With the league phase behind us, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every first leg of the knockout phase play-offs.
After the chaos and drama of the 2025-26 Champions League league phase, the competition now turns to the knockout rounds. First up are the play-offs, where teams who finished between ninth and 24th face off across two legs for a place in the last 16.
As throughout the competition, the Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way and the model has once again got data-backed predictions for all matches for us to pore over.
Here is how it expects each first leg to play out.
Tuesday 17 February
Galatasaray vs Juventus
The early kick-off on Tuesday sees Juventus travel to Galatasaray. This will be the seventh Champions League meeting between the two teams, but their first in the knockout rounds.
The Turkish side have lost only one of the previous six encounters (W2 D3) between these two teams, and won the most recent meeting 1-0, though that was way back in December 2013.
Perhaps more relevant, then, is Galatasaray’s recent home record in major European competitions. They have lost just one of their last 11 at home (W6 D4), with that defeat coming against Union Saint-Gilloise last November (1-0).
Juventus were in real danger of not making it through the group stage, sitting as low as 26th after MD4. Since the arrival of Luciano Spalletti, however, they are unbeaten in five Champions League matches (W3 D2) and have kept clean sheets in each of their last three.
Despite Galatasaray’s strong home form, Juventus are rated favourites for the first leg, winning 44.0% of the pre-match simulations. Galatasaray have a 29.9% chance of taking a lead to Turin, while the draw occurred 26.1% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund welcome Atalanta after both sides faded late in the league phase.
The Italians had risen as high as fifth in the league table after a 2-1 win over Chelsea on MD6, but back-to-back defeats against Athletic Club and Union Saint-Gilloise damaged their top-eight hopes and they eventually fell to 15th.
They travel to Germany to face a Borussia Dortmund side who also lost their last two matches in the league phase, both by 2-0 scorelines against Tottenham and Internazionale. Niko Kovac’s side are in great form domestically, though, with a 4-0 win over Mainz on Friday their sixth straight win in the Bundesliga.
Their recent record against Italian clubs is mixed, however, with just one win in their last seven Champions League meetings with Serie A opposition (D3 L3).
The knockout stages haven’t been kind to Atalanta of late. They’ve lost each of their last five Champions League knockout games, losing 2-1 to PSG in the quarter-final in 2019-20, 4-1 on aggregate vs Real Madrid in the 2020-21 round of 16 and 5-2 on aggregate vs Club Brugge at the play-off stage last season.
Does anyone want to win this one? The Opta supercomputer has Dortmund (47.5%) as the favourites to win on the night, ahead of an Atalanta win (27.9%) and a draw (24.5%).
Benfica vs Real Madrid
The rematch everyone wanted to see. Benfica and Real Madrid met on the final matchday of the league phase and played out a remarkable contest.
Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored a last-minute header to secure the result that sent José Mourinho’s side into the play-offs on goal difference at the expense of Marseille. It was the final goal and final touch of the entire league phase.
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Real Madrid are the favourites to win on the night (47.0%), but the Lisbon miracle shows anything can happen. Benfica have a 28.7% of repeating their efforts from MD8, while the draw comes in at 24.3%.
Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain
An all-French contest completes the fixtures on Tuesday night, as Champions League holders PSG travel to fellow Ligue 1 side Monaco.
They have never previously met in European competition, though Monaco won their most recent domestic meeting 1-0 in November.
PSG’s normal cruise to domestic triumph isn’t going as swimmingly as it usually does this season. A 3-1 defeat at Rennes at the weekend allowed Lens to leapfrog them into first place in Ligue 1. Luis Enrique’s side are a point behind with 12 games to play.
PSG met French opposition on their way to the Champions League trophy last year, thrashing Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the play-off round, the second-biggest aggregate victory in the competition’s history.
They flattered to deceive in the league phase, finishing 11th after failing to win any of their last three games. Then again, they also barely scraped into the knockout rounds after a poor league phase last season, and look where they ended up.
Luis Enrique’s side clearly are capable of turning it on when it matters. They’ve won 67% of their matches in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League under the Spaniard (10/15), compared to 45% of their games in the league/group phase of the competition (10/22).
Six positions and 20 points separate these two sides in the French top flight, and the Opta supercomputer reflects that gap in its predictions. It gives PSG a strong 56.5% of winning, compared to just 20.7% for Monaco.
Wednesday 18 February
Qarabag vs Newcastle
Newcastle United earned a very respectable draw at PSG on MD8, but sadly for them, it wasn’t enough to finish inside the top eight.
They must surely be happy with their play-off draw, though, going up against Qarabag, the lowest-ranked team left in the tournament according to the Opta Power Rankings (152nd in the world).
Despite travelling the mammoth 2,529 miles to Azerbaijan – the longest distance ever travelled by an English team for a UEFA Champions League away match – Eddie Howe’s side should be confident of returning with a win. They are strong away favourites, winning the game in 63.6% of simulations. Qarabag emerged victorious just 15.8% of the time.
This will be the 10th European meeting between sides from Azerbaijan and England (all involving Qarabag), with the English side unbeaten and winning on eight occasions (D1).
Bodø/Glimt vs Internazionale
Anyone thinking this could be a complete walkover for Internazionale only needs to look at Bodø/Glimt’s last two results in the league phase to see the error of their ways.
Wins over Manchester City (3-1) and Atlético Madrid (2-1) in their final two matches highlight their threat, and they could become the first Norwegian side to win three straight matches in the European Cup or Champions League.
That said, Inter are masters at this stage of the competition. Two of their last three defeats in Champions League knockout football have come in finals, against PSG in 2024-25 and Manchester City in 2022-23. Excluding finals, they have lost only one of their last 15 knockout matches in the competition (W10 D4), away to Atlético Madrid in March 2024.
The Opta supercomputer expects Inter to get the job done, winning 53.2% of the time. A home win (23.8%) and a draw (23.0%) are rated almost equally likely.
Club Brugge vs Atlético Madrid
Club Brugge host Atlético Madrid, who come into this meeting on the back of a mixed week. They demolished Barcelona 4-0 in the first-leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final last midweek, but then succumbed 3-0 to Rayo Vallecano at the weekend to dent their faint title hopes.
The head-to-head record between these two sides is finely balanced across eight previous European meetings, with three wins each and two draws.
Atlético are favourites for this tie at 47.5%, but defensive solidity has recently deserted them. They have conceded in each of their last eight Champions League matches, shipping 15 goals. Another game without a clean sheet would mark their longest such run in the competition.
Club Brugge still carry a significant upset chance, winning 27.9% of simulations. The draw comes in at 24.6%.
Olympiakos vs Bayer Leverkusen
Olympiakos and Bayer Leverkusen have faced each other as recently as this season’s league stage. They met in Greece on MD7 of the league phase, with Olympiakos winning 2-0 despite Leverkusen controlling much of the game.
That victory was one of three in Olympiakos’ final three matches of this season’s league phase and they will be looking to win four consecutive games in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League for the first time in their history (this will be their 165th match across the two competitions).
Leverkusen really struggle at the business end of this competition. Of teams with 10+ matches played in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, they have the worst win percentage (11%), winning just two of their 19 played (D4 L13).
With those factors in mind, Olympiakos are the slight favourites with the Opta supercomputer here, winning in 39.5% of simulations. That’s slightly higher than Leverkusen’s 33.8%.
All data correct as of Monday 16 February
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UEFA Champions League: Knockout Phase Play-Off Predictions Opta Analyst.
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