Trade war looms as EU and UK unite against Trump ...Middle East

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Sir Keir Starmer is attempting to rescue the UK-US special relationship after Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on nations which oppose him taking control of Greenland.

In a phone call with the US President last night, the Prime Minister told Trump he was “wrong” to apply tariffs on allies trying to defend the Nato alliance, and that Britain would stand firm in its position on Greenland.

Starmer will echo this message in a hastily arranged statement and press conference in Downing Street on Monday following the weekend’s transatlantic turmoil.

But he will also try to salvage his personal friendship with Trump, built over more than a year, and stress the importance of maintaining the UK-US alliance for the British national interest.

The US President’s announcement on Saturday – without prior warning to the Prime Minister or other European leaders – that he would impose tariffs on all exports to the US of 10 per cent from 1 February, rising to 25 per cent in June, triggered the worst crisis in British-American relations in decades.

Starmer was urged to cancel the King’s state visit to the US this spring, which is timed to coincide with the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said the state visit should be dropped if the tariffs go ahead. The UK must not “reward Trump’s behaviour with the pageantry he craves,” he said.

The leaders targeted by the tariff threat – the UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway and the Netherlands – issued a joint statement warning that Trump’s actions could trigger a “dangerous downward spiral” in transatlantic relations.

Starmer and Trump signed off on a UK-US trade deal at the G7 summit in Canada in June (Photo: Leon Neal/Getty)

In his statement and press conference in Downing Street, the Prime Minister will set out the UK’s approach to working with its allies, including the UK’s commitment to Nato, and how Britain will be led by its values.

He will make clear his determination to work at home and abroad to protect the security, living standards, and future of the British people.

A Downing Street spokeswoman confirmed that Starmer spoke to Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, as well as Ursula von der Leyen and Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte, before his phone call with Trump.

“In all his calls, the Prime Minister reiterated his position on Greenland. He said that security in the High North is a priority for all Nato allies in order to protect Euro-Atlantic interests,” she said.

“He also said that applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is wrong.”

How UK could follow EU’s ‘bazooka’ of retaliatory trade tariffs

Despite Starmer’s strategy of remaining close to Trump, he could align with the EU, which is set to trigger its anti-coercion trade “bazooka” of retaliatory measures for the first time.

This could see the EU-US trade deal scrapped while the US President’s threatened tariffs could trickle through to UK prices for medicines, food, drink and cars.

Trump’s move followed the arrival last week of small military contingents from several European countries to Greenland as part of a Danish-led Nato exercise aimed at reinforcing Arctic security. European governments insist the deployments are defensive and directed at growing Russian and Chinese activity in the region – not at the US.

French President Emmanuel Macron struck a defiant tone, saying Europe would not be intimidated “in Greenland, in Ukraine, or anywhere else”, and calling Trump’s tariff threat unacceptable.

He called for the EU to activate its so-called Anti-Coercion Instrument that can block US companies from the single market. The Élysée Palace said he coordinated with key EU leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, as well as Starmer.

Macron called Trump’s tariff threat unacceptable (Photo: Michel Euler/Getty)

The tool, adopted in 2023, known as a “trade bazooka”, allows the EU to respond to instances of “economic coercion” by other countries, like tariffs, with its own retaliatory measures. The Financial Times reported that the EU’s “bazooka” could be as much as $93bn (£60bn) in tariffs on the US.

There were also warnings from the European Commission and from MEPs that the US trade deal with the EU, agreed last summer, would not be approved while Trump continued to issue threats against Greenland. Implementing the US-EU trade deal would be “very complicated” in light of Trump’s threats, EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said.

While the UK has yet to clarify the implications of its own trade deal with the US, agreed last May, it is likely that Starmer would also suspend it if Trump follows through with his tariff threats.

An awkward test of Starmer’s post-Brexit strategy

For the UK, the dispute presents an awkward test of its post-Brexit strategy towards Washington. Starmer, who has sought to position Britain as a bridge between the US and Europe, condemned the tariff threat as “completely wrong” and said it would be raised directly with the White House.

The UK had hoped that a bilateral trade understanding with Washington would insulate it from Trump’s more confrontational trade policies.

However, Britain now finds itself grouped with EU states facing the same penalties – reinforcing concerns that even close alignment with the US offers no protection from sudden economic pressure.

Warnings from European leaders mark a major shift in Europe’s approach to Trump, whose return to office has been characterised by aggressive tariff threats, wavering support for Ukraine, and repeated demands that European Nato members dramatically increase defence spending.

Even Meloni, one of the European leaders with the closest ties to Trump, denounced the threat, saying, “it is a mistake, and I do not agree with it.”

Until now, most EU capitals have opted for caution, fearing that retaliation could prompt the US to scale back its military commitments to Europe. Trump’s explicit linkage of tariffs to territorial demands, however, has shaken that calculation.

“I can’t remember when it was as bad as this between Europe and America,” said one EU diplomat. “But this moment could be our breaking point, when we finally say ‘no.’”

Medicines, cars, food and drink costs could rise

David Henig, director at the UK Trade Policy Project, warned that lost trade as a result of US tariffs would have an economic impact in the UK, even if the majority of UK trade is services.

“Aviation, pharmaceuticals, cars and whisky are obvious products in the firing line from 10 per cent and particularly 25 per cent tariffs. In the past, Trump has exempted the first two for US reasons, so this may happen again. Nonetheless, there is a clear worry for the UK.”

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Marco Forgione, director general of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade, added: “The implication is that it is a cumulative tariff, so one that is on top of the existing tariffs. This means that UK products sold into the US market will be more expensive.

“UK businesses could decide to absorb some of the cost increases so their products remain competitive in the US market but much of that has happened already [due to existing tariffs].

“How quickly it impacts consumers depends on stock already in the marketplace but the impact of these sorts of announcements are pretty quick on consumers.”

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