The Traitors is all about trust. If last weekend’s climax told us anything, it’s that trusting wisely leads a player to riches and widespread acclaim. Pick poorly, and you’re banished from the players’ table. Western countries, caught in a similar contest, now face their own endgame.
In the latest round of what we’ll call The Traitors: International Edition, Western countries survived the latest roundtable, at which Greenland was under threat from Donald Trump’s White House. You can almost hear the sighs of relief.
But Western leaders know many rounds still remain. Relief will soon give way to steeling themselves for what comes next. Something important has changed: decades of reliance on the most powerful figure at the table – the US, long seen as a faithful guarantor of safety – have been tested and found wanting.
Individually, Trump’s attacks against allies – threats of tariffs, insulting British troops, downplaying Nato, a photo op with Putin in Alaska last August, sanctioning the International Criminal Court, a public feud with Canada, or setting up a US-led “Board of Peace” – might have been survivable.
Taken together, they have a cumulative effect. The columnist, Matthew Parris, once compared political goodwill to a marshy bog: issue after issue sinks beneath the surface, unseen, until, without warning, the bog is full. Greenland wasn’t the first challenge to allied expectations, but it was the first that refused to sink.
Trump’s playbook – outlined decades ago in The Art of the Deal – delivers rapid wins. Opponents often feel lucky to settle for more than they’d ever been willing to give away. Unpredictability and shock produce immediate results, raising the credibility of outcomes previously seen as unthinkable. By his own criteria, the method works.
But these short-term gains come at a cost. Each surprise move erodes trust, the glue which holds alliances together. Greenland wasn’t just a shock – it exposed a pattern that had been quietly wearing down decades of goodwill. Trust is a finite commodity, built over decades but liable to collapse in months – and quick wins draw it down fast.
Suddenly, a refusal to publicly bury issues was visible in capitals from Paris to Ottawa. In London, a previously diplomatic Keir Starmer condemned Trump’s claim that Nato (and by implication British) soldiers stayed off the front lines in Afghanistan, calling it “insulting and frankly appalling”. On Greenland, he called him “completely wrong”.
In Paris, Macron made clear Europe would “not give in to bullies” or “passively accept the law of the strongest”, saying “we prefer respect… and the rule of law”. The EU continues to develop its “trade bazooka”, a powerful tool of tariffs and market restrictions across the world’s second-largest collective economy. Behind closed doors, officials privately question whether the US remains a reliable guarantor of collective defence. European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, noted “when friends shake hands, it must mean something”.
America’s rivals seemed delighted. Russia’s Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the official government newspaper, celebrated Trump’s Greenland pursuit, suggesting Europe was blocking him from striking the “greatest deal of his life”. Chinese state media urged Europe to “reduce its reliance on the US” and “diversify partnerships… avoiding the diktats of a bully”.
These diplomatic shifts have real-world consequences. Alliances built solely on leverage are not alliances at all. Treating international relations as a ledger of wins and losses may produce short-term boosts, but it undermines the very coalitions required to defend collective interests. This is the defining feature of populism: cashing in long-term value for immediate gains.
World leaders are now recalibrating. No one is more clear-eyed than America’s closest neighbour, led by former UK Bank of England governor, Mark Carney. At Davos, he gave voice to what many have been thinking but not yet said openly: countries like Canada had to step up. In a new world of Great Power politics, “middle powers must act together… because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu”.
When we look back, this is likely to be seen as the moment the thought crystallised, a cohesion forming among the allies – the start of organised resistance. “The old order is not coming back,” Carney said. “We shouldn’t mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy.”
Nato members are building independent military capabilities, including joint UK-France nuclear co-operation and faster-deploying rapid-response forces. The UK is pursuing trade and security partnerships beyond America; Canada and European countries are diversifying trade, striking deals with Asia and the Pacific to reduce reliance on the US. Most recently, Europeans have quietly sidestepped Washington’s “Board of Peace” initiative in the Middle East.
Co-operation continues where it makes sense. Nato forces train together and prepare for joint operations. US and UK forces work to take out Russian tankers from the shadow fleet. Trade with the US goes on. But it’s done on the basis of aligned interests in the moment, not long-term trust – with allies ready to pivot at a moment’s notice.
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The same dynamic is playing out domestically in the United States. Trump’s transactional approach – aggressive immigration enforcement, economically damaging tariffs, involvement in foreign conflicts he once promised to avoid – is straining trust with both voters and political allies.
High-profile internal rifts, from disagreements with figures like former Maga cheerleader Marjorie Taylor Greene to unease among Republican senators, show that the very unpredictability and shock tactics that have delivered Trump short-term wins are eroding support and public trust. That leaves him politically vulnerable.
As a result, Republicans risk losing control of Congress in November 2026, with polling pointing to Republican losses. Trump himself has warned failure could expose him to impeachment again – a reminder that short-term plays undermine stability even within his own party.
So back to The Traitors. As Trump is finding out, transactions can get you through a single round. But trust wins you the game. In an era returning to Great Power politics, the UK and European allies are now re-evaluating who they want to take to the endgame.
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