There’s a crunch by-election battle about to erupt in Gorton and Denton – and it might just define Sir Keir Starmer’s political future.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has framed the Greater Manchester by-election – in what is usually Labour’s home turf – as a referendum on the Prime Minister.
And, for the Green Party of England and Wales, the vote later this month is a chance to show they are not just an election threat in areas they have a strong political history, but can steal Labour voters from Starmer anywhere in the country.
Crucially, the by-election will reveal just how much political polling – which often puts Reform slightly ahead in the constituency – is translating into real votes.
It’s all to play for – and for some in Labour the vote is borderline existential.
One MP said nothing other than coming first or, at worst, second in the by-election would be viable for the party. “Coming third is a possibility and that’s the end. The Labour Party dies as a national force.”
The MP gloomily added that those campaigning on doorsteps are having a tough time. “I hear Gorton is bad. People are coming back miserable,” they said.
But party campaign sources are – perhaps surprisingly – upbeat about the chances of their candidate, Angeliki Stogia, being able to hold on to the seat for Labour.
Is third place the end for Labour?
The by-election was called when former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne stood down in January, citing health reasons.
Gwynne won the seat for Labour with more than half the vote – 18,555 – in 2024 while Reform came second on 5,142 votes, narrowly beating the Greens with 4,810.
“I think it will be a really interesting case study on whether we can unite progressive votes and if that is enough to save us, though this seat is not necessarily the type of seat we need to win at the next election but is definitely part of the new electoral coalition,” one Labour source said.
Bookmakers suggest the 26 February vote will be a three-horse race between Labour, Reform and the Greens.
Polling experts say the constituency is extremely difficult to survey accurately, meaning there is very little reliable data indicating which party is building the most support.
Labour is working hard to frame the contest as a two-horse race between themselves and Reform, who selected a controversial candidate in Matthew Goodwin, in an effort to discourage left-wing voters peeling off to support the Greens.
Labour has attacked Green Party leaflets which it claimed are based on dodgy data and accused leader Zack Polanski of “bottling it” by not standing in the seat himself.
“The Greens are trying to talk themselves into the race but it’s not going to work,” a Labour campaign source said. They said internal polling, which is not made public, shows the Green presence is not as significant as has been suggested. Green sources dispute this, arguing data gathered from the hundreds of volunteers out knocking thousands of doors suggests otherwise.
Labour’s biggest concern is that the left-wing vote is split – opening the door for a Reform victory. They are not the only ones. The i Paper revealed this week that former Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable has urged voters to back Labour to keep out Reform – indicating an appetite on the left for tactical voting.
But Green candidate, Hannah Spencer, dismissed the suggestion that her party was not a serious challenger in this election.
The Greens have previously indicated that they would be willing to work with other parts of the left – including Labour – in order to block Farage gains.
However, that does not appear to apply in Gorton and Denton, with leader Polanski framing the by-election as a “Greens vs Reform” battle – an indication they want to deliver a blow to Starmer.
Voters ‘feel taken for granted’
Spencer said voters were angry about the state of politics and how the by-election was triggered – Gwynne’s initial resignation followed after he was found to have made disparaging remarks about a constituent in a WhatsApp group.
“We’ve been out this afternoon and the first door we knocked on was two people who were really, really angry about the Andrew Gwynne situation and they felt left down about how the by-election then just became used by individuals in the Labour Party to play out their own career. A lot of people who voted Labour at the last election really feel taken for granted,” she said.
Spencer was referring to the row over the decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in the seat over his possible attempt to try to launch a leadership challenge against Starmer if he ended up in Parliament.
This damaging public discord was followed by the Westminster scandal over Peter Mandelson’s links to Jeffrey Epstein – and how much Starmer knew about it before he appointed Mndelson as US ambassador.
Zack Polanski has attempted to frame the Gorton and Denton by-election as a battle between the Greens and Reform (Photo: Guy Smallman/Getty)These issues have only served to weaken Labour’s position in this race, Reform and Green sources say.
“If it doesn’t come up it’s because people already are at their lowest in terms of how they think about politicians,” Spencer said.
“I hope we can really change that, to start to shift the power away from people who do things like [Mandelson] and put it back into the hands of normal people.”
“People have not been mentioning the issue around Mandelson a great deal so far but by the weekend I think, given the scale of the scandal, it will be on the agenda,” a Reform source said.
“This kind of issue is the sort of thing that changes how people vote, even if it’s not the first thing they bring up on the doorsteps when talking to their local candidate.”
The Reform insider said the most common issue being brought up by voters was “a feeling of being ignored”, adding: “This is a place Labour have taken for granted.
“The fact we are even in with a chance of winning a seat like this is significant – if we win it will be the biggest upset in by-election history.”
Party sources claim Goodwin, who has been taken to task for past remarks implying people of colour are not inherently British, is not attracting criticism on the doorsteps.
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“He is only controversial to the Westminster bubble,” a source claimed, “And actually Reform are fighting the most positive campaign of all the parties involved. A lot of people are telling us they support us and our policies.”
But Labour has launched attacks on Goodwin on social media, sharing a video of the Reform candidate saying he was “unfortunate to be in Manchester” – and now running for a seat in the region.
However, Reform claimed the 2023 video was “misleading”, saying Goodwin was referring to the Conservative Party Conference taking place in the city.
The Labour Party’s approach has been a focus on local investment – with the Government promising money to upgrade high streets and invest in deprived communities – as well as sending big hitters from the Cabinet to the area to campaign (perhaps tellingly, the Prime Minister himself had not visited the constituency, at the time of publication).
A Labour source said: “This will be a good test to see how much of the polling and Westminster bubble news is actually being translated into voting.”
A full list of candidates for the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February:
Angeliki Stogia, Labour Party Charlotte Cadden, Conservative Party Dan Clarke, Libertarian Party Hannah Spencer, Green Party of England and Wales Hugo Wils, Communist League Jackie Pearcey, Liberal Democrats Joseph O’Meachair, Rejoin EU Matt Goodwin, Reform UK Nick Buckley, Advance UK Sebastian Moore, Social Democratic Party Sir Oink A-Lot, The Official Monster Raving Loony PartyHence then, the article about the dirty by election battle that will define starmer s future was published today ( ) and is available on inews ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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