We look ahead to Sunday’s FA Cup third-round tie at Old Trafford, with our Man Utd vs Brighton prediction and preview. Will crisis-hit United succumb to the Seagulls?
Man Utd vs Brighton: The Key Stats
For all their woes, managerless Manchester United are still favourites to reach the fourth round of the cup, with Opta’s supercomputer giving the hosts a 42.3% chance of victory. United have faced Brighton in six previous FA Cup ties and have won them all, most recently in the 2023 semi-finals, prevailing 7-6 on penalties after a goalless draw. Brighton have progressed from 14 of their last 16 FA Cup third-round ties: the exceptions were against Hull City in 2016 and Sheffield Wednesday four years later.Both teams drew in the Premier League’s latest midweek round, but Manchester United and Brighton came away with different emotions: United slipped up again and the Seagulls stopped Manchester City in their tracks. So, should the visitors win on Sunday, would it really be classed as a cup upset?
United’s first match since Ruben Amorim abruptly left was played out in all too familiar fashion, as Darren Fletcher’s caretaker spell began with a disappointing 2-2 draw in Burnley.
Failing to take maximum points against Premier League strugglers, even a Benjamin Sesko brace wasn’t enough to get the post-Amorim era off to a successful start, with the Red Devils conceding a spectacular leveller, having initially fallen behind through Ayden Heaven’s own goal.
As a result, United have recorded three consecutive top-flight draws for the first time since December 2018, missing another opportunity to go fourth in the table.
With debate still raging – externally, and perhaps internally, too – about who will take charge for both the short and long term, they must now return to knockout competition. Of course, their last cup tie became infamous due to Amorim’s very public meltdown at Blundell Park back in August.
United’s Manager Options
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2 days ago Ryan BensonMarking a low point in his stay, United were memorably turfed out of the EFL Cup by Grimsby Town – losing on penalties after fighting back to draw 2-2 – but they’ve only been eliminated from the FA Cup third round twice across their last 40 ties at this stage, losing to Leeds in 2010 and Swansea City four years later.
Furthermore, United beat Brighton 4-2 in the clubs’ most recent league meeting, with a rare victory over the south-coast club in October. Bryan Mbeumo, who is now away at the Africa Cup of Nations, struck twice on that occasion, but Fletcher will have fewer resources at his disposal when the Seagulls return to Old Trafford.
In fact, Fabian Hürzeler’s team made their way up to Manchester as recently as Wednesday, when Kaoru Mitoma‘s 60th-minute equaliser secured a point against title contenders Manchester City.
Ferdi Kadioglu and Georginio Rutter had both missed chances to score during an open first half, but salvaging a draw at least extended Albion’s unbeaten streak against City to four.
Having now claimed 13 points from losing positions this season – only Aston Villa (18) have recovered more – Brighton never know when they’re beaten, and that surely bodes well for the cut and thrust of FA Cup football.
They may sit three points behind United in the Premier League standings, but the Seagulls have actually won four of the last six meetings – including a pair of 3-1 wins at the Theatre of Dreams.
Still, despite all their issues, United have scored at least once in their last nine league games, and they’ve suffered just two defeats since the end of September.
While Mbeumo and Amad Diallo will still be in action at AFCON, Matheus Cunha has also helped sharpen a previously blunt attack. The Brazil striker scored in his last four FA Cup appearances for Wolves. Since 1993, only four Premier League players have reached five in a row: Marc Overmars (1998-1999), Darren Bent (2012-2014), Wayne Rooney (2011-2013) and Romelu Lukaku (2014-2016 & 2017-2018).
Sesko scored two goals at Burnley – as many as across his first 16 Premier League appearances – and, barring rotation, he will again link up with United’s main man Bruno Fernandes. The Red Devils’ skipper has provided the most Premier League assists this season (eight); only in 2020-21 (12) and 2024-25 (10) has he tallied more in a single campaign.
For their part, Brighton are still missing Mbeumo’s Cameroon teammate Carlos Baleba – a noted transfer target for United – but his absence is being covered by Pascal Gross, who made his first start since coming back from Borussia Dortmund in midweek.
Of course, ex-United striker Danny Welbeck will be keen to start against his boyhood club, having scored seven times against them since leaving – including once earlier this season and once in the FA Cup for Arsenal.
Another veteran seeking promotion from the bench, James Milner, has just become the fifth outfielder to play in the Premier League while aged 40+, after Kevin Phillips (four appearances) and three United stars – Gordon Strachan (six), Ryan Giggs (six) and Teddy Sheringham (24).
Man Utd vs Brighton Head-to-Head
Brighton have been eliminated from the FA Cup six times by United, the most they’ve ever been knocked out by one club.
In the league, though, the Seagulls have won on three of their last four visits to Old Trafford while scoring 10 goals.
United did beat Brighton 4-2 on home turf earlier this season, also prevailing on penalties when the pair met at Wembley in the 2023 FA Cup semi-final.
Man Utd vs Brighton Prediction
United should end their wait for a win, according to the Opta supercomputer, with their chance of success rated at a healthy 42.3%.
Despite their strong record at Old Trafford, Brighton went straight through to round four in just 31% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
So, there remains a 26.7% chance of this tie going to extra-time – and potentially penalties.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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