The Ole Miss Rebels enter college football’s Final Four as the decided underdog, which quite likely is the way they prefer it. It has served them well to date.
Undefeated Indiana, which slobber-knocked Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl ranks as the solid favorite at +130 entering the semifinal games. That means that if you wager $100 on Indiana to win it all, you would win $130 if the Hoosiers actually do it.
Rick ClevelandIf you watched Indiana’s dismantling of Alabama, you probably get it. Hard as it was to fathom Indiana (historically the worst team in Division I football) hammering proud Bama, seeing was believing. Indiana treated Alabama like Alabama treats Louisiana-Monroe.
Vegas oddsmakers like Miami next best. The money line on the Ole Miss’s semifinal foe is +315. Wager $100 and win $315 if the Hurricanes prevail. Miami, the only two-loss team remaining, probably ranks as the second betting choice because of the way the Hurricanes handled Ohio State (24-14) in the semifinals.
Next on the oddsmakers’ list is Oregon at +320. And then bringing up the rear and decidedly so at +550 is Ole Miss, despite its impressive 39-34 victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. You can bet $100 on Ole Miss today and earn $550 if they beat Miami and then the Indiana-Oregon winner in the national championship game.
Why are the Rebels so decidedly the underdog? Well, for one thing, they started the season that way.
Texas, Georgia and Ohio State were the preseason favorites. Penn State, Alabama, LSU, Clemson and Notre Dame all ranked far ahead of the Rebels.
And then there’s the coaching chaos that happened just before the playoffs began. Pete Golding is two games into his head coaching career and has a staff that is largely spending preparation time at two different schools.
I have no other explanation for why the odds are so stacked against the Rebels. Ole Miss statistically dominated Georgia much more than the final score indicates. Take away Georgia’s second quarter scoop-and-score touchdown – the game’s only turnover – and Ole Miss wins much more comfortably.
Ole Miss isn’t playing like a team with coaching issues. If anything, Lane Kiffin’s abandoning a team beginning a playoff run has seemed to invigorate the Rebels, drawn them even closer together and made them even more determined.
Mississippi wide receiver Harrison Wallace III (2) celebrates a touchdown in the second half of the Sugar Bowl NCAA college football playoff quarterfinal game against Georgia in New Orleans, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026. Credit: AP Photo/Mathew HintonWide receiver Harrison Wallace III talked about that in a press conference Sunday afternoon. He said the coaching changes have had little impact “because everybody has bought in to go win a national championship.”
“It was crazy for everybody,” Wallace said. “But at the same time, the players and coaches did a great job of keeping everybody together. … I just feel like we did a good job of communicating with each other.”
The biggest noticeable change – other than a coach who deflects attention to his players rather than attracting it to himself – is that the new coach is now on the field instead of the press box. Golding, when he was the defensive coordinator, coached from above. As a head coach, he is on the sideline. That turns out to be a plus, says standout defensive tackle Will Echoles, such a force in the Sugar Bowl.
“I think having PG (Golding) on the field now is better,” Echoles said Sunday. “It’s different when they are sending stuff down through the headphones. It’s better when he can get us together on the field like he did in the second quarter against Georgia. He brought the whole defense together and told us what we needed to do better to get some stops.”
Mississippi head coach Pete Golding picks up the Sugar Bowl trophy after defeating Georgia in the Sugar Bowl NCAA college football playoff quarterfinal game, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026, in New Orleans. Credit: AP Photo/Matthew Hinton HintonWhatever Golding said worked. There also seems to have been no problem at all with Charlie Weiss Jr. in total command of the Ole Miss offense and without Kiffin looking over his shoulder. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and his teammates have not missed a beat. If anything, they’ve been sharper in the two playoff games.
For his part, Golding says commentators make far too much of the coaching flux and how it affects the Rebels. He loves this team and seems to love its chances.
“I just think these guys show up every day and are excited to go to work and prepare and get better,” Golding said. “… and I think that’s pretty unique. And I think the other thing for them is they don’t flinch. There’s a grit and a toughness about this group … there’s no panic.”
The oddsmakers were wrong about Ole Miss before the season started. They were wrong about them before the Sugar Bowl. They absolutely could be wrong now. As Golding loves to say and says often, “Let’s spot the ball.”
Yes, let’s find out.
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