Welcome to the Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using analytics and common sense, with a strand of pasta occasionally heaved at the wall when mayhem is rampant. The power rankings will be published each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. (Last week’s edition can be found here.)
The Big 12 was one-and-done in the College Football Playoff. Its champion, Texas Tech, didn’t score a point in losing to a lower seed. Meanwhile, its partner in the CFP hierarchy, the ACC, has two wins and a shot at the championship.
In most every regard, the event could not have gone much worse for the Big 12.
The conference will fare much better, relative to its competition, in the NCAA Tournament. But how much better? Were the field selected today, the Big 12 likely would produce two No. 1 seeds, Arizona and Iowa State, plus five of the top 16 seeds overall.
Our focus here is a slightly different barometer: March Madness participation.
The Big 12 is just two years removed from establishing a conference record with eight NCAA bids. It should equal that figure this March, but could it send nine teams to the field? What about 10? The NET rankings and Quadrant results to date offer a foundation from which we can make a reasonable guess.
Three tiers exist within the Big 12:
— The conference has six NCAA locks based on the quality of their wins and the avoidance of bad losses. Arizona, Iowa State, BYU, Houston, Kansas and Texas Tech could withstand multi-week slumps and remain strongly positioned.
— Six teams are either on the right side of the bubble, the wrong side of the bubble or within eyesight of the bubble, meaning a few well-placed victories in January would make their stretch runs interesting: UCF, Baylor, Colorado, Arizona State, Oklahoma State and TCU.
— Four teams require miracle finishes: Cincinnati, Kansas State, West Virginia and Utah.
The Big 12 needs three of the six bubble sitters to make the field in order to break its two-year-old mark.
The NCAA Tournament selection committee doesn’t consider conference records or conference affiliation, so an established threshold — for wins in Big 12 play or position in the Big 12 standings — does not exist. Last year, Baylor made the cut with a 10-10 conference record; West Virginia did not.
That said, a sub-.500 record in round-robin play is an indicator of bubble trouble and offers a framework for assessing the merits of the six teams on the Big 12’s middle tier.
Based on personnel, performance to date and upcoming schedules, which of the six are capable of winning 10 conference games?
We’ll dispense with Colorado and ASU immediately. Both have sustained losses ghastly enough to elicit deep skepticism: The Buffaloes lost at home to Northern Colorado; the Sun Devils, to Oregon State. Cross both off the list of at-large contenders.
Of the four remaining NCAA candidates, Baylor seems like the safest bet. The Bears have NBA talent, no bad losses and enough solid wins (Creighton, Washington and San Diego State) to suggest they will feast on the bottom rung of the Big 12. (That’s the formula, after all: Feast on the bad teams, win a few home games against the top tier and claw your way to 10-10.)
Let’s move Baylor into the field, giving the Big 12 seven bids regardless of the outcome of the conference tournament.
TCU possesses a favorable DNA, as well, with victories over Florida and Wisconsin and a recent conquest of Baylor combining to make the November loss to New Orleans seem like an outlier.
The selection committee won’t view TCU’s non-conference schedule kindly, so the Horned Frogs can’t leave anything to chance. They need a handful of A-level wins in conference play. We think longtime coach Jamie Dixon and Co. are up to the task.
That’s eight teams in the NCAAs. The Big 12 would need one bid for the two remaining bubble sitters (Oklahoma State or UCF) to establish a conference record.
Any assessment of the Cowboys and Knights requires a significant leap of faith, given their poor recent history. Both teams were 7-13 in conference last year.
Oklahoma State has seven games against the Big 12’s upper crust while UCF has six — and one such victory already secured (over Kansas).
In our view, the Knights are better positioned than OSU to craft a resume worthy of NCAA Tournament inclusion. But are their chances on the high side of 50 percent? Probably not. We aren’t convinced they will accumulate enough wins over the middle and bottom tiers to make the math work. Their talent and consistency are both in question.
The most likely outcome for the Big 12 on Selection Sunday? A record-tying eight bids.
Next on the probability scale: seven bids, followed by nine and then six.
We’ll have loads more clarity by the end of January and will revisit the topic at that point.
