Although the offseason is not yet complete – there are a large number of starting pitchers still unsigned, for example – we are just about into February, and, with the player ZiPS projections all out at FanGraphs, I think it was a perfectly reasonable time for Dan Szymborski to drop the first set of standings projections.
You can read about the methodology behind the projections here, and it is INTENSE. The end result comes from literally a million simulations of the season ahead (all with a huge volume of inputs into each, from the player ZiPS to the playing time projections to injury risks to the strength of schedule and on and on). It’s about as good as it gets on this front, though we always have to keep in mind the fundamental nature of baseball: it’s super unpredictable. Things are going to swing wildly in the real world, and a median set of projections is just an approximation of the most likely outcome. But even within a world where we are gathering up 30 individually most likely outcomes, we know that many of them will obviously not land on the median! Because the real season is just one in a million possible outcomes, so to speak.
Still, Szymborski says that, over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.1 correct Vegas over-under calls on win totals for the 30 MLB teams, which is actually extremely good!
There’s a ton to digest in the projections and associated discussion, and you can and should check it all out at FanGraphs. I expect, though, that what you want to see most is the NL Central projection:
(via FanGraphs)Not too bad there, as far as median projections go. I think the Cubs would like to be around 90 wins on paper at the median, but 87 (the 4th highest total in the NL) is not bad for a conservative system. Consider that the Dodgers’ projection is “only” 96 wins, and you can see why 87 ain’t exactly a personal attack.
But there are the Brewers. Obviously. Right alongside the Cubs, which is actually a bit concerning given that the Brewers routinely outperform these kinds of projections. Hopefully the Cubs can do the same.
Actually, hopefully the Cubs can way outperform their median projection and finish with a top-two record in the league, earning that first round playoff bye.
Separately, Szymborski calculated the 10th, 20th, 30th, etc. percentile win total outcomes for each of the division winners and Wild Card slots. Putting that another way, in a 50th percentile (median) season with all these rosters and schedules, it projects to take about 93 wins to win the NL Central, and about 87 wins to get into the playoffs in the final NL Wild Card slot. (The 10th percentile outcome, if you were curious, is just 85 wins. So there’s your mental bare minimum win total to have a shot at winning the NL Central if every team actually kinda stinks.)
Why don’t those match, for example, the Cubs’ division-leading win total up there in the Central? Because you have to remember, those are the median projections for each invididual team – but we KNOW that outcomes in the aggregate wind up way outside those median figures. So the chances are, at least one NL Central team is going to finish with its 70th percentile or 80th percentile (or whatever) win total. The odds are best that the team is the Cubs, but it’s not guaranteed to be the Cubs.
This is all to say: on paper, the Cubs are looking like the best team in the NL Central today. But only barely. And they’ll probably have to outperform their median expectation to actually take the NL Central.
Hence then, the article about how about some very early zips standings projections for 2026 was published today ( ) and is available on Bleacher Nation ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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