It’s 2026, and all of us are living in Mafialand. Donald Trump is The Godfather’s Don Corleone. He does what he wants. And he expects absolute loyalty.
In Davos, he announced a new “Board of Peace” for Gaza, his very own UN, which Britain and most European leaders have thankfully stayed out of. But for how long? The morally flexible Tony Blair is in there, together with other rich and powerful henchmen, ready to do Trump’s bidding.
Among them are Belarus’s autocratic leader, Aleksandr Lukashenko and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, still subject to an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. And there are the filthy rich, despotic rulers of Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Mean, forceful leaders are keen to be liked by Trump.
The latest plan for Gaza is essentially about economic colonialism and profits. The peace deal never held. Israel violates that agreement regularly; Palestinians are not free or safe in Gaza or the West Bank. Trump’s illegal abduction of Nicolás Maduro, the former president of Venezuela, a sovereign nation, is accepted as inevitable or even necessary. He will go on rampaging.
The British political analyst Philippe Legrain has exposed Trump’s bad-faith politicking in Europe. “Like a mafia boss, he views Nato as a protection racket and Europeans as vassals to be extorted,” Legrain has written. “Whenever he wants, he could revive his Greenland threats… Europe must therefore reduce its dependence on Trump as quickly as possible.”
Unlikely, given the EU’s surrender to and flattery of the capo dei capi: in Mafioso lingo, the boss of bosses. Corleone destroyed friends and close allies as well as foes. Trump does that habitually. The relatively stable post-war international order is breathing its last.
In Davos, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke resonantly about this historic moment. Former prime minister Gordon Brown, too, has warned about Trump-instigated global anarchy. “The real question now is whether the 2020s will be defined by the complete collapse of the [liberal, rules-based] order’s already crumbling pillars and the atrocities accompanying that destruction, or whether an international coalition of the willing can come together to build a new global framework in its place.”
In our age of political pusillanimity, these two men stand out. They speak with passion and conviction. We need to hear more such voices. However, none of this will mean much unless at this moment of reckoning Western nations, including Israel, plus UN Security Council members Russia and China, are called out for ignoring the laws and undercutting the institutions Brown extols.
They have flouted UN resolutions and treaties and questioned the legitimacy of the International Court of Justice. The new world order has got to be more just and equal than the dying old order. That begins with having the bravery and moral clarity to refuse to meekly accept that realpolitik demands our Governments let certain things slide.
Carney has recognised that the old way of doing things – politely ignoring when laws and codes were violated just because they happened to have been violated by the most powerful nations – has to end. “We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false; that the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient, that trade rules were enforced asymmetrically,” he said. “And we knew that international law applied with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.”
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America held the keys, and the West went along with the fiction that the way the world worked was fair because it was convenient and stable. “This bargain no longer works,” Carney went on. “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.”
So what comes after disruption and rupture? Will global business predators be better regulated? Will the hegemonic tech bros step back from world domination? I don’t think so. But just maybe, when Corleone and his gang pass on, fear will ebb and it will be possible to reimagine a more orderly, just world.
That means the end of the American Century – something long overdue. And it places a duty on economically powerful nations – including Japan, China and India – to replace the idea of national dominance with cooperation and collaboration.
The EU is the most striking example of that. Germany, France, Italy and other founding nations have some clout, but it is the collective of 27 nations, large, medium and small, that has made the union the second largest economy in the world. The EU needs to defend liberal democracy with more courage as the far-right wins national elections. But it could be the model with which to create a brighter future for all.
What that regeneration would look like, and who will lead it, is another question. But if good people could do that after the cataclysmic world wars, the post-mafia generation surely can and will.
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