We look ahead to Wednesday’s League Cup semi-final first leg at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction and preview. What will happen in Liam Rosenior’s first home game as Chelsea boss?
Chelsea vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
Arsenal may be away from home in the first leg, but the Opta supercomputer gives them a win probability of 49.6%. Mikel Merino has scored in his last two games against Chelsea, both in the Premier League last year. The last Arsenal player to score in three in a row against the Blues was Ian Wright between 1992 and 1994 (4). Arsenal have been eliminated from their last four semi-final ties in all competitions, the longest run in their history.Liam Rosenior will face his first major test as Chelsea boss when the Blues entertain Arsenal in the EFL Cup semi-final first leg at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday.
Rosenior got off to a winning start at the weekend after arriving from Strasbourg, guiding his side through a 5-1 victory over Charlton Athletic in the FA Cup third round.
However, the Englishman’s first match since taking over from Enzo Maresca only had such an emphatic scoreline thanks to second-half stoppage-time goals from Pedro Neto and Enzo Fernández.
Rosenior made eight changes to the Chelsea line-up for the trip to the Valley, with Tosin Adarabioyo, Moisés Caicedo and Andrey Santos the only survivors from the disappointing 2-1 loss to Fulham in the Premier League under caretaker boss Calum McFarlane.
Wednesday’s match is more likely to see Rosenior select what he considers to be his best side given the strength of the opponent, and Alejandro Garnacho will hope he did enough against Charlton to earn a starting spot.
The Argentina international has been involved in eight goals in his last five EFL Cup appearances (5 goals, 3 assists) and scored twice from the bench in the 3-1 victory over Cardiff City in the quarter-final.
Chelsea have strong form at this stage of the EFL Cup too, having progressed from their last three semi-final ties. However, they lost in the final on each occasion, and the last team to beat them in a final-four encounter was Arsenal in 2017-18.
But the Gunners went out at this stage last season when they were comfortably dispatched 4-0 on aggregate by eventual champions Newcastle United.
Should Arsenal be eliminated by Chelsea, it will be a record 10th time they have gone out of the EFL Cup in the semi-finals – they are currently level with Tottenham on nine semi-final exits. The Gunners would also be the first team to go out at this stage in successive seasons since Manchester United in 2019-20 and 2020-21.
Like Chelsea, Arsenal enjoyed a straightforward FA Cup victory on Sunday, triumphing 4-1 at Portsmouth despite falling behind inside three minutes.
Gabriel Martinelli came in as one of 10 changes made by Mikel Arteta and bagged a hat-trick following the criticism he faced for pushing an injured Conor Bradley in the goalless draw with Liverpool last week.
The Premier League leaders were also boosted by the return of Kai Havertz after five months out, and he will be hopeful of adding to the 20 minutes he got off the bench at Fratton Park.
Defensive duo Riccardo Calafiori and Piero Hincapié are unlikely to be fit enough to feature. The Italian has been out with a reported muscular injury since last month, while Hincapié sustained a groin problem against Liverpool.
Chelsea will be without Caicedo, who is suspended after getting his second yellow card in the competition against Cardiff. Marc Cucurella is back from his ban but Cole Palmer, Reece James and Malo Gusto are potential doubts after being rested at the weekend.
Chelsea vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
This is the third time Chelsea and Arsenal have met in the EFL Cup semi-finals – the fourth fixture to have been played that many times at this stage of the competition. Arsenal vs Tottenham, Chelsea vs Tottenham, and Manchester City vs Manchester United have been played four times.
Chelsea overturned a 2-1 first-leg deficit against the Gunners to reach the final, which they won, in 1997-98 with a 4-3 aggregate success. Arsenal reached Wembley in 2017-18 with a 2-1 second-leg win, only to be defeated by Man City in the showpiece.
In total, the teams have met six times in the EFL Cup. Chelsea have won/progressed from four of their six ties with Arsenal, with the exceptions being their first (1976-77 fourth round) and most recent (2017-18 semi-final) meetings.
They have already met in the Premier League this season, which ended in a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge in November. Caicedo was sent off in the first half but Chelsea still took the lead through Trevoh Chalobah early in the second half. Mikel Merino equalised for Arsenal soon after.
Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal have been the best team in the country this season – they have only lost twice in all competitions – and that is shown in the Opta supercomputer’s projections. The visitors are favourites to win the first leg, coming out on top in almost half of the simulations (49.6%).
Chelsea have a 26.7% probability of seizing the upper hand in the tie, which is narrowly higher than the likelihood of a draw (23.7%).
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic men’s and women’s football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction: Can Rosenior Outwit Arteta in EFL Cup Semi-Final First Leg? Opta Analyst.
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