President Trump is in a massive sulk over the upcoming White House governors dinner on 20 February. His own side is unhappy and Democrats are boycotting the traditionally bipartisan affair after he initially declined to invite two Democratic governors.
The row blew up because the President is furious with one governor for refusing to pardon an jailed election denier in his state. The other missing Democrat is Black and has drawn his own conclusions about why he is NFI.
Trump is pathologically obsessed with declaring himself the winner of the 2020 election. He admitted at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington last week: “I had to win it. I needed it for my own ego.”
It is alarming enough that he is insisting on rewriting history. But there is every sign he has no intention of losing again. Proof is piling up that he plans to “steal” the November midterm elections for the Republicans – if he can.
How can this be achieved? First, some mischievous (but not wild) speculation. Trump has already pardoned prisoners convicted over the 6 January Capitol riot of 2021. He wants the governor of Colorado to free Tina Peters, a jailed county election clerk. But there is a bigger fish sitting in jail.
Trump supporters still bang on about debunked claims that Venezuela helped to steal the 2020 election. Imagine if the former dictator, Nicolas Maduro, currently housed in a Brooklyn prison, were to back up these claims in exchange for a pardon. He could be cynical and desperate enough to do this.
Businessman Mike Lindell – known as the “My Pillow Guy” – a big Maga booster, said: “I’m hoping now that Maduro will actually come clean and tell us everything about the [voting] machines and how they steal elections.”
There are more concrete plans afoot. This month, Trump told former FBI deputy director Dan Bongino on a podcast that Republicans should “nationalise” elections. “The Republicans should say, ‘We want to take over. We should take over the voting in at least 15 places,’” he said.
It doesn’t take much imagination to know where these 15 places might be. We’ve already had a dress rehearsal. In 2020, when he was previously president, Trump rage-tweeted “Stop the Count” on election night when the results weren’t going his way.
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He wanted to seize the voting records and challenge the results in the big Democratic cities in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan. Will he be luckier – or better prepared – next time?
Last Wednesday the House of Representatives passed the Trump-backed “SAVE America Act”, designed to tighten voter identification rules, reduce mail-in ballots and enable the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to seize voter rolls in any state.
This – together with Steve Bannon’s prediction that ICE will “surround the polls come November”, terrifying legitimate voters from minority communities from turning up lest they be carted off by immigration police – could lead to widespread voter suppression.
The bill would need a filibuster to pass the Senate, so won’t become law, but when have constitutional niceties stopped this President? The purpose of the bill is to permit Trump to behave with as much impunity as he can get away with during the mid-terms – and beyond.
If the Republicans win convincingly in November, rigging the results won’t be necessary. But Trump is currently polling below Joe Biden.
A narrow majority of voters think Trump is doing a worse job than Biden by 51-49 per cent, according to a Harvard-Harris poll. This time last year 58 per cent of voters thought he was doing better than his old adversary. How wounding this reversal must be for Trump’s fragile ego.
If the results of the midterms are close, the election scenarios could really turn dark – with attempts to delegitimise the results.
In a podcast this week, Stephen Richer, a former Republican election official in Maricopa County, Arizona, where the 2020 results were hotly disputed, told Atlantic writer David Frum about his fears for the future.
“I still think President Trump is most potent still in the post-election procedures, still in sowing doubt in the minds of enough Americans that they don’t think the elections are legitimate and, therefore… Congress doesn’t have to seat its new members,” he said.
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Richer referred to a “popular theory” that Mike Johnson, the compliant Republican Speaker of the House, would choose not to seat the winners of disputed contests. This would send us right back in time to January 2021, when Trump called on Vice-President Mike Pence to refuse to certify Biden’s win.
Pence stood fast, cited his loyalty to the US constitution and said he didn’t have the right to discard electoral votes. Despite this, 147 craven Republican members of Congress backed Trump and voted to overturn the results.
In the five years since, Republican lawmakers have become yet more cowed and obedient to Trump. Can they be counted on to do the right thing? The fate of American democracy could rest in their hands.
Sarah Baxter is director of the Marie Colvin Center for International Reporting
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