The Phillies formally announced their re-signing of catcher J.T. Realmuto this morning. Realmuto, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Rob Thomson were all on hand for a media session conducted over Zoom shortly thereafter. Dombrowski, fielding questions regarding the reported pursuit of Bo Bichette and the late pivot back to Realmuto, candidly acknowledged that his club did indeed feel it was close to closing a deal with Bichette before the Mets jumped in following Kyle Tucker’s deal with the Dodgers.
“I can’t say that we ever thought it was done,” Dombrowski said when asked if he’d felt they had an agreement in place with Bichette. “We thought we were very close to having a deal done. We thought it was going to happen, but it wasn’t done. … Until you sign a memo of understanding, you don’t have a deal done — and we did not sign one of those. It wasn’t that we weren’t moving toward that direction. It isn’t that we didn’t think we were going to get there. But we just did not get to that point.”
The Bichette talks were serious enough that Dombrowski acknowledged informing Realmuto’s camp that they were likely to go in another direction and wouldn’t be able to make both signings happen at this time. When they got word of Bichette’s deal with the Mets, Dombrowski said he was back on the phone with Realmuto and his agent within an hour or so — his only interim call going to owner John Middleton, to keep him apprised of the situation. The veteran baseball operations executive conceded that it’s a “gut punch” anytime free agent or trade negotiations get to that stage and don’t culminate in a deal before adding, “you can’t just wallow in what took place” and that he had to simply “shake it off” and continue trying to improve his club. Notably, he added that the Phils were never interested in a short-term, opt-out-laden contract with Bichette.
Given that the Phillies were willing to offer a reported $190-200MM to Bichette over a seven-year term, it’s fair to wonder whether there might be some forthcoming additions. Realmuto, after all, commanded less than 25% of that sum in total. Dombrowski, however, at least strongly implied that his club is done with significant spending this winter. Asked about the lingering availability of impact names like Framber Valdez and Cody Bellinger, Dombrowski declined to get into specifics regarding any particular free agent but demurred to say:
“I really can’t speak to that, by the baseball rules — because they’re free agents — but I’d just say I think we’re content where we are at this point.”
With Realmuto back in the fold, the Phillies’ current payroll (as projected by RosterResource) sits just over $281MM. They’re at more than $317MM worth of luxury obligations, meaning they’d pay a 110% tax on any subsequent additions to the roster. Based on the Bichette pursuit, it seems Middleton was willing to extend further beyond the current price of the roster, but not that the Phillies have the proverbial money burning a hole in their pockets.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t room for some smaller-scale additions. Dombrowski alluded to the potential of bringing in some depth options for the rotation. He also candidly confirmed on the record that the team plans to move on from Nick Castellanos in some capacity. Castellanos is owed $20MM this season — the last of a five-year, $100MM contract signed in the 2021-22 offseason. Asked point-blank if he still “expect[s] to make a change of scenery [for Castellanos] before spring training opens,” Dombrowski replied: “Yes, we do. We still plan on doing that.”
A change of scenery has been presumed for months now. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported early in the winter that the Phils were likely to either trade or release Castellanos. The latter has seemed likelier all along, if only because finding a taker for even part of Castellanos’ salary is a tall order. The 33-year-old (34 in March) hit .250/.294/.400 with 17 home runs last season — about 10% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. That lack of offensive help was coupled with more bottom-of-the-scale defense in the outfield, the second-worst walk rate and average exit velocity of his career, and the lowest hard-hit rate he’s ever posted.
It’s feasible that as spring draws nearer, the Phillies might find a buy-low taker willing to pay a few million of the deal. Even getting someone to take on $2MM of that remaining $20MM would actually trim $4.2MM off the Phillies’ 2026 budget, given the previously mentioned 110% tax they’re paying on every dollar over the top luxury threshold. Clubs like the Pirates, Reds and Royals have been looking for more bats all offseason and could theoretically roll the dice on a hopeful rebound. Other clubs could come calling if they incur some injuries in spring training. For now, Castellanos remains on the roster.
One other item of note from today’s media session included a brief update on injured ace Zack Wheeler. The 35-year-old righty underwent thoracic outlet surgery in late September, and a timeline on his return has been murky. That’s generally still true, but both Dombrowski and Thomson noted that Wheeler has been throwing from flat ground and is up to a distance of 90 feet. Thomson added that Wheeler had a “heavy” workload last week and is expected to be at the team’s spring complex for more throwing on Thursday.
“No timetable, but so far the reports have been good,” Thomson said of his veteran righty.
Wheeler was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome late in the season. It’s an ominous injury but the less severe form of TOS (as opposed to neurogenic TOS). Venous TOS comes with blood clots that can be life threatening but, as D-backs righty Merrill Kelly explained to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post several years ago, a “more straightforward” diagnosis and recovery. (Kelly pitched nearly a full season in 2021, the year after his venous TOS procedure, and has since done the best work of his career over the past four seasons.)
The original timetable for Wheeler was six to eight months, though every rehab process is unique and contingent upon the individual pitcher’s body. It’s encouraging that Wheeler appears to be on track, but the fact that he’s not yet working off a mound with only three weeks until pitchers and catchers report doesn’t bode well for hitting the shorter end of that window. A six-month return would’ve put Wheeler in games by late March, just prior to Opening Day. Eight months would set him back until around Memorial Day weekend. The Phillies will surely have plenty of updates as spring training progresses.
In Wheeler’s absence, the Philadelphia rotation will include Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker. Longtime top prospect Andrew Painter if the current favorite for the fifth spot, but he has yet to make a major league debut and struggled in Triple-A last year during his return season from Tommy John surgery. Righties Yoniel Curet, Alan Rangel and Jean Cabrera are all on the 40-man roster, but none of that trio has a major league start under his belt. Adding at least one veteran swingman or starter, if not two, seems like a prudent course of action — even if it’s only on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.
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