We look ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with our Tottenham vs Borussia Dortmund prediction and preview. Both teams have a great chance of a top-eight finish.
Tottenham vs Borussia Dortmund: The Key Stats
Tottenham are narrow favourites with the Opta supercomputer as they have a 39.2% chance of victory against Borussia Dortmund. Spurs have won their last four meetings with BVB, all of which were in the UEFA Champions League. Tottenham’s most frequent source of goals in the Champions League this season has been own goals by the opposition (three).Tottenham vs Borussia Dortmund is a contender for the most important game on Matchday 7 of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League, and that’s not just because Thomas Frank desperately needs a win.
The teams start the matchday 11th and 10th respectively in the league table. They have identical results and goal differences, with Dortmund ahead thanks purely to having scored six more goals. As eighth-placed Atlético Madrid are only one point ahead, and with an inferior goal difference, an automatic qualification spot remains very much up for grabs for Spurs and BVB.
Tottenham head to Eintracht Frankfurt for their final match while Dortmund host Inter. Given the current positions of those opponents (30th and sixth respectively), this match is probably bigger for the visitors when only taking UCL progress into account.
Dortmund are in better form too, as they are unbeaten in seven in all competitions. Tottenham are winless in five and have lost their last three, including Saturday’s London derby loss to West Ham United at home, so it’s obvious why Frank is under such pressure.
The Dane’s cause is not helped by Tottenham’s lengthy injury list. You could imagine Rodrigo Bentancur, Mohammed Kudus, Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison, João Palhinha and Richarlison all starting this match, yet none of them are available.
Dortmund’s absentee list is not so ominous. Aaron Anselmino, Patrick Drewes, Salih Özcan and Marcel Sabitzer are unlikely to be involved. Ramy Bensebaini may return for the first time since his participation in the Africa Cup of Nations ended. Either way, manager Niko Kovač should be able to call upon three key men.
The first important player is Nico Schlotterbeck, who has made more line-breaking passes (85) than any other defender in the 2025-26 Champions League. He also leads all defenders in the same metric in the competition since the start of last season (286).
If he can help Dortmund get up field, Tottenham will need to be wary of the long-range threat of Felix Nmecha. He has scored with three of his five shots from outside the box in the Champions League this season (60%). This is the highest conversion rate by a player with 3+ goals from outside the box in a single edition since Oscar for Chelsea in 2012-13 (three from four, 75%).
The visitors can call upon an even more potent threat. Since the start of last season, Serhou Guirassy has been directly involved in more goals (22) than any other player in the Champions League (16 goals, six assists). His 16 goals is also the joint-most by any player in this period, along with Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé.
Nmecha and Guirassy have enabled Dortmund to have the highest shot conversion rate (24%) in the Champions League this season. They are also the team who have overperformed their xG total by the biggest margin (+6.2, thanks to 19 goals from 12.8 expected).
This could make the difference, given Tottenham’s most frequent source of goals in the competition has been opposition own goals (three) in 2025-26. Spurs have a formidable defensive record at home in the Champions League, though.
They are the only team to have won all three of their home matches without conceding in 2025-26. Tottenham have also kept a clean sheet in 54% of their Champions League games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (seven from 13). It’s the third-best rate among teams with more than 10 games at a stadium in Champions League history.
This helps explain why Spurs are unbeaten in their last 23 home European matches (including qualifiers). They have won 19 and drawn four since a 1-0 defeat to RB Leipzig in February 2020. As Dortmund have lost 10 of their 14 away Champions League matches in England, including seven of the last eight, Tottenham may get the victory Frank so urgently requires.
Tottenham vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head
This will be seventh major European match between Tottenham and Borussia Dortmund. The German side won both in the 2015-16 UEFA Europa League but Spurs have won all four in the Champions League, across the 2017-18 and 2018-19 campaigns.
Dortmund have also played more Champions League games against Spurs without winning than any other club. They’ve only lost more often against Real Madrid (eight times).
The last meeting in north London ended 3-0 to Tottenham. Goals from Son Heung-min, Jan Vertonghen and Fernando Llorente sealed a comfortable victory in what was the season Spurs reached the final.
Tottenham vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
This match could easily go either way. Tottenham are favourites with the Opta supercomputer, but their 39.2% probability of winning is hardly conclusive, especially when Borussia Dortmund’s chances are rated at 34.9%.
Only two other UEFA Champions League fixtures this week are more closely matched on the pre-game simulations.
Perhaps these teams will therefore cancel each other out. The draw is a 25.9% possibility, so not too far behind the chances either side has of victory. This should be close.
Tottenham vs Borussia Dortmund Predicted Lineups
Tottenham Hotspur: Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Kevin Danso, Djed Spence, João Palhinha, Archie Gray, Wilson Odobert, Xavi Simons, Mathys Tel, Randal Kolo Muani.
Head coach: Thomas Frank
Borussia Dortmund: Gregor Kobel, Niklas Süle, Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck, Yan Couto, Jobe Bellingham, Felix Nmecha, Julian Ryerson, Maximilian Beier, Carney Chukwuemeka, Serhou Guirassy.
Head coach: Niko Kovač
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Tottenham vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: Can Frank Find Much-Needed Win? Opta Analyst.
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