Manchester City cut Arsenal’s lead at the top of the Premier League to four points last week , but can they keep the pressure on? We look ahead to Sunday’s late kick-off with our Tottenham vs Man City prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs Man City: The Key Stats
Manchester City are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites for victory against Tottenham, holding a 46.9% win probability. Pep Guardiola has lost more league games against Spurs than any other opponent in his managerial career (eight). However, Thomas Frank’s record of 0.82 points per home Premier League game is the worst of any Tottenham boss in the competition’s history.On Sunday, supporters of Arsenal will be in the unenviable position of hoping their arch-rivals can do them a major favour in the Premier League title race, as title-challenging Manchester City travel to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
And the potentially good news for all of north London is that Pep Guardiola has lost more league games against Spurs than he has versus any other club in his managerial career, losing to them on eight occasions in charge of Man City, including in the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium back in August.
City defeated Wolves 2-0 in their most recent Premier League match last Saturday, and with Arsenal subsequently losing at home to Manchester United, they enter Matchday 24 just four points off the summit and with renewed belief that they can pip the Gunners again.
City were not entirely convincing against Wolves, with both teams attempting 11 shots in that match. That was the seventh time this season City either had fewer or as many attempts as their opponents in a Premier League game, the joint-most in a season under Guardiola. They are only averaging 4.7 more shots per game than their opponents this season, their smallest difference in a campaign during his reign.
And heading into the weekend, the Opta supercomputer still rates Arsenal’s chances of securing the title at 81.5%, with Aston Villa (9.2%) also deemed more likely to top the pile than City (9.1%).
But City should enter Sunday’s game in high spirits, having clinched a top-eight finish in the league phase of the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, defeating Galatasaray 2-0.
Erling Haaland and Rayan Cherki were on target against the Turkish giants, with the Norwegian ending a run of nine games without an open-play goal across all competitions.
City have also seen January additions Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi make immediate impacts, with the former having scored five goals in his last eight Premier League appearances for both Bournemouth and City – the joint-most of any player in the competition since 15 December.
One of those Semenyo goals was a 95th-minute winner against Spurs on his final appearance for Bournemouth. He could become only the third different player to score against Tottenham for two teams in a single Premier League season, after Eric Cantona in 1992-93 (Leeds United and Man Utd) and Benito Carbone in 1999-00 (Sheffield Wednesday and Aston Villa).
Omar Marmoush joined Semenyo on the scoresheet against Wolves last weekend, netting his first Premier League goal of the campaign. However, all eight of his goals in the competition have been scored at home – the Egyptian has failed to score with all 20 of his attempts in 12 away games in the competition.
And City have struggled on their travels lately, dropping points on the road at Sunderland and Manchester United since the turn of the year. Across the last two seasons, Man City rank sixth for points won away from home in the Premier League (46 in 30 games –1.53 per game). In the two seasons beforehand (2022-23 and 2023-24), City won the joint-most away points (81 in 38 games – 2.13 per game).
It has been an entirely different story for Spurs, at least on the domestic front. They also secured a top-eight spot in the Champions League on Wednesday after a 2-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt, but things have not been going as well in the Premier League.
Teams managed by Thomas Frank have won just four of their last 22 home Premier League matches, with the Dane posting an identical record (two wins, three draws, six defeats) across his last 11 games with Brentford as in his first 11 with Spurs.
Frank has earned 0.82 points per home Premier League game in charge of Tottenham, the worst such record of any Spurs boss in the competition’s history.
But Spurs’ malaise goes back further than Frank’s arrival, as in the last two seasons, the only ever-present sides to pick up fewer Premier League points than their 66 are Wolves (50) and West Ham (63).
Tottenham’s 31 defeats in that time are second only to Wolves’ 37 – another defeat would mean they have lost 10 or more games for eight consecutive seasons since 2018-19. In their eight seasons beforehand (2010-11 – 2017-18), this only happened twice.
Spurs have tended to up their level away from home, though last week’s 2-2 draw at Burnley led to renewed speculation regarding Frank’s future. Tottenham are winless in their last five Premier League matches (D3 L2), with this their fourth run of five or more winless games in the last two seasons. They only endured four such runs throughout their previous 12 campaigns combined, from 2012-13 to 2023-24.
As for team news, Spurs continue to be without James Maddison, Rodrigo Bentancur, Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Ben Davies, Lucas Bergvall, Richarlison and Pedro Porro, but Frank is hopeful that Micky van de Ven will be fit for Sunday after he missed the midweek win in Frankfurt with a “minor thing”.
City have plenty of absentees as well, with Josko Gvardiol, Rúben Dias, John Stones, Mateo Kovacic and Savinho all out, while Jérémy Doku will also miss Sunday’s game after being forced off with a calf injury in midweek.
Tottenham vs Man City Head-to-Head
Man City initially struggled at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after the venue opened in 2019, losing on each of their first three trips there in the Champions League and Premier League. They have since suffered another three defeats there, two in the Premier League and one in the League Cup.
However, City have won on their last two league trips to Spurs, last winning three away games in a row against them between February 1973 and August 1974.
But Frank’s side did upset the odds at the Etihad Stadium in August’s return fixture, with Brennan Johnson and João Palhinha on target late in the first half. Tottenham could now complete their 10th Premier League double over City, with only Chelsea having achieved the feat against the Citizens 10 times.
Spurs’ nine Premier League doubles against City are already their most against any opponent in the competition’s history.
Tottenham vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is siding with Man City ahead of this game, with their chances of victory rated at 46.9%.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Spurs were victorious in 28.7%, with the remaining 24.4% of scenarios seeing the points shared.
While City are the supercomputer’s third favourites for the title and are assigned a 39.5% chance of finishing third, Spurs’ most common position in our season simulations is 15th (13.6%).
Tottenham vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Tottenham: Guglielmo Vicario, Djed Spence, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Destiny Udogie, João Palhinha, Archie Gray, Conor Gallagher, Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert, Dominic Solanke.
Head coach: Thomas Frank.
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Marc Guéhi, Nico O’Reilly, Nico González, Tijjani Reijnders, Bernardo Silva, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland.
Head coach: Pep Guardiola.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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