Around the AFC
Patriots, Jaguars vying for top seed. The Broncos received a massive belated Christmas gift on Monday courtesy of Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh, who relinquished all gamesmanship and said point-blank that Los Angeles would rest star quarterback Justin Herbert. Denver would have to absolutely implode to lose Sunday’s matchup. In such an event, though, New England (13-3) and Jacksonville (12-4) would be set up to seize that vaunted No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots are playing a 7-9 Dolphins team that’s been mathematically eliminated; the Jaguars face 3-13 Tennessee, one of the worst teams in the NFL. Denver can’t afford to get too cute here.
Fernando-mania. The Raiders are the NFL’s hottest current mess. They’ve lost 10 straight. The Pete Carroll experiment seems all but destined to end after one unceremonious year. 48-year-old minority owner Tom Brady was captured by TMZ getting a little close with 25-year-old influencer Alix Earle on New Year’s Eve. Las Vegas continues to be in the news for plenty of reasons beyond the actual on-field product. The good news? Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is only solidifying his case as a legitimate No. 1 pick, with a 14-of-16 line for 192 yards and three touchdowns in a drubbing of Alabama at the Rose Bowl on Thursday. Raiders general manager John Spytek has to be licking his chops.
Rivers done, again. The great season-saving Philip Rivers Experiment is over, as the 44-year-old will now step back into retirement after three losses in Indianapolis. What a valiant effort it was, though: Rivers has a higher QBR (39.3) in three starts in 2025 than the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa or the Raiders’ Geno Smith have this season. The Colts announced rookie QB Riley Leonard will start in Week 18, with Indianapolis (8-8) removed from playoff contention. Rivers, though, expressed nothing but gratitude for the opportunity.
“I got three bonus games that I never saw coming,” Rivers told reporters, “and couldn’t be more thankful that I got an opportunity.”
Around the NFC
Teach me how to Purdy. It’s time to officially crown San Francisco as serious NFC contenders. The 49ers were a distant afterthought in their own division a couple months back, floating at 6-4 behind Seattle and the Rams. Suddenly, the Niners have ripped off six wins in a row with the return of starting quarterback Brock Purdy, who’s playing with rarely-before-seen levels of confidence. Case in point: hitting a nasty Dougie after a touchdown against the Bears last Sunday in a 24-of-33, 303-yard, five-total-TD performance. As 49ers tight end George Kittle has said, heaven “forbid a white guy has a little bit of motion.”
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Can Stafford seize an MVP? The race for the league’s top award is still wide-open entering Week 18. Support for the Rams’ Matthew Stafford, long the season favorite, has faltered significantly after he threw three interceptions in Monday’s 27-24 loss to the Falcons. The stats don’t lie, though: Stafford’s 42 touchdown passes are nine more than any other NFL quarterback entering the final regular-season game of the year. If Stafford gets back on track against the 3-13 Cardinals Sunday, consider the Most Valuable Player discussion wrapped up.
Game of the Week
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
It’s a Sunday Night doozy. Lamar Jackson vs. Aaron Rodgers for sole possession of an AFC North title — and a playoff berth. Loser’s bounced out of the bracket entirely. Jackson confirmed this week he’ll play after missing last Saturday’s win with a back contusion, in what’s been an overall-frustrating year for the MVP due to injuries and roster instability.
There could be major long-term ramifications on the line for both organizations in Pittsburgh on Sunday. A Ravens loss could bring an end of an era to the John Harbaugh-Jackson partnership in Baltimore, with trade rumors swirling around Jackson for the better part of a strange season. A Steelers loss could bring an end to the Mike Tomlin era in Pittsburgh, with rampant speculation (okay, there’s speculation literally every year) around Tomlin’s job security. Sunday should, in general, bring a unique new chapter in a historic NFL rivalry.
Lock of the Week
Tennessee at Jacksonville
There aren’t a ton of playoff teams with a ton left to play for in Week 18. The Jaguars are one of them. And they just so happen to be facing the 3-13 Titans. Tennessee’s been playing much-improved offensive ball across the last month, as rookie Cam Ward has six touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three starts. Still, the Jaguars should be motivated to put this one to bed early to preserve a shot at the one-seed and get their starters some second-half rest.
Jaguars 31, Titans 20
Upset of the Week
Washington at Philadelphia
Don’t look now, but the reigning champs should be squarely back in the thick of the Super Bowl discussion. Philadelphia’s offense is still a sludge. But Vic Fangio’s defense is playing as well as any unit in the league: the Eagles have surrendered just 14.5 points a game across their last eight weeks.
That being said, this could be a classic end-of-year stunner. Philadelphia’s resting quarterback Jalen Hurts against the Commanders, despite a shot at the No. 2 seed if they’d beat Washington. That’d signal the Eagles will sit other key starters; Washington’s suffered through a brutal season with Jayden Daniels banged up, but backup Marcus Mariota has done some solid work at times. This could be an ugly, meaningless upset.
Commanders 16, Eagles 13
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