ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Tens of thousands of people gathered in Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania on Monday as Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog that lives in a tree stump, predicted six more weeks of winter.
Phil’s forecast has been a tradition since 1887. If he sees his shadow, the prediction is six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, an early spring is said to be on the way. But did you know that Phil is only 35% accurate? In other words, a coin flip is more accurate.
They may not get as much attention, but there are some groundhogs more accurate than Phil, including one in Western New York.
One groundhog, Staten Island Chuck, has been making predictions since 1981 and has been strangely accurate. He’s gotten it right 85% of the time. Besides Phil, the groundhog that’s been making predictions for the longest is Dunkirk Dave in Chautauqua County. Since 1960, he’s tried to predict how harsh spring will be, not when it will start. He’s been about 50% accurate.
The closest to home is Buffalo Bert. He’s new to the game, making predictions since 2014, but has been 100% accurate. That’s likely because they always make sure he sees his shadow and six more weeks of winter is a good guess in Western New York.
Groundhog Day: Other groundhogs, including one in Buffalo, are more accurate than Phil WHEC.com.
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