England and Ireland meet at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham in a matchup that always delivers drama. We look ahead to Saturday’s Six Nations clash with our England vs Ireland prediction and preview.
England and Ireland both come into this game having each picked up one win and one defeat across their opening two matches. But this fixture feels like it could be a real marker of where both sides are at currently.
Steve Borthwick’s side return home, licking their wounds from yet another Calcutta Cup defeat to Scotland. They will still take to the pitch with plenty of confidence, given the winning run they had been on before their trip to Edinburgh, hoping to prove that result was just a blip.
Meanwhile, Ireland haven’t been able to hit the heights they’ve so consistently reached under Andy Farrell and previously Joe Schmidt. They were well beaten in their opener against France before an unconvincing display at home to Italy.
However, Ireland have had the upper hand against England in recent years, winning four of their last five Six Nations meetings (L1), although the one that got away came in their last visit to the Allianz Stadium – settled by a Marcus Smith drop goal at the death.
It’s a rivalry that has begun to swing unpredictably too: the last two encounters were both won by sides trailing at half‑time, something that had never occurred in this fixture in the Championship.
While England lost in Edinburgh last weekend, at home they have recorded nine straight wins, their best run since 2018 – a 15-game streak that was eventually ended by an Ireland side who have travelled well in recent years.
Farrell’s men have won eight of their last 10 away matches in the Championship, but defeats in their last away game (vs France) and their most recent trip to England take some of the shine off that run.
Recent history between these sides may not point to a clear winner, but one thing is for sure, we can expect heightened tension, huge collisions and a contest where small margins matter.
Where the Game Will Be Won
Some of those small margins might be found in the kicking battle. England have opted more for territory with their kicking so far this Six Nations and, despite struggling in the air against Scotland, it has been a strength of their game in the last 12 months.
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2 days ago Jonathan McCormickIreland have also struggled in this facet of the game in 2026, although they did show signs of improvement against Italy. The opening aerial contests of the match could define how the game will go, should one side find some momentum there early on.
The battle for the gainline will be key, too. England have recorded the best gainline success rate this year (66%), as well as the best dominant carry rate (34%).
Constantly getting over the advantage line has helped at resulting rucks too. Steve Borthwick’s men have completed the highest proportion of their rucks under three seconds this year (61.6%), fractionally ahead of Ireland (61.5%).
Crucially, though, they’ve been able to keep men out of the ruck more often than any other team, with 68% of their attacking rucks requiring the involvement of no more than two players, allowing plenty of options to unleash wave after wave of attack.
Although Ireland haven’t been at their best this year, elements of their defensive work have been good. While England have the best gainline numbers in attack, Ireland have the best in defence, stopping opposition players from reaching the gainline from 32% of their carries – a Championship-high.
If there is a criticism of Ireland though, it is that they are lacking impact in the tackle area, with just 4.3% of their hits being dominant this year. The only team with a lower rate are Wales (3.7%), who are also the only team with a tackle success rate lower than Ireland’s (84.3%, Wales 83.9%).
England vs Ireland Fantasy Picks
If you want a safe bet, Ben Earl is the easy option. Top of the carry charts (39) and with almost twice as many metres (160) gained as any other forward, the Saracens No.8 is guaranteed plenty of opportunities to grab ‘easy’ fantasy points.
He’s also scored a try in each round so far, and could become just the second forward to score in the opening three games of an edition.
3 – Charles Ollivon and Ben Earl have both scored in the first 2⃣ rounds of this year's Men's Six Nations, Dan Sheehan (in 2024) is the only forward to score in the opening 3⃣; in fact, Sheehan is also the only forward to score more tries than Ollivon in the Championship. Chase. pic.twitter.com/ZLw62VeUH1
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) February 18, 2026If you want to go against the grain and select someone different, perhaps George Ford becomes a good option at fly-half. With Matthieu Jalibert and Finn Russell facing Italy and Wales respectively, the England fly-half may be overlooked by many, but he’s a good player to keep the points ticking over.
Since the beginning of the 2023 Rugby World Cup, Ford has slotted eight drop goals in Test rugby, four times as many as the next best players, former teammate Owen Farrell and Ireland’s Ciaran Frawley (both 2) – the latter potentially being a good supersub option.
Those efforts are worth five points each in fantasy rugby and if Ford is in the mood he has the ability to knock over multiple drop goals in a game.
The England playmaker has also assisted 29 line breaks in that same period, the most of any European player, behind only Kiwi duo Damian McKenzie (43) and Beauden Barrett (31) overall, while he sits fourth all-time for try assists in the Men’s Six Nations (21).
There aren’t too many obvious options for Ireland, but Stuart McCloskey has arguably been their standout player this year. He’s assisted three of Ireland’s five tries, a tally bettered only by Jalibert (4), with two of those coming via offloads, which also helps add to the tally.
The Irish bench may provide the best value, though. Nick Timoney and Jack Conan are unlucky to find themselves wearing the 19 and 20 shirts this weekend. Timoney scored as a replacement against France and has the most carries (11) and second most metres (57, behind Henry Pollock – 67) from the bench of any player this year.
Conan, meanwhile, has four tries in his last six matches in the Six Nations, including two from the bench, while he generally racks up big carry and tackle numbers.
England vs Ireland Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has England as comfortable favourites for this one. Their strong home record and Ireland’s waning form means Steve Borthwick’s side are given a 76.6% likelihood of coming out on top on Saturday afternoon.
The model also expects Ireland to fail to get within losing bonus point range, suggesting England will win by 13 points with 31-18 the most likely score based on the supercomputer simulations.
England vs Ireland Lineups
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Henry Arundell, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell; 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3 Joe Heyes, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 5 Ollie Chessum, 6 Tom Curry, 7 Ben Earl, 8 Henry Pollock.
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Trevor Davison, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Guy Pepper, 21 Sam Underhill, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 Marcus Smith.
Ireland: 15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Robert Baloucoune, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park; 1 Jeremy Loughman, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Tadhg Furlong; 4 Joe McCarthy, 5 James Ryan; 6 Tadhg Beirne, 7 Josh van der Flier, 8 Caelan Doris (c).
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Tom O’Toole, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Nick Timoney, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Ciaran Frawley, 23 Tommy O’Brien.
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England vs Ireland Prediction: Six Nations 2026 Preview Opta Analyst.
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