The Big Ten is expected to claim its third consecutive national championship on Monday night, with Indiana favored to defeat Miami by more than a touchdown. The conference’s position in College Football Playoff expansion negotiations is not as advantageous.
Commissioner Tony Petitti prefers a mammoth 24-team field. The other commissioners on the CFP management committee, including the SEC’s Greg Sankey, favor expanding the event to 16. If there’s no agreement between Petitti and Sankey, the CFP will remain unchanged (12 teams) for next season.
A deadline looms.
CFP executives must notify ESPN of any plans to expand by Jan. 23. While private discussions have been unfolding for weeks, all 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director are scheduled to meet Sunday in Miami ahead of the championship game.
“It’s anyone’s guess at this point,” an industry source said.
Two options can be ruled out:
— There is no support for a 14-team field; if expansion prevails, the next iteration would feature at least 16 teams.
— The Big Ten’s proposal for a 24-team field cannot be implemented in time for the 2026 season because of the massive logistical challenges involved. Tops on that list would be the elimination of conference championship games (to make room for the additional playoff rounds) that are already under multi-year contracts with venues and TV partners.
So for next season, it’s either status quo or 16.
(The playoff format and future of conference championship games are part of the industry’s ongoing discussion about the college football calendar that includes new dates for the transfer portal and national signing day and the potential elimination of spring practice.)
As part of an agreement reached in the spring of 2024, the SEC and Big Ten have the authority to determine the CFP’s future format — they are merely obligated to seek feedback from the other conferences — which means Petitti has the authority to block the 16-team field that many across the sport prefer. He could use that leverage to secure a pledge to move to 24 in three or four years.
Politically, it’s a delicate situation for the Big Ten. Is the conference willing to accept being cast as the singular force preventing the change (to 16) so many fans and schools favor?
In other words: As the villain?
To this point, there’s little to suggest Petitti cares about optics. That head-down approach distinguishes him from Sankey, who understands the CFP is tantamount to a public trust that must be managed with care and transparency.
“Why not take the interim step before 24?” another industry source said. “What’s the downside? If you’re the Big Ten, 16 isn’t ideal, but it’s better than 12.”
This being the CFP, the most sensible option is usually the most elusive. After all, no other major sport would consider radically changing its playoff model following just two seasons of a specific format.
Then again, no other sport is as decentralized, or territorial, as college football.
Combine the Jan. 23 deadline with the belief that 12 is too small and the most likely outcome from the management committee meeting on Sunday is a two-step agreement: Expand to 16 next season with a pledge to create a 24-team field in 2028 or 2029.
That could be the only way to get Petitti’s approval and the best way for the Big Ten to avoid being seen as the bad guy.
To the picks …
Last week: 1-1 Season: 84-92-2 (47.7 percent)
Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
(All times Pacific)
No. 10 Miami (+8.5) vs. No. 1 Indiana
Kickoff: Monday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: The line has moved toward the Hoosiers, who opened as 7.5-point favorites, and we expect it to inch higher by kickoff.
Related Articles
WBB power rankings: UCLA on top, USC falls, Oregon rises Big 12 MBB power rankings: Arizona on top but schedule edge to Iowa State Arizona football: 2026 outlook is bright, but does a downturn loom? What NET rankings reveal about future Pac-12, WCC and Mountain West Oregon’s next step: After another CFP collapse, reset time for Dan Lanning(If Alabama, Ohio State or Georgia rolled into the title game with an undefeated record and dominating victories in the quarterfinals and semifinals, they would be favored by double digits. But brand bias is working against Indiana to keep the line from soaring.)
The Hurricanes are playing at home in Hard Rock Stadium but likely won’t have much advantage as Indiana fans gobble up tickets with the hope of witnessing the school’s first national championship.
If Miami coach Mario Cristobal avoids game-management mistakes that have plagued him in the past, the Hurricanes could stay within striking range throughout. They have more than enough talent on the lines of scrimmage, particularly with edge rushers Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain, to match Indiana’s physicality.
But will Miami execute at the level necessary in the crucible of the fourth quarter to beat the Hoosiers, who rarely make mistakes and usually make opponents pay for their gaffes? That seems unlikely.
We foresee a closer-than-expected showdown in which Indiana makes just enough plays down the stretch to hold off the Hurricanes and complete the most remarkable championship run in the sport’s history.
Pick vs. spread: Miami
Final score: Indiana 27, Miami 20
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Hence then, the article about college football playoff miami is the pick vs the spread as expansion debate heats up ahead of deadline was published today ( ) and is available on mercury news ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( College Football Playoff: Miami is the pick (vs. the spread) as expansion debate heats up ahead of deadline )
Also on site :