We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League contest with our Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. Following five wins from seven, can Newcastle continue their revival?
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: The Key Stats
While they trail Sunday’s visitors by 10 points in the Premier League table, Newcastle are still favourites, with Opta’s supercomputer giving the hosts a 40.8% chance of success. The Magpies have lost none of the last 17 league meetings between these two on Tyneside, but Villa took four points from their two encounters last term. Eddie Howe’s side are unbeaten in eight top-flight home fixtures (W6 D2) and have started 2026 with consecutive wins at St. James’ Park.Both buoyed by a midweek win in Europe, Newcastle United and Aston Villa will reprise a growing rivalry on Sunday between two clubs intent on uprooting the Premier League’s established order.
Once again, both are seeking a top-five finish, with Villa holding the upper hand in another desperate race for UEFA Champions League qualification.
Newcastle gave themselves a chance of automatically qualifying for this season’s last 16 by strolling past PSV on Wednesday, when goals from Yoane Wissa, Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes took them into the top eight with one game remaining.
Nothing has been guaranteed just yet, though, as the Magpies must head into next week’s final matchday as one of eight teams locked on 13 points in the Champions League. Another are reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain, who will host Newcastle for their league-phase finale.
Back on the domestic scene, Howe’s side occupy eighth place in England’s top flight, sitting two points behind fifth spot following a 0-0 draw with Wolverhampton Wanderers last weekend.
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2 days ago David SegarThough that may be considered a couple of points dropped, Newcastle are now enjoying their best run of an inconsistent campaign. They’ve started 2026 with consecutive Premier League victories at St. James’ Park – beating Crystal Palace and Leeds United – and the last time they won their first three home fixtures of a calendar year was back in 2012, the third of which was against Aston Villa.
Ahead of Sunday’s clash – and an FA Cup fourth-round tie later this month – Newcastle are unbeaten in 17 top-flight home games versus the Villans (W11 D6), winning the last four by an aggregate score of 13-1.
Also hunting Champions League qualification, Villa are well set for a return to Europe’s top table, while they could yet take an alternative route into UEFA’s premier competition if required.
After an entertaining 1-0 away win over Fenerbahce on Thursday, Unai Emery’s men have already booked a place in the Europa League last 16, firming up their status as favourites to win the whole thing, which would come with a Champions League spot.
Emery was delighted with the response in Istanbul following last week’s Premier League home loss against Everton, which ended an 11-match winning streak at Villa Park.
Although the manner of that defeat was disappointing, Villa still sit third in the table, behind Manchester City in second on goal difference, and leading fifth-placed Manchester United by eight points.
The next challenge is to end their long wait for a league win on Tyneside.
Only title favourites Arsenal (21) have accrued more Premier League away points this season than Villa (18) – despite them having a negative goal difference on the road (15 scored, 16 conceded). An average of 1.64 points per away game is Villa’s best in any campaign since 2009-10 (1.68).
However, having scored in 10 consecutive league games between matchdays 11 and 20, registering the joint-most goals (24) and boasting the best conversion rate (18.9%) during that spell, Villa have now failed to score in their last two, attempting 33 shots without success against Crystal Palace and Everton.
Meanwhile, Newcastle have found the net at least twice in each of their last eight top-flight home games; on Sunday, they can achieve that feat on nine consecutive occasions for the first time since 1932.
With another win this weekend, Howe would also move onto 136 Premier League victories, putting him joint-third with Roy Hodgson in terms of English managers: only Harry Redknapp (236) and Sam Allardyce (178) have more.
He’ll likely be without his inspirational skipper, though, as Bruno Guimarães limped out of Wednesday’s game. Newcastle’s captain is also their top scorer in the Premier League, and has been directly involved in nine league goals at St. James’ Park (seven goals, two assists).
So, others may have to pick up the slack. Nick Woltemade has scored seven times since moving to England, while Wissa notched his first Champions League goal in midweek before setting up the second for Gordon.
Gordon equalled Alan Shearer’s club record in that competition (six), but he has scored just twice in 17 league appearances this term, both times from the penalty spot.
6 – Anthony Gordon has scored six goals in the UEFA Champions League this season; the joint-most by a Newcastle player in a single edition, equalling Alan Shearer's six in 2002-03. Company. pic.twitter.com/G1xpL7YPbL
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 21, 2026By contrast, his England colleague Morgan Rogers has racked up 14 goal involvements across all competitions for Aston Villa, including back-to-back Premier League braces just before Christmas.
Since then, though, he’s had the most shots without scoring of any player (15) and was guilty of some scattergun shooting against Everton.
While their hosts will be missing several defenders in addition to Guimarães, Villa must travel north without their own influential skipper.
Alongside midfield fulcrum Boubacar Kamara, long-serving captain John McGinn is ruled out by injury, while first-choice goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez remains a doubt.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
Newcastle have won 11 of their last 17 home league games against Aston Villa (D6), winning the last four by an aggregate margin of 12 goals.
When the sides last met, they played out a 0-0 draw at Villa Park in August, which followed Villa’s 4-1 victory there towards the end of last season.
So, while Newcastle had claimed maximum points and scored 11 times across the three previous meetings, Villa have taken four points from the last two.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction
Newcastle are favourites to continue their longstanding dominance over Aston Villa at St. James’ Park, according to the Opta supercomputer. They won 40.8% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Despite their superiority in the Premier League standings, Villa only prevailed in 32.5% of them, while there is a 26.7% chance of the points being shared.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups
Newcastle: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall, Sandro Tonali, Joe Willock, Joelinton, Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Aston Villa: Marco Bizot, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Pau Torres, Ian Maatsen, Lamare Bogarde, Amadou Onana, Evan Guessand, Morgan Rogers, Emiliano Buendía, Ollie Watkins.
Head coach: Unai Emery
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Will Magpies Extend St James’ Supremacy Against Villa? Opta Analyst.
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