The projections around Tucker’s free-agent contract have been all over the place. His free agency may be a referendum not on his talents, but on how much best available is worth when MVP candidates are no longer hitting the market.
It’s January, and the best available player of MLB’s offseason remains unsigned.
The longer Kyle Tucker lingers as the belle of the winter ball, the more obvious the chasm becomes between the former Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs outfielder and his recent forebears.
Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto – headliners of the previous three free agent classes – all signed deals with average annual values north of $40 million by mid-December.
Astute prognosticators think he’ll get close to that threshold on a deal stretching 10 to 12 years, but the extended timeline tends to accompany industry consternation and lower contract guarantees.
Everyone understands that Tucker, the soon-to-be 29-year-old outfielder, is not Judge or Soto or Ohtani. Less clear? The value of the four-time All-Star with obvious but not generational impact potential.
After that run of record-shattering bidding wars, Tucker’s free agency may be a referendum not on his talents, but on how much best available is worth when MVP candidates are no longer hitting the market.
More From Opta Analyst
NFLWho Were the Biggest Overachievers and Underachievers of the 2025 NFL Season?
3 hours ago Taylor Bechtold NFLWho Has the Most Sacks in an NFL Season?
22 hours ago David Segar NFLNFL Predictions: Picks, Probabilities and Insights for Every Game in Week 18
2 days ago Opta AnalystThe pitch for Tucker isn’t difficult. He’s a consistent all-around hitter who would represent an upgrade when plugged into any lineup as a corner outfielder.
He managed a 131 raw value+, which measures discipline, contact and slug in one metric with 100 being the league average, in 2025 even as he played through injury for much of the second half. That followed an injury-shortened 2024 that showed him at the peak of his powers, when he notched a 166 RV+.
And it’s a sturdy foundation. His 122 discipline+ in 2025 was a top-10 mark in the sport. He combines that with above-average contact to keep his strikeout and walk numbers in a neck-and-neck race.
Despite unremarkable speed, he has purloined 105 bases since 2021 to go with 134 homers – a top 25 player in both categories.
Tucker’s .878 OPS over that span ranks 11th among all hitters with at least 1,500 plate appearances. That’s virtually tied with Corey Seager and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who make for interesting financial signposts.
Seager boasted huge offensive numbers while playing shortstop, but with significant durability questions, and landed a 10-year, $325 million deal in free agency ahead of his age-28 season. Guerrero Jr. was set to give Tucker competition this winter, but instead the Toronto Blue Jays made a 14-year, $500 million commitment to their 26-year-old first baseman at the start of their pennant-winning season.
You could argue Seager is a great comp for what Tucker should get, and you could argue that he should make more than Guerrero on an annual basis, just for fewer years. So the logic of production would probably have Tucker getting something like an inflation-adjusted Seager deal, but the logic of market negotiation says he’ll be looking to beat Guerrero in average annual value.
Projections by experts at FanGraphs, ESPN and MLB Trade Rumors envision that scenario, with Tucker topping Guerrero Jr.’s $35.7 million AAV for a total around $400 million.
That first digit might prove important, if only for perception. When ESPN asked executives if Tucker would land a $400 million guarantee, the majority voted no. Some even suspected he would take a short-term deal with an opt-out.
You can always find an executive to publicly doubt a player’s value, but this feels like a case with some real dissonance.
Comps and projected production over time do set the baseline for a player’s market, but scarcity starts bidding wars.
Baseball’s hot stove season has been spoiled for scarce resources lately. The best power hitter since Barry Bonds; an elite hitter in his mid-20s; the one-of-one freak show that is Ohtani. But even beyond that triumvirate, the early 2020s saw an influx of accomplished players reach free agency at their first opportunity, a surge that may quickly subside.
We looked at all hitters who logged two or more seasons worth at least a 5.0 FanGraphs WAR through age 28, and grouped them by their first possible year of free agency, which we’re going to call natural free agency. Since 1995, only 29% of these desirable players have hit the market at their earliest opportunity.
The majority of the young stars in this club sign extensions, even if they don’t soar to Guerrero levels of the financial stratosphere. They are simply too valuable for teams to stomach losing them in their prime. Even those who appear destined for the market often find new long-term homes via trade without hitting free agency. Think Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor in recent years, or Scott Rolen and Mike Piazza a generation before.
But lately, that has been less true. From 2021 through 2025, 57% of these players made it to natural free agency. That’s eight out of a possible 14. Judge, Ohtani and Soto were joined by Seager, Trea Turner, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Matt Chapman.
You can reason away at the individual examples, but the overall trend is unusual and unlikely to continue.
The four natural free agents of 2026 who cleared our bar of star-level seasons were Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Yordan Alvarez and Austin Riley, all of whom are playing on extensions. Six players for future cycles have already cleared it, and only two catchers (Adley Rutschman and William Contreras) have not signed extensions. Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr. and Cal Raleigh won’t be hitting the market in 2028.
The next best shot at a young impact bat may not arrive until 2029, when Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson will have exhausted his team control (if he, too, doesn’t ink an extension). Ronald Acuna Jr.’s deal will the Atlanta Braves is also set to expire before that season, but he’ll be entering his age-31 season. If Contreras and Rutschman manage to hold their appeal despite donning the tools of ignorance, they’ll hit the market ahead of the 2028 season.
Which brings us back to Tucker. The lanky, disciplined slugger wouldn’t actually qualify for our study above. Somehow, he has never quite hit the 5-WAR mark in an individual season (per the FanGraphs model we’re using), even though he has been a 4-WAR player in four straight seasons, and would have blown past the mark in 2024 without the injury.
Still, that’s eyebrow-raising in its own way. The largest free-agent deal on record for a hitter without a 5-WAR season is Willy Adames’ $182 million pact with the San Francisco Giants, with Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber, bat-only signees from this cycle, close behind. Tucker is likely to double that. You can understand why Alex Bregman, Tucker’s former Houston teammate who has reached higher high points, might have seen some appeal to re-entering this market even with an extra year of age.
Tucker, Bregman and even Bo Bichette, who is coming off a stellar 135 RV+ season with the bat, even if he needs to move off shortstop, can sell themselves alongside this scarcity. But teams might balk at prices that seem more tied to the no-doubt MVP candidates of recent cycles than the actual track records on the market.
With labor strife on the horizon, long-term deals are probably in the players’ best interests this time. So it may take longer than usual, but someone always needs a bat to put them over the top, to open their competitive window, to soothe an uneasy fan base.
Someone always needs a splash. This year, and possibly for the foreseeable future, Tucker is the best available. Emphasis on available.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
MLB Free Agency: How Much is Kyle Tucker Worth? Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about mlb free agency how much is kyle tucker worth was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( MLB Free Agency: How Much is Kyle Tucker Worth? )
Also on site :