Thursday’s lone Premier League fixture is a gargantuan battle at the top of the table, but which way will it go? We look ahead to the game with our Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs Liverpool: The Key Facts
The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal overwhelming favourites to defeat Liverpool on Thursday, with the Gunners boasting a 61.7% win probability to the Reds’ 18.1%. However, against no side have Arsenal lost more Premier League games than they have against Liverpool, and the Reds are looking to complete an eighth double over the Gunners following August’s 1-0 success at Anfield. Bukayo Saka could become the first player in Arsenal’s league history to score in four consecutive home games against Liverpool.After Dominik Szoboszlai’s stunning free-kick guided Liverpool to a 1-0 home win over Arsenal in August, maintaining the champions’ perfect start to the Premier League season, many would have expected January’s reverse fixture to have title implications for both teams.
But following the Reds’ dismal run in the Autumn, 14 points split these rivals ahead of Thursday’s meeting at the Emirates Stadium, with the title only appearing a realistic aim for the Gunners.
Mikel Arteta’s side could hardly have wished for a better start to 2026. While Manchester City have dropped points twice since the turn of the year, drawing 0-0 with Sunderland and 1-1 with Chelsea, Arsenal battled to a topsy-turvy 3-2 victory at Bournemouth last time out.
They now boast a six-point gap to both City and Aston Villa going into Matchday 21, and the Opta supercomputer rates their chances of winning the title at a huge 85.7%. City only won the title in 10.9% of our season simulations, with Villa doing so in 4.2% and Liverpool’s chances now virtually non-existent at 0.07%.
Arsenal’s lead
Premier LeagueSix Points Clear After 20 Matches: What Does History Tell Us About Arsenal’s Title Chances?
19 hours ago Oliver HopkinsArsenal will know how City and Villa have got on before taking to the field for their midweek fixture, but results elsewhere notwithstanding, Arteta will see this meeting with the champions as a crucial checkpoint for his side.
Arsenal have won their last two home Premier League matches against the reigning champions, beating City in both 2023-24 and 2024-25. They last did so in three consecutive league seasons between 1961-62 and 1963-64, when they beat Tottenham, Ipswich Town and Everton.
And their home form has been excellent lately, winning their last seven Premier League games at the Emirates. Only once under Arteta have they enjoyed a longer such run, winning 10 straight games on their own turf between April and December 2022.
Arsenal excelled on the road versus Bournemouth, too, with Declan Rice scoring his first Premier League brace in his 296th appearance in the competition. Gabriel Magalhães was also on target for the second straight game, atoning for an error that gifted Evanilson the opening goal of the contest.
Gabriel’s set-piece prowess could be a factor again on Thursday, with Arne Slot highlighting Liverpool’s poor performance from dead balls over the festive period. The Reds have shipped the joint-most goals from set-pieces in the Premier League this season (13, level with Bournemouth), with 46.4% of the goals they have conceded coming via this route.
Arsenal, meanwhile, lead the league for goals (12, joint with Leeds United) and expected goals (9.9 xG) from set plays. Liverpool have also struggled with attacking set-pieces, ranking 18th in the division for xG from dead balls (4.7).
But the visitors will have to worry about more than free-kicks and corners, with Bukayo Saka having developed a knack for finding the net against Liverpool in recent years.
He has scored in each of the Gunners’ last three home Premier League games versus Liverpool. In their league history, no Arsenal player has ever netted in four consecutive home league games against Liverpool.
Slot’s side dropped two points at the death in Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Fulham, as Harrison Reed’s rasping long-range strike beat Alisson in the seventh minute of second-half stoppage time, just three minutes after Cody Gakpo had put Liverpool 2-1 up.
Timed at 93 minutes and 53 seconds, Gakpo’s goal was the fourth-latest on record (since 2006-07) that a side took the lead in a Premier League match without then going on to win.
Gakpo has scored three Premier League goals away from home this season, and all of those strikes have come in his last four league appearances in London, netting at Chelsea, West Ham and Fulham. He could now become only the second different Liverpool player to score in four different away matches in London in a Premier League season, after Mohamed Salah did so in both 2017-18 and 2020-21.
Florian Wirtz should also have a spring in his step after netting at Craven Cottage, making it three goal involvements (two goals, one assist) in his last four appearances in the competition, after he failed to register a single goal contribution in his first 15.
Liverpool opted against risking Hugo Ekitiké against Fulham after he suffered from discomfort in his thigh, but Slot is hopeful of having the Frenchman available, particularly with Salah still at the Africa Cup of Nations and Alexander Isak out for the long term.
Slot’s selection issues in attack could open the door for Szoboszlai to play further forward, and only Bruno Fernandes has been involved in more open-play sequences ending in a shot (116) than his 103 in the Premier League this season.
But if those stats are adjusted to per 90 minutes, excluding players to have played fewer than 1,000 minutes, Arsenal star Saka is third with 6.4, only behind Jérémy Doku (7.2) and Fernandes (7.1).
Arsenal vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
This will be the first-ever Premier League game between Arsenal and Liverpool to take place on a Thursday, with their last Thursday league meeting coming at Anfield in December 1947 – that game finished 3-1 to Arsenal.
Liverpool will become just the second team Arsenal have faced on all seven days of the week in the Premier League, after Southampton.
But against no side have Arsenal lost more Premier League games than they have against Liverpool (26, level with Manchester United).
And Liverpool could complete their eight double over Arsenal in the Premier League era, with their seven season doubles already the most any team has achieved over the Gunners.
Arsenal have also conceded in each of their last 20 Premier League games against Liverpool since a goalless draw in August 2015. Only against Man Utd (30 between 1953 and 1968) and Tottenham (24 between 1955 and 1967) have they ever had a longer run without a clean sheet in their league history.
Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction
Despite Arsenal historically struggling in this fixture, the Opta supercomputer has given them its backing.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Arsenal were victorious in 61.7%, with Liverpool only winning in 18.1% and the remaining 20.2% finishing level.
Arsenal vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Piero Hincapié, Martin Ødegaard, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyökeres.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta.
Liverpool: Alisson Becker, Conor Bradley, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Curtis Jones, Cody Gakpo.
Head coach: Arne Slot.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction: Can Reigning Premier League Champions Damage Leaders’ Title Hopes? Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about arsenal vs liverpool prediction can reigning premier league champions damage leaders title hopes was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction: Can Reigning Premier League Champions Damage Leaders’ Title Hopes? )
Also on site :