Breaking down the semifinal matchups in the College Football Playoff. Matt Hinton is 5-3 ATS in the Playoff. A bold • denotes his pick in the semifinals.
Everybody has their pet complaints about the College Football Playoff, from which teams are in the field, to how many of them are, to who picked them and how. We’ve heard ’em all, and surely will again this time next year. For now, though, you gotta hand it to them: The boys are absolutely settling this thing on the field, and nobody knows exactly what’s going to play out.
Consider how different this postseason would look in any previous era, and how meager by comparison.
Of the 4 teams left standing, only 1 — undefeated, top-ranked Indiana, still an incredible sequence of words to type — would have had any standing in any other format. In fact, with a Big Ten title, 14-0 record, and blowout victory in the Rose Bowl under their belt, the Hoosiers have already accomplished more than most of the teams that have ever laid claim to the “national championship” over the past century.
All that means in 2026 is that they still have the opportunity to win two more before they’re eligible to join the club.
As for the other 3, as recently as 2 years ago Miami, Ole Miss and Oregon all would have been left out of the championship equation entirely, relegated to a consolation bowl without even much of an argument.
No combination of polls, rigged algorithms, or committee deliberations could have ever delivered this exact set of circumstances, or would have aspired to. The only process that could is the one we should have had a long time ago, and they we’re blessed to have at last: Playing the damn games. …
Fiesta Bowl: Miami (-3.5) vs. Ole Miss
Kickoff: 7:30 pm ET, Thursday night, Jan. 8 (ESPN).
When Miami Has the Ball
The last time Carson Beck faced an Ole Miss defense, he was beaten to a pulp. That was a little more than a year ago, in November 2024, on the worst afternoon of Beck’s tenure as QB1 at Georgia — a 28-10 mugging in which the Rebels sacked him 5 times, hounded him into a pair of turnovers, and announced their arrival as a Playoff-caliber program. In retrospect, it was also the beginning of the end of the Beck era in Athens. A month later, he was in the portal with a busted shoulder.
Eye-watering salary aside, Beck is essentially the same quarterback at Miami that SEC fans remember from his days at UGA: Highly efficient, not very mobile, and fully capable of going on a random interception spree without warning. The one thing he definitely is not this time around is a sitting duck. Per Pro Football Focus, he’s been the best protected quarterback in America, even more so than he ever was at Georgia, facing pressure on just 15.8% of his total drop-backs this season. That’s not just the lowest rate in the FBS in 2025; it’s tied for the lowest rate of any power conference quarterback over a full season in the PFF database dating to 2014, matched only by Oregon’s Bo Nix in 2023.
Like Nix at the end of his far-flung college career, at this point Beck is a well-seasoned, 5th-year vet with 41 career starts who is largely responsible for his own self-preservation. His average time to throw this season was just 2.35 seconds, 2nd-fastest in the FBS, and his attempts were twice as likely to land behind the line of scrimmage (25.8%) as they were 20+ yards downfield (12.8%). But he has also had the luxury of a surrounding cast that makes life in the pocket a lot easier. Massive junior tackle Francis Mauigoa, a consensus All-American, was on the short list of the best protectors in the country and is poised to be the first o-lineman off the board in April. Three of Miami’s other 4 starters up front have yet to allow a sack, per PFF. Meanwhile, the guy on the receiving end of most of those short throws, dynamic freshman Malachi Toney, is the rare YAC specialist who makes the horizontal stuff worth it; he forced more missed tackles (31) and accounted for more yards after catch (664) than any other Power 4 receiver.
The biggest difference between Thursday night and the ambush in Oxford 14 months ago is on the other side of the ball. Five of the top 6 pass rushers from Ole Miss’ dominant 2024 defensive front left for the NFL, resulting in a decline that was as steep as it was predictable. Last year, the Rebels averaged an FBS-best 4.0 sacks per game and had 4 starters with a PFF pass rush grade of 75 or higher. This year, they’ve averaged just 2.1 sacks per game, tied for 48th nationally, and don’t have a single player with a 75+ pass-rushing grade.
They plummeted from 3rd nationally in havoc rate to 126th. The only notable holdover, junior Suntarine Perkins, shifted into a more conventional linebacker role that has called on him to drop into coverage more than he’s rushed the passer. (Perkins did have a key sack late in the Rebels’ Sugar Bowl win over Georgia, taking advantage of evident confusion along the Bulldogs o-line to arrive free in the backfield on a crucial 4th-down attempt; that was just his 3rd sack of the year, down from a team-high 11 in 2024.) The most productive rusher off the edge, Nebraska transfer Princewill Umanmielen, has run hot and cold. And the most versatile, blue-chip sophomore Kam Franklin, was listed as questionable on the initial injury report.
