Who is Heinz von Foerster?
Foerster was not a crank. A pioneer in computer science, artificial intelligence, physics, biophysics, and other academic disciplines, von Foerster worked with the Pentagon, and was named a Guggenheim fellow twice—so he was a respected academic, and kind of a big deal. His Doomsday paper is very real. Here’s a link to it in the November 1960 issue of Science and a screenshot:
Credit: Science MagazinePreparing for the end
So should we pack it in and prepare for the End Times and death by suffocation? Actually the opposite. Von Foerster’s Doomsday Equation was meant to illustrate the problem of overpopulation, but he wasn’t being entirely serious with the specifics of his prediction; the math works out, but the conclusion is tongue-in-cheek.
It turned out Von Foerster had a lot in common with fellow scientist Disco Stu of the Can’t Stop the Learnin’ Disco Academies:
Ironically, 1960–1963 was the peak of global growth rates. Von Foerster’s (perhaps sardonic) solution was a control mechanism for population—a “peoplo-stat” where governments would carefully monitor and control the rate of people being born. But thankfully, we didn’t need eugenics-lite to solve the problem—like the best problems, it solved itself.
The "population bomb" is a dud
Credit: macrotrends.netThe bottom line on Doomsday 2026
November 13, 2026, will come and go, and chances are very good that you will not starve to death, get hit by an asteroid, or suddenly be crushed under the weight of all these damn people (unless you’re on a subway at rush hour).
As for overpopulation: The problem isn't that there are too many of us, but too few. We don’t really know what it will mean for the worldwide rate of reproduction to go negative, but it’s likely to mean a lot of 90-year-olds hobbling around and everyone younger trying to figure out how to care for them. But, like the best problems, it’s far enough in the future that someone else will have to deal with it.
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