The agreement reached in Paris last night (6 January) by Britain and the so-called Coalition of the Willing to put troops on the ground in Ukraine in the event of a peace deal marks a turning point – not only in the war, but in Europe’s understanding of its own security.
On the surface, the commitment is about Ukraine. Kyiv has long insisted that any negotiated settlement must come with hard security guarantees, not paper assurances. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky knows that peace without enforcement is merely a pause before renewed aggression. The prospect of European troops on Ukrainian soil – even away from front lines – is intended to change Moscow’s calculations by raising the costs of violation from the outset. And even if a peace deal is elusive and no British, French or other European soldiers set foot in the country, it sends a clear message.
But the deeper significance lies elsewhere. This is Europe, at last, preparing to defend itself.
For decades, European security has rested on an assumption so ingrained it became invisible: that the United States would always be there. Washington’s nuclear umbrella, logistics, intelligence and sheer military mass allowed European states to underinvest in defence while focusing on prosperity. That assumption is now cracking – with the weekend events in Venezuela showing how little the Trump administration cares for shared norms and values. The question in European capitals is no longer whether the US might one day step back, but how quickly and how far.
American support for Ukraine has already become hostage to domestic politics. Future administrations may deprioritise Europe entirely, focusing instead on Asia or inward-looking agendas. Even without a formal withdrawal from NATO, a less engaged United States would leave Europe exposed in ways it has not had to confront since the Cold War.
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The Paris agreement is therefore as much a signal to Europe itself as it is to Russia. It suggests a growing acceptance that deterrence can no longer be outsourced. European troops in Ukraine would not simply protect a peace deal; they would represent an embryonic European security architecture – one that operates alongside NATO, but is no longer wholly dependent on American leadership.
This matters because Ukraine has become the frontline test of Europe’s credibility. If the continent cannot guarantee security for a country fighting on its doorstep, then its claims to strategic autonomy ring hollow. Conversely, a successful European-led stabilisation force would demonstrate that Europe can act collectively, accept risk and bear responsibility for its own defence.
None of this is without danger. Russia has consistently rejected the presence of Western forces in Ukraine, and escalation risks are real. Domestic politics in coalition countries will also test public appetite for long-term deployments. Yet the alternative – a fragile peace that collapses the moment US attention drifts – may be more dangerous still.
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