We look ahead to Saturday’s FA Cup third-round tie with our Tottenham vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. Can Spurs overcome a dismal run of domestic form to beat Unai Emery’s side and take revenge for last season’s fourth-round exit?
Tottenham vs Aston Villa: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer is tipping Aston Villa to advance to the fourth round, with the visitors beating Tottenham inside 90 minutes across 43.7% of the pre-match simulations for this tie. Spurs have reached the fourth round in 18 of their last 19 FA Cup campaigns, doing so in each of the last 11 seasons since losing 2-0 at Arsenal in 2013-14. Aston Villa may have won their last two FA Cup third-round ties, but were eliminated at this stage of the competition in each of the previous seven seasons.The third round of the 2025–26 FA Cup sees sides from the Premier League and Championship enter the draw of football’s oldest competition, and one of four all-top flight ties this weekend pits Tottenham Hotspur against Aston Villa.
Both are well-placed to reach the knockout stages of their respective European competitions, but Spurs and Villa will also be keen to progress as far as they can in the FA Cup.
Aston Villa come into this game following a fantastic run of recent Premier League form, but it is quite the opposite for hosts Tottenham, who suffered a stoppage-time 3-2 defeat at Bournemouth in midweek.
João Palhinha equalised in the 78th minute after Bournemouth had twice hit back from Mathys Tel’s early opener for Spurs, but Antoine Semenyo struck in the fifth minute of added time to break the visitors’ hearts late on.
That last-gasp loss leaves Tottenham without a victory from three games in 2026, and Thomas Frank’s side have won just two of their last 12 Premier League games in a run stretching back to November.
Furthermore, since the start of last season, only Wolves have suffered more Premier League defeats (36) than Tottenham, who have now lost 30 times (level with West Ham and Southampton).
Back in London, Villa failed to build on their recent run of form, drawing 0-0 with Crystal Palace, but picking up an away point that still keeps them in the Premier League title race.
With Tottenham languishing in 14th place, Unai Emery’s side sit third in the table, level with Manchester City above them and trailing Arsenal by six points after 13 wins from their last 16 league games.
Villa saw their 10–game Premier League scoring streak halted at Selhurst Park, drawing a blank for the first time since a 2-0 defeat at Liverpool in November.
Villa have already won 2-1 at Spurs in the Premier League this season, and were victorious by the same scoreline at Villa Park in the fourth round of last season’s FA Cup.
The last top-flight side that Villa beat twice away from home in a single campaign was Norwich City back in 2012-13, but their record against Tottenham will give the visitors plenty of encouragement.
Tottenham have lost two of their last three FA Cup ties against Aston Villa, including last term’s fourth-round exit. The last team to eliminate Spurs from the FA Cup in consecutive seasons was Manchester United in 2007-08 and 2008-09.
A quick turnaround from the Premier League’s midweek fixtures could yield wholesale changes for both sides in the FA Cup, but two of Tottenham’s key players against Bournemouth are likely to keep their places.
Tel has three Premier League goals in 2025-26, and netted their only goal against Villa in last season’s FA Cup.
Furthermore, Bayern Munich loanee Palhinha has five direct goal involvements for Spurs this term with three strikes and two assists, his joint-most in a Premier League campaign.
Morgan Rogers has spearheaded Aston Villa’s rapid rise up the Premier League table with seven goals and four assists, and the England international will be relishing another match-up against Tottenham.
The 23-year-old has been involved in five goals across four appearances against Spurs in all competitions (three goals, two assists), setting up Jacob Ramsey before scoring himself in Villa’s fourth-round win at Villa Park last season.
In terms of injuries, Tottenham have been badly hit. Already without the trio of James Maddison, Dominic Solanke and Dejan Kulusevski, Lucas Bergvall and Rodrigo Bentancur have suffered muscle injuries, while Frank revealed that Mohammed Kudus is likely to be out until the March international break with a thigh issue.
The visitors will be without Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley, but Spurs and Villa could welcome back defenders Destiny Udogie and Tyrone Mings from their respective thigh injuries for this match.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
Aston Villa have already travelled to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season, coming back from behind to beat Spurs 2-1 in October and win their third of four games in a row.
Rodrigo Bentancur had put the hosts into an early lead, but Rogers responded with an equaliser before half-time, and Emiliano Buendía netted the Villans’ winning goal in the 77th minute.
The two also have recent history in the FA Cup, meeting at Villa Park in last season’s fourth round. Jacob Ramsey opened the scoring 60 seconds and Rogers doubled Villa’s advantage midway through the second half, with Tel netting an injury-time consolation goal for Spurs.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa Prediction
The two sides’ contrasting runs of recent form are reflected by the Opta supercomputer, which has Aston Villa as favourites to claim an away win in north London and advance to the fourth round at Tottenham’s expense.
From 10,000 pre-match simulations, the Villans were victorious on 43.7% occasions.
A Tottenham win has been given a 31.1% probability by contrast, with a 25.2% likelihood of a draw, but with no FA Cup replays from this round onwards, the tie will be settled in either extra-time or on penalties if the scores are level after 90 minutes.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off in London on Saturday evening, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Tottenham vs Aston Villa Prediction: Can Spurs Turn Wretched Form Around in FA Cup Rematch Against In-Form Villa? Opta Analyst.
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