The Syrian pound has strengthened against foreign currencies since the morning of Sunday, 18 January, coinciding with the Syrian army regaining control of the most important oil and gas fields in eastern Syria.
The exchange rate reached 11,000 Syrian pounds to the US dollar, according to the “Lira Today” website, after it had fluctuated for weeks between 12,000 and 12,800 following the currency replacement process.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Syria maintained the official exchange rate at 11,000 pounds per dollar, as per its bulletin issued Monday, 19 January.
According to Enab Baladi’s tour of Damascus markets, the appreciation has been reflected only in the prices of some consumer goods, while other products have largely maintained their previous prices. Traders attributed this to the fact that they purchased their goods when the dollar was at a certain rate. They also said the rapid fluctuations in the exchange rate prevent them from constantly adjusting prices, as continuous changes, in their words, could undermine consumer trust.
Some shops have started displaying prices in US dollars, a practice traders say adds flexibility and stability. Consumers, they added, can buy dollars from any exchange company at the exchange rate and pay for purchases at the fixed dollar price.
Rise linked to the market
Economist Majdi al-Jamous linked the pound’s rise to the political and military developments unfolding in Syria, particularly the “general euphoria” that accompanied what he described as political and military “victories,” including the sidelining of some sensitive files.
This atmosphere, al-Jamous said, prompted some citizens to connect these developments to a potential improvement in economic conditions, and therefore to the pound’s exchange rate. He noted that this improvement does not reflect a real economic reality, but rather comes in the context of clear speculation, as speculators exploit public optimism and the “euphoria of victory,” misleading people into believing these developments will quickly translate into economic gains.
He stressed that any real economic impact, even if theoretically possible, would require a considerable amount of time and cannot happen immediately. He warned that what is happening now is an organized process aimed at temporarily improving the pound’s value against the dollar, pushing citizens to give up their foreign currency savings before the dollar rises again, especially during periods of currency replacement. In his view, this game benefits speculators only, while causing losses for small traders and ordinary citizens.
On whether the effect will last, al-Jamous emphasized that what is happening is primarily driven by a psychological factor and carries no tangible impact in the near term. He explained that economic benefit from resources, such as oil fields or border crossings, requires a long time, along with infrastructure capable of absorbing such investments.
He pointed out that the current infrastructure is extremely deteriorated, to the extent that any potential revenues would not even be enough to rehabilitate it, let alone deliver genuine economic recovery.
A temporary improvement
Al-Jamous believes that even if the pound’s improvement is real, it will not go beyond adapting to the high inflation rate while commodity prices remain at their current levels. He argued that political and military gains, and the popular optimism surrounding them, are being exploited to push people to “flee” toward holding Syrian pounds, before the equation flips within a few days and the dollar rises again, generating profits for speculators at the expense of citizens.
As for how these developments could be turned into real economic benefit, the economist said this would first require political stability, followed by security and military stability. That could open the door to understandings and agreements with foreign companies, including American firms, to invest in available oil and gas resources. He noted that these fields are in urgent need of rehabilitation, repair, and restructuring before they can return to operation and production, and reaching the export stage would require additional time.
He added that signing direct contracts with foreign companies to reinvest in natural resources, alongside securing control over some border crossings, could yield a limited but acceptable impact, or form the start of a gradual economic recovery. However, he estimated that such recovery would take a long time in the absence of a clear economic model and a defined economic plan, and even in the absence of a stable political model that can be built upon.
Al-Jamous concluded that any real economic recovery would first require building external relations, obtaining international recognition, lifting sanctions, and receiving foreign assistance and aid. Only then, he said, can Syria talk about establishing an economic model and a clear plan and implementing it in practice, allowing for a genuine, sustainable improvement that would be reflected in the value of the Syrian pound.
As for the current improvement in the exchange rate, he said it is far removed from economic reality and cannot be achieved except over the long term, given the urgent need for external monetary support that boosts the central bank’s reserves and helps strengthen the pound.
“Government” regains oil fields
The Syrian army regained control of the most important oil and gas fields in eastern Syria over the past two days, after years under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The fields included in the operation represent pillars of Syria’s economy and its energy strategy, placing the state back on the map of national production.
Enab Baladi’s correspondent in Deir Ezzor (eastern Syria) confirmed that the Syrian army regained control of the most prominent oil and gas fields east of the Euphrates River on Sunday, 18 January, after SDF forces withdrew from the area.
The fields restored to state control include:
al-Omar field, the largest oil field in Syria and the backbone of oil production east of the Euphrates Conoco field, the most important natural gas field supplying power stations as well as industrial and household use al-Tanak and al-Izba fields, which support national oil output within the network of major fieldsThe Syrian Petroleum Company also announced it had taken over the Rasafa and Sufyan fields, and the strategic al-Thawra oil complex in the southwestern countryside of Raqqa (northern Syria). It said it had launched an emergency operations room to ensure continued production and protect infrastructure.
The company explained that the al-Thawra oil complex serves as an administrative and logistical hub linking several fields, most notably Wadi Ubayd, al-Bishri, and Sufyan. Extracted oil is transferred to the al-Akirshi station for initial separation processes before distribution or further processing.
Central Bank of Syria Governor Abdulkader Husrieh said the return of oil and gas resources to the state represents a pivotal moment in rebuilding financial and monetary sovereignty. He explained that the bank will regain its role as the government’s “financial agent” to manage credits and financing through official channels.
He added that the step will contribute to:
Financing import needs in an organized manner and unifying payment channels Restoring tools for managing monetary policy and foreign exchange Enhancing transparency with correspondent banks and adhering to anti-money laundering and counter terrorism financing standards, helping rebuild external confidence in Syria’s banking sectorHe noted that the state’s recovery of its resources is an opportunity for an organized and sustainable recovery of the Syrian economy.
Syrian pound strengthens after army retakes key oil and gas fields in eastern Syria Enab Baladi.
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