The two teams atop the SEC standings face off on Saturday night in College Station when Texas A&M hosts No. 17 Florida. ESPN Analytics recently weighed in on the outcome.
The Aggies have yet to drop a conference game at Reed Arena this season, but that’s in danger on Saturday night. Florida is the betting favorite, and according to ESPN’s model, the Gators have a win probability of 57.8%.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Florida opened as a 4.5-point favorite. That line is up to 7.5 points as of Friday night. The movement is likely due to how the 2 teams fared last time out against a common opponent.
Texas A&M entered the week as the top team in the SEC standings at 7-1, but lost to Alabama in midweek action. The game in Tuscaloosa was a back-and-forth battle that saw 28 lead changes. The Crimson Tide won 100-97, but A&M had a chance to tie at the buzzer.
Florida is coming off a dominating win over that same Alabama squad. The Gators made a statement with a 100-77 blowout. Todd Golden‘s team has been off since, and is 16-6 overall and 7-2 in SEC play.
Texas A&M is 12-1 at home this season. The Aggies haven’t lost at home since Nov. 14 against UCF. TAMU’s home SEC wins include victories over LSU, Oklahoma, Mississippi State and South Carolina.
Five of Florida’s 6 losses on the season have come away from home. The Gators are 3-2 in true road games and 3-3 in neutral-site meetings. UF’s SEC road loss came at Mizzou on Jan. 3.
Prediction Markets 2026 College Basketball Champion? Kalshi Arizona 18.0% Michigan 16.0% Duke 14.0% Illinois 10.0% UConn 8.0% Houston 8.0% Kansas 6.0% Florida 6.0% Iowa St. 4.0% Purdue 4.0% Predict Learn more about Prediction MarketsESPN Analytics predicts the outcome of Texas A&M vs. Florida showdown for first place Saturday Down South.
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