We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash at Old Trafford with our Man Utd vs Man City prediction and preview, as Michael Carrick takes charge of his first game as the Red Devils’ new caretaker boss.
Manchester United vs Manchester City: The Key Stats
Manchester City hold a 50.6% win probability according to the Opta supercomputer, leaving Manchester United a 25.9% chance of victory. This will be the first game of Michael Carrick’s second stint as United boss, following his three-game spell in November/December 2021 (W2 D1). Erling Haaland has been involved in more Premier League goals against Man Utd than any other Man City player (11 – eight goals, three assists)One highlight of Ruben Amorim’s ultimately doomed spell in charge at Manchester United came in a derby, with Amad Diallo netting a late winner in a 2-1 victory over Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in December 2024.
That triumph came a month into Amorim’s reign at Old Trafford, but the man whom United had backed as the head coach (or manager, if you ask him) to lead them into a bright new era did not last.
United sacked Amorim on 5 January, and since then have played twice under the tutelage of caretaker boss Darren Fletcher.
The former United midfielder oversaw a draw with Burnley in the Premier League and an FA Cup third-round loss to Brighton & Hove Albion. As such, this is the first season since 1981-82 that the Red Devils have been dumped out of both domestic cup competitions at the first hurdle.
But after being given the nod ahead of former United boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Michael Carrick is now in place for his second stint in charge after a three-game caretaker spell in 2021 (W2 D1).
Carrick will be at the helm for the rest of the season, and even though United do not realistically have any silverware to play for, they are right in the thick of the race for European qualification.
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And there is one good omen, at least, for United fans. As a player, Carrick only recorded more wins in the Premier League against Sunderland (16) than he did City (P24 W13 D3 L8).
Pep Guardiola’s team go into Saturday’s clash on the back of beating Newcastle United 2-0 in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final; that result followed a 10-1 hammering of Exeter City in the FA Cup.
However, City have drawn their last three Premier League matches, falling six points back from leaders Arsenal in the process. They last had a longer run of consecutive draws in 2009 (seven).
United are also on a run of three straight league draws, which is their longest such sequence since a streak of five in 1992.
This will be the first meeting between two Premier League sides both on runs of 3+ consecutive draws since February 2001. City were involved in that match, too, losing 1-0 to Tottenham.
City have given up leads in their last two top-flight matches (1-1 vs Brighton, 1-1 vs Chelsea), but it is United who have failed to close out too many games this season; only Bournemouth (16), West Ham (15) and Chelsea (15) have dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League than United (14).
After his stunning scoring exploits earlier this season, Erling Haaland has netted just once in his last six appearances across all competitions. A penalty against Brighton is his only goal involvement in that run.
By his incredible standards, Haaland is on something of a drought. But playing against United could be the perfect tonic.
Haaland has been involved in more Premier League goals against United than any other City player (11 – eight goals, three assists), having a hand in all three goals on his last appearance at Old Trafford in October 2023 (two goals, one assist in a 3-0 win).
Phil Foden, meanwhile, has been back to something close to his best this season, and he is another City star who loves playing against United.
Only against Brighton (eight) has Foden scored more Premier League goals than he has in meetings with United (seven), though just one of them has come at Old Trafford.
Haaland and Foden were City’s goalscorers in their 3-0 victory over United at the Etihad in September.
But there are two other fearsome forwards to throw into the mix for City.
Among players for teams in Europe’s top five leagues, only three have registered more goal involvements than Rayan Cherki‘s 13 (four goals, nine assists) since the start of November in all competitions: Deniz Undav (16), Kylian Mbappe (15) and Haaland (14).
Cherki scored City’s second goal in their 2-0 win at Newcastle on Tuesday after new signing Antoine Semenyo thought he had already made it 2-0 earlier on with what would have been his second of the night.
Semenyo’s clever finish from a corner was disallowed contentiously after a long VAR check, but he has nevertheless scored in both of his first two City games since his big-money move from Bournemouth.
The winger, who was a reported transfer target for United, has already netted at Old Trafford this season, scoring Bournemouth’s first goal in December’s thrilling 4-4 draw. Semenyo featured against United four times for the Cherries, scoring three goals. He will be out to continue his red-hot start in what will be his league debut for City as he looks to build on his 13 goal contributions in the competition this season (10 goals, three assists).
But United are, despite all the drama, sitting seventh in the Premier League, and a victory in this weekend’s early match would see them move into the top four ahead of the rest of the matchday 22 fixtures.
Carrick will be buoyed by the returns of Bryan Mbeumo and Amad, who have been away on international duty with Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire, respectively, at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Bruno Fernandes has returned from injury and featured against Brighton on Sunday, assisting Benjamin Sesko‘s goal.
Only Haaland (12) and Igor Thiago (11) have been involved in more Premier League goals since the start of November than Fernandes (10 – three goals, seven assists), despite the United captain recently spending time out. He also tops the charts for chances created (56) and assists (eight).
And with City suffering from a defensive injury crisis, United should fancy their chances of creating good opportunities.
After all, only City (40.2) have registered more expected goals than United’s 38.3 in the Premier League this term.
Man Utd vs Man City Head-to-Head
United have failed to score in four of their last five Premier League home games against City, including the last two.
They have not gone 3+ home league games without a goal against City since a run of four between December 1911 and September 1914.
In fact, United last failed to score in both league meetings with their neighbours in the same season back in 1973-74, a campaign in which they were relegated from the top flight.
City have won more Premier League away games against Man Utd than any other side (nine), while only Liverpool (41) have scored more goals as visitors at Old Trafford than them (37).
Man Utd vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer sees City as the favourites, as one might expect.
They came out on top in 50.6% of the 10,000 data-led simulations, with United’s chances of victory rated at 25.9%.
The likelihood of a draw is 23.5%. Only two of the last six Manchester derbies have finished all square.
Man Utd vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Leny Yoro, Lisandro Martínez, Luke Shaw, Casemiro, Manuel Ugarte, Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko.
Head coach: Michael Carrick
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Nathan Aké, Nico O’Reilly, Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Rayan Cherki, Phil Foden, Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland.
Manager: Pep Guardiola
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday at St James’ Park, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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