Then again, even this late stage of his career, Beck doesn’t necessarily need to be under extreme duress to be baited into mistakes. Twenty of his 28 interceptions over the past 3 seasons have come from clean pockets, including 7 of his 10 INTs this year — and 3 of the 4 picks he threw in a midseason meltdown against Louisville. He was not picked in either of Miami’s previous CFP wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State, but didn’t do much to move the needle in those games, either, throwing for a combined 241 yards on just 5.4 yards per attempt. For his part, Ole Miss coach Pete Golding has been reluctant to dial up the aggression, with the blitz rate rarely eclipsing 20% in any game. (It was exactly 20% in the Sugar Bowl; in the 2024 romp that put Beck in the crosshairs, it was just over 15%.) As long as the Rebels can hold up against the run and keep the lid on in the secondary, there’s a decent chance the rest will continue to fall into place.
Key matchup: Miami OL James Brockermeyer vs. Ole Miss DL Will Echoles
Brockermeyer, an undersized, 5th-year journeyman with previous stops at Alabama (2021-23) and TCU (2024), might be the least-heralded member of Miami’s o-line, at least as far as the scouts are concerned. As the starting center, though, he’s been pivotal to the unit’s success — literally and figuratively. As a pass blocker, he hasn’t allowed a sack all year, or so much as a pressure in the past 4 games. As a run blocker, he’s been one of the unsung grunts of the Playoff run: Per PFF’s charting, the lion’s share of workhorse RB Mark Fletcher Jr.‘s output in the wins over Texas A&M and Miami came on runs between the guards in both games. Cue up Fletcher’s sizzle reel, and you’ll find No. 52 putting in work.
Brockermeyer will have his hands full with Echoles, a 310-pound sophomore who came on strong over the second half of the season as a classic B-gap plugger. In the end, he led all SEC interior d-linemen in sacks (5), tackles for loss (11) and stops (33), earning a first-team all-conference nod from the media in his first season as a starter. (As well as from me.) Between Echoles and the massive Zxavian Harris, size in the middle of the line is certainly not an issue. Consistency, on the other hand, remains a work in progress. The dirty work in the trenches will go a long way toward dictating how much of the offense winds up on Beck’s plate.
When Ole Miss Has the Ball
Speculation in the lead-up to this game has mainly concerned Ole Miss’ coaches — specifically, which members of the staff who followed Lane Kiffin to LSU are going to be oh-so-graciously allowed to pull double duty while the Rebels’ Playoff run remains a going concern. And sure, it’s nice to know that offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. remains on the headset. But let’s be real here. There is only question that matters when Ole Miss has the ball, and it has nothing to do with who’s in the press box or standing on the sideline: Can the Rebels block Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor?
Can anyone in college football? So far, the answer is a definitive NOPE.
Ohio State couldn’t block them in the quarterfinals. Texas A&M couldn’t block them in Round 1. The ACC couldn’t block them throughout the regular season. Florida most definitely couldn’t block them when the Gators visited Miami in September. Notre Dame couldn’t block them all the way back in the season-opener, the ghost of which haunted the Irish all the way to the end. More than any other factor, the combination of Bain and Mesidor is the reason the Hurricanes are in the bracket to begin with, the reason they have advanced despite a couple of thoroughly mediocre outings on offense in the first 2 rounds, and the reason they have a fighting chance to win it all.
Let’s just focus on the Playoff wins over the Buckeyes and Aggies. Between them, Bain and Mesidor combined for an outrageous 33 QB pressures, 8 sacks and 9 tackles for loss, thoroughly wrecking 2 of the most explosive offenses in the country in the process. (Bain also blocked a field goal attempt in College Station, for good measure.) Texas A&M never found the end zone, finishing with season-lows for points (3), yards (326) and yards per play (4.4) while committing 3 turnovers. Ohio State didn’t fare much better, managing just 14 points to go with a season-low 129.7 passer rating for QB prodigy Julian Sayin and the worst rushing total of Ryan Day’s tenure (45 yards, including negative yardage on sacks).
Ole Miss’ offensive line is a perfectly cromulent group, but there are no sleights of hand when it comes to winning 1-on-1 against a couple of future NFL first-rounders. One thing the Rebels do have going for them, of course, is the creativity of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, whose instincts for self-preservation take a wildly different (and far more entertaining) form than Beck’s. Ole Miss’ offense is also designed around a lot of quick-hitters and RPOs that emphasize getting the ball out of the QB’s hands quickly. But Chambliss’ elusiveness under pressure is a wild card that’s difficult to account for. His MVP turn against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl was all the more compelling because he pulled it off largely in Backyard Mode, at one point effectively engineering a 75-yard touchdown drive in the 4th quarter by the seat of his pants.
It will not surprise you that Chambliss is PFF’s top-graded quarterback nationally on pressured drop-backs. The caveat is that there just weren’t that many of them: Ironically, only Beck was pressured at a lower rate this season. Although it seemed like more, Chambliss was under duress on just 8 of his 46 drop-backs in the Sugar Bowl, instead inflicting the vast majority of his damage from clean pockets. If there’s any QB in the college game you want ad-libbing with the likes of Bain and Mesidor are bearing down, Chambliss might be the pick in a pinch. But there are only so many rabbits in the hat.
