The Islamic Republic of Iran has survived a decades-long siege since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979, but today its enemies at home and abroad look stronger than ever while its support has shrunk to its lowest level ever.
Yet, so long as the Iranian authorities keep control of the streets by killing protesters and the security forces suffer no significant defections, they should be able to withstand the pressure. But they have few policy options beyond a reliance on brute force.
The present bloodbath in the streets has been devastating, with the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency saying that at least 544 people have been killed so far, including 496 protesters and 48 people from the security forces. It believes that more than 10,600 people have been arrested over the two weeks of protests.
Anti-government mass protests have taken place before in 2009, 2019, 2021 and 2022 but have been crushed or fizzled out. This time around, however, they include Iranians previously supportive of the theocratic government. The spark igniting the present wave of protests came when the economy, weakened by sanctions, took another lurch downwards on 28 December as the Iranian currency, the ryal, reached its lowest level ever against the US dollar.
Bazaar merchants, a crucial component of the coalition that overthrew the Shah, have become increasingly alienated over the last 20 years. They joined the protests, posting videos of their closed shops. People in poorer districts in cities and towns across Iran also appear to be joining in the protests, though an internet blackout and partisan postings make the extent of this impossible to judge.
Supreme leader Ali Khamenei has sought to distinguish between “legitimate” protests from the bazaar and the regime change demands of more secular Iranians seeking a final end to theocratic rule. “We talk to protesters,” declared Khamenei: “The officials must talk to them, but there is no benefit to talking to rioters. Rioters must be put in their place.” So far there is little sign that this bid to divide the protesters is working. Moreover, though the high death toll among demonstrators may deter some, others will be energised into action.
The Islamic Republic has survived isolation before during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) when its enemies included the US, Soviet Union and the Sunni Muslim states of the Arab world. Back then, Ayatollah Khomeini enjoyed veneration from millions of Iranians as the spiritual leader of the Shia version of Islam.
The Shia communities in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere, armed and organised by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), made Iran a regional power in the Middle East. This “Axis of Resistance” reached its peak power some 10 years ago, but the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, the IRGC leader of the Shia paramilitaries, on the orders of President Donald Trump in 2020, marked a turning point.
This decline in Iran’s position in the region became precipitous with the start of the Gaza war in 2023, leading to Israel, strongly backed by the US, defeating the powerful Shia militia Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2024. For 50 years, Iran’s strongest ally in the Arab world was Syria, but Syrian president Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in November 2024 without Iran being able to do anything effective to help him.
For decades, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had sought to persuade the US to join him in an attack on Iran, and in June 2025 he finally succeeded in doing so. During Israel’s 12-day war against Iran, it gained total control of Iranian airspace, the war culminating in US bombers launching a massive assault on Iranian nuclear facilities on 22 June.
Iran was militarily over-matched by its traditional enemies, but this strategic weakness was all the deeper because of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Soviet Union, and later Russia, had provided back-up for Iran, but with all its resources devoted to the Ukraine war, Moscow withdrew from the Middle East. The Iranian leadership did not know what to do except try to avoid an all-out war with Israel or the US. Realistically, Iranian leaders may not have had a better option, but Israel repeatedly caught the IRGC by surprise, assassinating its leaders in Lebanon, Syria and finally Iran itself. The regime looked as if it had atrophied, lost its revolutionary vigour and religious fanaticism, unable to repel or conciliate its myriad enemies.
Your next read
square SARAH DITUM Who broke Britain?Ed Miliband: the man to blame for the wreckage of this Labour Government
square LUCY MANGANIf you’re not hiding money from your husband – you need to start now
square SADIE FROSTSadie Frost: Outdoor toilets and ‘pop’ from a lorry – I miss my 70s childhood
square POPPY JAYI wore the sari from my forced marriage to my 40th. What I felt surprised me
These opponents may now be coming together. President Donald Trump says he will intervene militarily to “rescue” protesters. “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before,” wrote Trump said on Saturday on social media. “The USA stands ready to help!!!,” he added.
Going by his usual modus operandi – the drone strike assassination of Soleimani in 2020, bombing of Iran in 2025, kidnap of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela – Trump prefers violent single strikes, but avoids long-term military entanglements, as in Afghanistan and Iraq. He might wish to cut some sort of deal with the existing Iranian leadership as in Venezuela, but hostility to America as “the Great Satan” is hardwired into the Islamic Republic’s ideology.
Could the siege of the Islamic Republic be over in any foreseeable future? Can 92 million Iranians look forward to more normal, peaceful and prosperous lives? Any optimism about popular pressure on the streets and foreign intervention delivering such a positive outcome is contradicted by past precedent. In Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, regime change promoted from outside produced disaster. Nasty regimes were replaced by ones equally nasty or even nastier, or by no regime at all and a ferocious civil war. Nations that had once achieved self-determination from colonial masters found that self-determination snuffed out. The struggle for Iran is far from over.
Hence then, the article about trump s next move will reshape the middle east was published today ( ) and is available on inews ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Trump’s next move will reshape the Middle East )
Also on site :