A Home Office push to widen its one-in, one-out migrant returns deal is likely to be rebuffed by Germany – in a blow for Labour’s plan to grip the Channel crisis.
Ministers have made clear they want to expand the pilot scheme with France, by which the UK takes in migrants from the continent while sending back those who have entered Britain on small boats.
As well as increasing the numbers exchanged with France, Alex Norris – the Border Security minister – said in December “it would be my hope” for more countries to join the scheme, with Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands reportedly in the frame.
However, The i Paper understands Berlin is likely to rebuff Home Office efforts to expand the agreement, seen as a key measure to tackle the small boats crisis.
In 2025, around 41,000 people were spotted crossing the Channel on small boats – a 13 per cent increase on 2024, but still fewer than the 45,755 detected in 2022.
Germany is understood to have concerns both about whether joining the one-in, one-out scheme would comply with domestic law – and the politics of the move.
One diplomatic source said migration is also expected to be a big issue in the difficult upcoming German regional elections.
This could make it tricky for Chancellor Friedrich Merz to sign a deal which would see the country take in migrants from the UK, despite Germany and Britain recently signing a joint action plan on migration and recently specifically criminalising smuggling to the UK.
The expiry of the UK-France pilot in June is expected by some in Europe to be a decision point both on whether to expand the scheme. It could also be the point at which other countries in the Calais Group of allies that cooperate on migration – Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands – decide if they will join.
More than 41,000 people crossed the Channel on small boats in 2025 (Photo: Ben Stansall/AFP)It is understood there is some evidence that migrants are becoming more aware that they could be sent back to France if they cross the Channel, but the scheme still needs scaling up if it is to have the desired deterrent effect.
Last month, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood revealed the UK has sent back 281 migrants to France and taken in 350 during the operation of the pilot scheme as the Government aims to show “proof of concept” before pushing to scale up the scheme.
But The i Paper understands there is scepticism among some in Europe about whether the one-in, one-out deal would be easy to expand.
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It would require faster processing of asylum claims, detention space for thousands in the UK, many more deportation flights, and much more holding space in France for those sent there from Britain.
Brussels is also monitoring the one-in, one-out deal, to see if a wider UK-EU returns deal may be possible in future.
But that is likely to be some way off and potentially impossible unless there is also an agreement to set up so-called “return hubs” in non-European countries, where migrants can be deported, as voters in the continent are not likely to accept big numbers of failed asylum seekers from the UK.
Speaking in December, Norris was asked by the Lords International Agreements Committee whether the Government was seeking to expand the one-in, one-out deal to other countries.
He responded: “Yes, it would be my hope.
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“Where we are today, which is proving the concept, is not the summit of my ambition.
“We would like to do more through this scheme and we would like to do this type of activity with more countries.”
Meanwhile, Mahmood confirmed that a third African country – the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – has agreed to take back illegal immigrants after the UK threatened in December to block visas for its citizens.
Angola and Namibia both said they would take back their citizens in December, a month after Mahmood identified them as possible targets for penalties.
On Friday, the Home Office announced the DRC had now agreed to cooperate.
Addressing the potential expansion of the one-in, one-out deal, a Home Office spokeswoman said: “There’s no silver bullet to tackle the global challenge of illegal migration.
“That’s why we have announced the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times to remove the incentives which draw people to the UK illegally and scale up removals of those with no right to be here.
“We have removed or deported nearly 60,000 illegal migrants and foreign criminals since this government took office, as we restore order and control to our borders.”
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