France travel to Cardiff on a high after their comprehensive win against Ireland. Can Wales do the unthinkable and topple Les Bleus in Round 2? We look ahead to Sunday’s Six Nations’ clash with our Wales vs France prediction and preview.
France and Wales come into Sunday’s clash in Cardiff with vastly different outlooks. Les Bleus arrive on a high after dismantling Ireland in the opening round, while Steve Tandy’s men left Twickenham licking their wounds after a heavy defeat to neighbours England.
Wales were once a real bogey team for France. They won eight of nine meetings in all competitions between 2012 and 2019 but have since lost seven in a row against them. It’s their longest such run since the game turned professional, with Wales last suffering as long a run between 1983 and 1993 (L12).
Even home advantage isn’t likely to help Wales; their nine-game losing run in the Six Nations is their longest in any iteration of the Championship.
In contrast, France have won eight of their last 10 away games, registering their record points total on the road against their five opponents at some point during that run.
Where the Game Will Be Won
France were ruthlessly efficient against Ireland in Round 1, winning the kicking battle and using their offloading game to cut Ireland open.
France proved difficult to stop as a result, evading 28% of tackles they faced against Ireland, the best rate of any team. Wales will need to be sharp in defence, not just to stop the French ball carriers in their tracks but also to try and counter their offloading game.
While France were evading tackles, Wales were more likely to take a route into contact on Saturday against England, with a round-high 72% of their carries committing two or more opposition defenders.
The merits of taking contact so regularly can be debated, but it does suggest that if Wales can move the ball quickly after these carries then there should be spaces to exploit elsewhere on the pitch.
Wales’ general profligacy will be a worry for their coaching staff. However, a more positive outlook would be that they at least managed to put themselves in good positions to score tries.
Wales had 46 passages of possession against England, with 15% of those possessions starting inside the England 22 – the highest such rate of any team in Round 1, with only England having more such possessions in total (nine, Wales seven).
As a result, our expected tries model suggests Wales could have scored five tries. You can find more advanced stats like this on our Six Nations Stats Hub.
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Louis Bielle-Biarrey is the obvious pick when looking for try scorers and he shows no signs of slowing down. He’s crossed the try line in each of his last six matches in the Championship and his two five-pointers against Ireland represented his 10th and 11th tries in the tournament in just his 10th appearance.
10 – Louis Bielle-Biarrey's opening try against Ireland was his 10th in the Men's Six Nations in just his 10th appearance, the joint quickest player to reach 10 tries in the Championship alongside @WillGreenwood. Dix. pic.twitter.com/M7V7gS6n3a
— OptaJonny (@OptaJonny) February 5, 2026However, if you’re looking for an alternative option, someone to differentiate your fantasy team from the rest, then Les Bleus’ other flying winger Theo Attissogbe is also a great option. He’s scored in all three of his Six Nations appearances for France, crossing the try line four times in total and averaging 1.3 tries per 80 minutes, a tally only Bielle-Biarrey (1.7) can better.
He’s not just a try scorer though. Only two players have registered more line breaks than Attissogbe in the tournament since the beginning of 2025, despite him playing just three of a possible six games; his average of three line breaks per 80 minutes is comfortably the best of any player.
For Wales, Aaron Wainwright is likely to be busy in both attack and defence. He was one of just six players, and the only Welshman, to hit double figures for both carries (13) and tackles (10) in Round 1.
He made those carries count too, beating six defenders, at least two more than any forward. It’s the second time he’s beaten 5+ defenders in a Six Nations match across the last three campaigns – no other forward has managed it more than once.
Wales vs France Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gave Wales just a 6.9% shot of beating England last weekend at Twickenham. This week see their chance of victory drop even further to 5.8%.
We have France at 94.1% favourites to open their campaign with back-to-back victories. The last time they won their two opening matches they went on to claim a Grand Slam (2022).
The score predictor suggests France will emerge 38-11 winners, although if Fabien Galthie’s men really turn on the afterburners, the score could be even more chastening.
Wales vs France Lineups
Wales: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Owen Watkin, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Tomos Williams; 1 Gareth Thomas, 2 Ryan Elias, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 4 Will Rowlands, 5 Adam Beard, 6 Dafydd Jenkins (c), 7 Tommy Reffell, 8 Aaron Wainwright Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Corey Domachowski, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Alex Mann, 20 Mackenzie Martin, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Mason Grady.
France: 15 Leo Barre, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Nicolas Depoortere, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Thomas Ramos, 9 Nolann Le Garrec; 1 Cyril Baille, 2 Julian Marchand, 3 Uini Atonio, 4 Thibaud Flament, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 6 Francois Cros, 7 Charles Ollivon, 8 Gregory Aldritt (c).
Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Sebastien Taofifenua, 18 Georges-Henri Colombe, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Alexandre Roumat, 21 Paul Boudehent, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Yoram Moefana.
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Wales vs France Prediction: Six Nations 2026 Preview Opta Analyst.
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