and potentially the popular support for a major change in the country,” he said.
Trump has previously threatened that violent crackdowns on protestors would be met with military force.
In a social media post on 13 January, as demonstrators across the country poured into the streets chanting anti-regime slogans, Trump urged them to “KEEP PROTESTING… HELP IS ON ITS WAY”. But no military intervention materialised.
Sabet suggests that threat was premature.
“From a defensive consideration, they weren’t militarily ready — vulnerabilities included bases, the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf energy infrastructure,” he said.
The strategic picture has changed since then due to the influx of US military assets to the Middle East.
Washington could now launch strikes on Iran while simultaneously defending its military bases, allies and Israel, security analysts believe.
Meanwhile, Iran is scaling up its own defensive posturing. The regime has fortified its nuclear and defence facilities, according to expert analysis of satellite imagery, and is conducting naval drills with Russian forces.
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Having taken the US to the brink of war, Trump may now struggle to reverse course even if he wanted to.
“By deploying so much military hardware to the region and publicly setting a deadline that now stands at eight to twelve days for Iran to reach an agreement, Trump may have boxed himself in, even if his instincts favour avoiding a risky conflict,” said Emery.
“If protests escalate into renewed violence, his promise that help is on its way will only intensify the pressure on him to act.”
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