Key matchup: Ole Miss WR De’Zhaun Stribling vs. Miami DB OJ Frederique Jr.
Facing a gotta-have-it situation with the clock ticking down at the end of the Sugar Bowl, Chambliss looked to Stribling, the most seasoned player on the team with 2,961 career D-I snaps at 3 different schools. He responded with a 40-yard reception against press man coverage, setting up the game-winning field goal. That capped Stribling’s best night as a Rebel, establishing season highs for both catches (7) and yards (122) at the biggest possible moment.
Although he lined up in the slot on that play, the 6-2, 210-pound Stribling spends most of his time on the outside, where Frederique, a Freshman All-American in 2024, has only recently returned to the lineup after missing the back half of the regular season with an undisclosed injury. Miami’s first-round win at Texas A&M was Frederique’s first game back since late October, and looked like it: The Aggies completed 4-of-4 targets at his expense for 86 yards, including their only big play of the day, a 59-yard strike from Marcel Reed to Mario Craver. Frederique fared slightly better against Ohio State, giving up a couple of first-down completions to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate but nothing egregious. If you can survive opposite Smith and Tate, you can survive anything. And against an Ole Miss offense that is never shy about testing opposing corners, “anything” is exactly what he should be prepared for.
Special teams, injuries and other vagaries
When Ole Miss swiped kicker Lucas Carneiro in the portal last winter, it was primarily for his range: At his last stop, Western Kentucky, he was a perfect 6-for-6 on attempts of 50+ yards in 2024. As of midnight on Jan. 1, he’d hit just once from long range as a Rebel, on 2 tries. But the investment in his leg paid off when they needed it most. Against Georgia, Carneiro broke the Sugar Bowl record for distance twice in the span of a few minutes, following up a 55-yarder with a 56-yarder on consecutive possessions in the first quarter. (Both would have good from well beyond 60, easily.) Later, he capped a career night by burying the game-winner from 47 yards out in the waning seconds, cementing one of the outstanding kicking performances of the season. With that, Carneiro improved to 27-for-30 for the year, tied for the FBS lead in successful kicks.
Miami kicker Carter Davis had the opposite experience in the ‘Canes’ first-round win at Texas A&M, missing 3-of-4 field-goal attempts in heavy winds. Indoors, he should be fine. Davis hit his only attempt against Ohio State from 49 yards, improving to 15-for-17 on the year when not being mocked by the trickster wind god Aeolus.
Miami’s Malachi Toney might be the most dangerous punt returner in the country who somehow didn’t actually return one for a touchdown. He came close, breaking off 3 returns of 40+ yards, including a 55-yarder at Texas A&M that looked like a house call until he tripped himself in the process of high-stepping out of a tackle in the open field. Anytime he’s back there, Toney is designated “Do Not Kick It to Him Under Any Circumstances” for the rest of his career, regardless of whether he ever manages to take one back in that capacity.
The respective depth charts are about as healthy and intact as it gets this time of year. Only 1 starter on either side appeared on the initial injury report: Ole Miss DL Kam Franklin, who was listed as “questionable” with an undisclosed injury. That would be a significant loss, given Franklin’s inside/out versatility; he’s 2nd on the team in QB pressures (45) and sacks (5) while splitting reps between the edge and the interior, a dual role the Rebels don’t really ask anyone else on the front to play on a regular basis. Meanwhile, of the dozen or so players on both teams who have already entered their names in the portal, the most recognizable, Ole Miss QB1-turned-backup Austin Simmons, will remain available for the rest of the Rebels’ Playoff run before shipping out to compete for the starting job at Missouri.
Bottom line … and prediction
At this point, the ongoing drama surrounding the comings and goings of Ole Miss’ coaching staff probably has more impact in the headlines than it does on the field. By Game 15, the hay is in the barn, as they say. Golding represents stability at the top, Charlie Weis Jr. supplies continuity as the offensive play-caller, and Joe Judge is on hand to do whatever it is he does. As for the players, though, they’ve been together for a full year now. They know the schemes, they know each other, they know the drill. They didn’t beat Georgia because Golding is a motivational genius. Get them to the stadium on time, and they should be able to handle most of the rest themselves.
If only handling Bain and Mesidor along the line of scrimmage was that simple.
One name I haven’t mentioned yet is All-SEC running back Kewan Lacy, who had a significant role in the Sugar Bowl despite some doubts about his availability due to a shoulder injury he suffered in the Rebels’ first-round win over Tulane; if nothing else, a viable ground game can prevent Miami’s pass rush from pinning its ears back. At some point, though, Ole Miss is going to have to actually block those guys when they know Chambliss is going to put the ball in the air, and based on how the Canes’ past 2 games have unfolded, that is strictly a “believe it when you see it” proposition.
Prediction: • Miami 29 | Ole Miss 24
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