To the power rankings …
1. Arizona (14-0/1-0)
Results: won at Utah 97-78 NET ranking: No. 2 Comment: According to the KenPom.com adjusted efficiency ratings, the gap between No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Arizona is equivalent to the gap between No. 2 Arizona and No. 8 Illinois, which doesn’t reflect poorly on the Wildcats so much as it values Michigan at a stratospheric level. (Previous: 1)
2. Iowa State (14-0/1-0)
Results: beat West Virginia 80-59 NET ranking: No. 3 Comment: Meanwhile, the difference between No. 2 Arizona and No. 3 Iowa State in the efficiency ratings (i.e., points per possession) is smaller than between any two teams in the top 12. The Wildcats and Cyclones are basically even when accounting for Arizona’s meatier schedule. (Previous: 2)
3. Houston (13-1/1-0)
Results: won at Cincinnati 67-60 NET ranking: No. 15 Comment: If forced to choose the No. 1 freshman duo in the Big 12, the Hotline would lean to Arizona’s Koa Peat and Brayden Burries over Houston’s Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr. But by March, that order could flip. (Previous: 3)
4. Texas Tech (11-3/1-0)
Results: beat Oklahoma State 102-80 NET ranking: No. 19 Comment: Speaking of duos, the Red Raiders have arguably the best scoring tandem — not in the conference, in the country — in forward JT Toppin and guard Christian Anderson. Combined average: 41.7 points per game. (Previous: 4)
5. BYU (13-1/1-0)
Results: won at Kansas State 83-73 NET ranking: No. 9 Comment: The nation’s leading scorer? That would be Cougars freshman AJ Dybantsa, who’s tied with Tarleton State’s Dior Johnson at 23.1 ppg. He’s also averaging 7.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists and shooting 59 percent from the field. Not bad for a rookie. Not bad at all. (Previous: 5)
6. TCU (11-3/1-0)
Results: beat Baylor 69-63 NET ranking: No. 47 Comment: The six-game winning streak will come to an end sooner than later with the Horned Frogs facing Kansas, Arizona and BYU in succession — and two of the three are on the road. (Previous: 9)
7. UCF (12-1/1-0)
Results: beat Kansas 81-75 NET ranking: No. 32 Comment: We are not believers, at least not yet. But there are more wins available in coming weeks if the Knights continue to play with as much precision on offense as they have displayed recently. (Previous: 10)
8. Kansas (10-4/0-1)
Results: lost at UCF 81-75 NET ranking: No. 18 Comment: It was easy to see the loss in Orlando coming with KU’s 11-day break from all competition and a three-week respite from serious competition. (Previous: 6)
9. Baylor (10-3/0-1)
Results: lost at TCU 69-63 NET ranking: No. 42 Comment: Everything looks solid on the surface with the record and ranking. But one layer deep, holes appear: The Bears have yet to defeat an opponent that would qualify for the NCAA Tournament’s at-large field. (Previous: 7)
10. Colorado (11-3/1-0)
Results: won at ASU 95-89 NET ranking: No. 70 Comment: Half-full view: The Buffaloes have a rare (for them) conference road win. Half-empty view: Their victory in Tempe was not much more substantial than Oregon State’s win there two weeks earlier. (Previous: 12)
11. Oklahoma State (12-2/0-1)
Results: lost at Texas Tech 102-80 NET ranking: No. 82 Comment: The Cowboys received a single point in the AP Top 25 poll prior to Christmas. That alone was a nice gift for coach Steve Lutz after the work he has performed reviving the program. (Previous: 8)
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Pac-12 MBB power ratings: Gonzaga on top, followed by SDSU and Utah State Big 12 MBB 2026 forecast: Our picks for COY, POY all-conference teams Mailbag: Top stories of 2025 — House lawsuit, ACC settlement, Utah PE deal CFP recap: Big Ten, Indiana, ACC thrive as SEC, Big 12, bye teams stumble Oregon’s time has come: Why the Ducks will win the national championship12. Arizona State (9-5/0-1)
Results: lost to Colorado 95-89 NET ranking: No. 86 Comment: The bell hasn’t tolled for Bobby Hurley, who’s in the final year of his contract. But it’s being wheeled into position. (Previous: 11)
13. West Virginia (9-5/0-1)
Results: lost at Iowa State 80-59 NET ranking: No. 89 Comment: We have reached the toss-pasta-at-the-wall stage of the power rankings, where any of four teams could finish last and it would come as little surprise in this corner of the college basketball galaxy. (Previous: 13)
14. Kansas State (9-5/0-1)
Results: lost to BYU 83-73 NET ranking: No. 65 Comment: Not sure anyone drew a more difficult lineup of conference opponents than the Wildcats, who are on the short list of teams least capable of navigating a gauntlet. (Previous: 14)
15. Cincinnati (8-6/0-1)
Results: lost to Houston 67-60 NET ranking: No. 95 Comment: It’s a tad early to relegate anyone to the role of spoiler. But, well … (Previous: 16)
16. Utah (8-6/0-1)
Results: lost to Arizona 97-78 NET ranking: No. 144 Comment: The best we can say about the Utes at this point? The offensive coordinator hire (Kevin McGiven) looks promising. (Previous: 15)
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