President Donald Trump launched a smash-and-grab raid on Venezuela over the weekend, capturing its president, and has made further threats against Colombia, Mexico, Greenland and others.
But the war in Ukraine, for which Trump’s White House is leading peace talks, could be the latest casualty of his new aggressive security strategy.
From Russia’s fortunes to Ukrainian supplies, here’s how Trump’s new approach to world politics could reshape the conflict.
Russia is emboldened – and the US is distracted
Orysia Lutsevych, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, said that the Venezuela attack could be used as a pretext for Vladimir Putin to “double down on his aggression in Ukraine and efforts to destabilise other countries in the region like Moldova, Armenia, Georgia”, as well as to “double down on its grey zone operations against Ukraine’s European allies”.
Ed Arnold, senior research fellow for European Security at the Royal United Services Institute, added that the situation in Venezuela would distract the White House from the war in Ukraine – giving Putin freer reign.
Arnold said that Trump would not be focused on a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing – a group of countries supporting Ukraine, including the UK – in Paris on Tuesday, where his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner will represent the US.
“The concentration is not on Ukraine, and that is beneficial for Putin,” he said.
Ukraine is seeing its resources stretched thin by the ongoing conflict (Photo: Serhii Mykhalchuk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)Hilde Vautmans, a Belgian centrist MEP, said that “Europe needs to step up in a new world where the strong act decisively regardless of international law”, and that if it fails, countries like Russia could feel emboldened to act similarly.
“Let’s be honest, Europe finds itself torn between confronting its principal security provider and preserving the rules-based order that legitimises its stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” she said.
One EU diplomat said he was taken aback by the situation in Venezuela. “This is against everything we believe in,” he told The i Paper. “It is a step back into a ‘might is right’ world, where global rules and norms no longer exist.”
Nato chief Mark Rutte warned in December that Russia could attack Nato within five years, and the head of the British Army has said that the UK must be ready to fight or deter a war by 2027, as threats converge from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
Ukrainian soldiers in eastern Ukraine (Photo: Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty)Marina Miron, a researcher at the War Studies department at King’s College London, said the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan President, “sets a precedent” – but that it didn’t mean Putin would decide to launch a similar attack on Ukraine.
“I don’t think that the Russians lack the capability to find [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky and to kill him. They have not done so because that would be unfavorable for the entire military situation, because removing Zelensky would most likely make him much more popular,” she said.
Miron also said that she did not believe Russia would feel emboldened to attack Nato by recent events, because it could not guarantee the US would not respond.
Ukraine loses support
If the US becomes embroiled in a long-term engagement in Venezuela or elsewhere, Trump may also cut off crucial supplies and assistance to Ukraine, Arnold said.
Trump abruptly announced a freeze on military aid to Ukraine last March, after a public row with Zelensky in the Oval Office, before reinstating it shortly afterwards.
“All that Trump has actually done is taken Maduro, he hasn’t taken the regime. If you go back to the ousting of Saddam Hussein in 2003 as an example, what comes after is far more difficult,” Arnold said.
“The longer Putin stalls, the more chance for difficulties within Venezuela, which again takes up more time and effort politically from the US and also militarily,” he added.
Arnold said that Trump was “reluctantly” supplying weaponry and intelligence to Ukraine – largely as a result of successful lobbying from Europe – and that if European nations pushed back on his threats to seize Greenland, Trump “will be less inclined to help Europeans in supporting Ukraine”.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer with Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and others as he co-chairs a virtual call with members of the Coalition of the Willing (Photo: Toby Melville/PA Wire)Trump’s Greenland threats could also implode Ukraine’s most important ally, the Nato military alliance.
The Greenland discussion “is causing more friction within Nato than Putin was ever able to do“, Arnold said.
“When Putin is aggressive towards Nato allies and towards Ukraine… they come together. But when there’s internal threats, then the opposite happens, where it starts to disintegrate. Putin knows that he can only defeat Nato politically, not militarily – and at the moment, politically, Nato is being challenged significantly.”
Russia loses allies – and cash
However, there is an upside for Ukraine, because the removal of Maduro marks the downfall of a key Russian ally.
The US’s actions “weaken the autocratic coalition that was backing Putin by voting with Russia at the UN”, Lutsevych said.
“It also shows that regimes cannot rely on Russia for security: Russian air defences, intelligence and Wagner security group advice could not protect Maduro or his family – or inflict serious damage on US forces,” she said.
Lutsevych added: “That is a blow to Russia’s prestige in the non-Western world and will weaken its leverage.”
Vladimir Putin has lost a close ally after a US military operation captured Nicolás Maduro (Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool via Reuters)Lutsevych also said that the Venezuela attack could hit the Kremlin in the pocket.
“With time, US investments unlocking Venezuela’s oil could be a positive for Ukraine, weaking the Russian war budget with lower oil prices – and altering Kremlin calculations as to how long it can continue its war,” she said.
Oil is a lifeline for the Russian economy and a key funder of the war in Ukraine, with fossil fuel exports bringing in €489 (£429) million per day in November.
Miron said that what is happening in Venezuela is a net “geopolitical loss” to Russia, with Russia’s failure to protect Maduro a “huge failure”.
Russia is also now facing potential attacks on another ally – Iran – which Trump has hinted at further airstrikes on, Miron said.
“That is a much more pressing issue. In 2024 it was the end of their ally Assad [in Syria], in 2026 it’s the end of Maduro.”
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