As a four-day internet blackout sweeps through Iran, US President Donald Trump said that members of the country’s regime had shown an interest in holding talks with Washington, even as he weighed an armed response to the violent crackdown on protesters.
Speaking to journalists aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump suggested Iran was getting close to what he had previously called a “red line”, noting that the number of protesters being killed appeared to be rising.
Trump said the situation was being closely monitored at the highest levels of government, including by the US military. “The military’s looking at it. We’re looking at some very strong options, we’ll make a determination,” he said.
While he stopped short of outlining any specific action, he stressed that the administration viewed the escalation “seriously” and would decide how to proceed following further evaluation.
He claimed Iranian officials had made contact to propose negotiations, framing the approach as evidence that pressure on Tehran was having an effect, saying Iran was seeking talks after coming under sustained pressure from the United States.
However, he offered no details on when such discussions might take place or what they would involve.
On Sunday, conservative Iranian parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said in a speech that the regime is currently at war with the US on four fronts, which he called the “economic, cognitive, military, and terrorist wars”.
Responding to recent statements from Trump saying that the US “stands ready to help” Iranian protesters, Ghalibaf said: “So that you do not make any miscalculation, be aware that in case of an attack on Iran, both [Israel] and all the American military centres, bases, and ships in the region will be our legitimate targets.”
What has transpired in Iran in the past 48 hours?
Following the ongoing, two-week protests, blackouts led by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have remained in place for almost 96 hours, with internet and landlines remaining cut.
British-Iranian campaign group United4Mahsa said that in the past 48 hours, there had been an escalation in Iran’s national uprising, with protests reported in all of Iran’s 31 provinces.
It reported that the death toll from protest-related violence in Iran has risen dramatically since 28 December, with at least 538 people reportedly killed — nearly ten times higher than earlier figures which stood at 62. The numbers are unverified as an official death toll has yet to be released.
The campaign group said eyewitnesses across the country had described overwhelmed hospitals and disturbing scenes, including in Rasht in the Gilan Province, where dozens of bodies were reportedly brought to a hospital in a single night, filling the morgue to capacity. Arrests have surged, with at least 10,600 protesters detained, a sharp increase from the previously reported 2,200.
State officials have taken an increasingly hardline stance. On 11 January, the head of the judiciary issued what he called a “last ultimatum” to protesters, announcing the formation of special courts to swiftly prosecute those deemed responsible for unrest.
Senior security and political figures characterised protests as terrorist activity comparable to Isis, rejecting claims that security forces were responsible for protester deaths and instead alleging the involvement of foreign-trained agents.
State media has focused heavily on security force casualties while downplaying civilian deaths. Regime outlets reported that at least 114 members of the police, IRGC, and Basij were killed outside Tehran, declaring three days of national mourning and urging participation in pro-regime rallies.
“No matter what has been said by whom, it’s important to remember we have not had full access to Iran for almost four days now,” Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told The i Paper.
“It has been an extremely violent round of protests in Iran. I would argue the most destabilising for the republic. The fact that the protests might be tapering down is merely a result of government violence and repression.”
What actions could Trump take?
“There are three or four that are correct on the table,” said Vakil.
“The first is using physical forces, but this could depend on Trump’s objective. What is he trying to achieve and is the objective to support the protesters? If he does strike bases around the country, the risk is great as it’s unknown what it might facilitate.”
Vakil said a second option would be cyber aid, such as getting Starlink up and running, and a third would be providing symbolic support such as putting posts on social media.
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Early in the protests, Trump warned the Iranian regime that if it shot at demonstrators, “the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go”.
But Trump is aware that a military approach would meet major challenges in Iran, and is too dangerous for now, added Dr Vakil.
“The third option would mean Trump wouldn’t need to put his money where his mouth is,” he said.
“Right now the risks are too many and too uncertain and the US government is watching the situation very carefully.”
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