ROCHESTER, N.Y. – There is no doubt this has been a long, challenging winter for Rochesterians. Temperatures over the past two to two-and-a-half weeks clearly reflect that pattern, with readings consistently below seasonal averages. And at times, temperatures have been significantly below normal. The good news is that a noticeable change appears to be on the way. Over the next 10 days, average temperatures are expected to rise considerably which will be a welcome relief for most of us.
So why was the first half of winter so harsh across Western New York? The answer lies in the positioning of the upper-level winds, commonly referred to as the jet stream, across North America. One dominant feature has been the presence of a Greenland block. This pattern forces the jet stream to arc northward across the far North Atlantic, effectively slowing or even stalling the typical west-to-east movement of weather systems.
When this occurs, cold Arctic air becomes trapped and has few places to go. Due to its density, that bitterly cold air is forced southward into the Great Lakes region, resulting in prolonged periods of below normal temperatures. In contrast, the opposite pattern often develops across the western United States, where unseasonably warm and dry conditions can remain locked in place.
So where do we go from here? Forecast models suggest a significant pattern shift may develop over the next one to two weeks, potentially bringing us toward the end of February. If this change occurs, the Greenland block would weaken or disappear, allowing a more progressive west-to-east flow to return. This would also increase the likelihood that Arctic air retreats northward, reducing the frequency of the extreme cold.
One remaining question is how this evolving pattern may affect precipitation types across Western New York. With moderating temperatures, the risk of mixed precipitation events could increase.
Regardless of the pattern, one thing remains certain. Weather in our region continues to be a complex challenge.
First Alert Weather In-Depth: How the Greenland block shaped this winter WHEC.com.
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