It’s hardly surprising that after two straight weeks of sub-freezing temperatures that the Chicago area was looking for any sign of hope they could get on Groundhog Day.
The tradition of Groundhog Day dates back centuries, with the conceit that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow and sees its shadow, it means that there will be six more weeks of winter. If there is no shadow, then an early spring will occur.
Punxsatawney Phil is undoubtedly the world’s most famous forecast groundhog, and his forecasts have been going on since the 1880s.
Other places around the U.S. and Canada have followed suit, including several in Illinois, notably Woodstock Willie, who lives in the town where the iconic film “Groundhog Day” was filmed in the 1990s.
The real question though is just how accurate are the forecasts of these woodchuck wunderkinds?
Fortunately, the National Weather Service has compiled data over the last 20 years, and Illinois’ representatives have acquitted themselves well.
According to NWS data, Woodstock Willie has been accurate in his forecast 60% of the time since 2006, tying him for seventh nationally with Ohio’s Buckeye Chuck and West Virginia’s French Creek Freddie.
Willie isn’t the top (ground)hog in the state, though. That honor goes to Gertie the Groundhog, who offers up forecasts at the Wildlife Prairie Park near Peoria. Gertie’s average is slightly better at 65%, tying with Wisconsin’s Jimmy the Groundhog.
For those curious, Staten Island Chuck, who resides at the Staten Island Zoo in New York, has the best track record for forecasts, hitting on them 85% of the time.
Shockingly, the iconic Punxsutawney Phil is tied for the worst groundhog at predicting when spring will arrive, hitting on just 35% of his predictions.
And now, drumroll please, here are the predictions of some of America’s groundhog experts.
Staten Island Chuck – Six more weeks of winter
Punxsutawney Phil – Six more weeks of winter
Woodstock Willie – Early spring
Gertie the Groundhog – Six more weeks of winter
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