Sir Keir Starmer faces one of the toughest challenges of his political leadership yet, with his own MPs calling for drastic changes in No10 if he is to continue to command authority as Prime Minister.
The i Paper has been reporting since November about restless MPs beginning to question how long Starmer will remain as party leader.
MPs had become increasingly impatient with what they perceive to be poor communications and weak leadership coming from No10.
And fingers have been pointed at Starmer and his chief of staff, the man behind the party’s successful general election campaign, Morgan McSweeney.
Now, MPs are questioning how Peter Mandelson – a Labour Party veteran who had a reputation for political controversy even before questions around his friendship with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein – was handed the critical role of ambassador to the US.
That anger was turned directly onto Starmer after he admitted on Wednesday that he knew Mandelson had contact with Epstein – and still decided to appoint him.
The Prime Minister has claimed that Mandelson “lied” about the depth of this relationship, and made it seem like Epstein was someone he “barely knew”.
What could happen next?
Starmer limps on, risking mounting anger from MPs
Unless he faces a formal leadership challenge (more on that later) it seems unlikely – at the moment – that Starmer would voluntarily step down as party leader.
As he has said himself, he relatively recently led his party to a significant election victory and, when voters gave Labour MPs their support in 2024, they did so based on his policy platform and with the assumption that he would be leader.
But doing nothing is risky for the PM because it allows MP frustration to slip into resentment and, increasingly, anger.
Labour MPs have already felt emboldened enough to rebel over policies they do not agree with and, with some crucial legislation coming down the tracks on education reform and migration rules, they could cause Starmer a lot of parliamentary pain.
Indeed, if the government gets to a point where it cannot pass legislation to enact policies promised in its election manifesto then there is a serious question over whether it can truly govern.
Fury from MPs – if not addressed – could lead to a government that is unable to make changes despite its majority.
Leadership challengers begin serious manoeuvres – but wait to strike
Whilst there has been plenty of talk about leadership challenges, the only actual attempt seems to have come from Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.
After his attempt to become a Labour MP was blocked, he technically cannot challenge the Prime Minister in any formal way.
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But perhaps now is the time for contenders – whether its Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner – to kickstart a serious challenge and get a campaign ready to go.
As has been widely reported, neither of them are in a position to launch a formal challenge against Starmer right now.
But if they can see Starmer’s authority has been wounded, now could be the opportune moment to begin gathering support in earnest to craft a leadership campaign.
Then, at an opportune moment of weakness for Starmer – whether that be after the upcoming by-election, or local elections in May – any contender would be primed to make their move.
Starmer purges No10 in an attempt to reset his premiership
A lot of the heat from MPs has been directed at Starmer’s right hand man, Morgan McSweeney, who is running the Downing Street operation.
He is said to be one of the key figures behind the appointment of Mandelson as ambassador and the pair were reportedly in close contact throughout Labour’s transition into power.
Some in the party have been openly demanding that McSweeney is sacked and questioning how good his political judgement really is.
By removing him from the job, Starmer would take a lot of the heat off himself and allow someone else to be the fall guy for these perceived failures.
Given McSweeney’s success in running election campaigns, the PM could try to soften the blow by moving him into a more campaign-focused role and replacing him with someone else able to pull the strings in No10.
The PM is forced to resign
There are a few scenarios under which the PM could be forced to step down.
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Firstly, he could come under mounting pressure from the Cabinet to resign voluntarily, which would then trigger a party leadership contest.
Ministers would not be prepared to do this without a viable alternative leader who they believe could step into the role and command authority of the party, without an immediate election.
Alternatively, MPs could trigger a challenge while he is still in post.
This would still require a genuine leadership rival to come forward with the support of at least 80 other MPs – 20 per cent of the parliamentary party – and the support of party affiliates or local constituency groups.
This would then trigger a ballot of the party membership.
If Starmer lost, he would be forced to step down as leader and Prime Minister.
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