Chargers (11-5) at Broncos (13-3)
When: 2:25 p.m. Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
TV/radio: CBS, 850 AM/94.1 FM
Broncos-Chargers series: Denver’s up big historically here and down big in the respective Sean Payton-Jim Harbaugh eras. The Broncos are 72-58-1 all-time against Los Angeles, but have now dropped three straight since Harbaugh took charge of the Bolts in 2024. The most recent came at SoFi Stadium in September, when Denver let a 20-13 late-fourth-quarter lead slip away behind a furious charge by Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert.
In the spotlight: Can Bo Nix and Sean Payton slay the zone?
In the midst of yet another slow offensive start in a season full of them on Christmas, Sean Payton eventually went to both Bo Nix and quarterbacks coach Davis Webb and made one point expressively clear: Hey, there’s some good runs here.
Second-year quarterback Nix has used his legs as a weapon plenty in 2025, entering the Broncos’ final regular-season game in Week 18 with 75 carries for 307 yards and five touchdowns. A handful of those, however, have been short-yardage sneaks. Another handful have been designed quarterback draws or read-options. Nix has scrambled to throw much more in 2025 than in his rookie season; there’s a reason he’s tied for the NFL lead in pass attempts (589) with one game left to play.
Heeding Payton’s words, though, Nix broke off scrambles of 14, nine and eight yards from the second quarter on, with Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo throwing heavy doses of two-safety “shell” zone coverage against the Broncos to prevent Denver from beating them big. It wasn’t pretty. Nix finished 26-of-38 for 182 yards. But it was enough to win.
“They want to make you run the football, and that’s what the zones and the two-high-shells invite,” Nix said Wednesday. “And so it’s just all about executing whatever the defense gives you.
“I wish like crazy a team would just play us man-to-man the whole game,” Nix continued. “It would make my job a lot easier.”
Teams have rarely done that against these Broncos in 2025, as there’s a fairly clear blueprint to slowing a Denver offense that lacks major run-game juice without J.K. Dobbins. Nix has seen the third-highest rate of zone coverage of any qualified NFL quarterback this season, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
That sets up a collision course with Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter in Week 18, who’s trotted out zone units at the fifth-highest rate of any NFL defense this year.
Los Angeles, too, often plays with four defensive backs, in a scheme that’s become one of the stingiest pass defenses in football. The Chargers are set to play this week without star safety Derwin James, too. All signs point to yet another gameplan contingent on forcing Nix and Payton to beat a defense with a flurry of quick-hit underneath routes.
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And Payton will no doubt be paying attention to the Texans’ success against the Chargers in a 20-16 win last weekend, as Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud took a buzzsaw to a two-safety look in the first quarter with a 43-yard touchdown bomb to Jaylin Noel.
“Good calls by Houston,” Payton said Monday, referencing a couple of explosive first-quarter touchdowns from Stroud. “I don’t know that there were any great adjustments made. I think they dropped coverage on one, and then there was a pretty good design on the other.”
A once-tantalizing Week 18 matchup has now become utterly anticlimactic, with the Chargers set to rest star quarterback Justin Herbert, James and a host of other key starters. But Denver still has a No. 1 seed hanging in the balance Sunday. And if the Broncos elect to play dink-and-dunk for four quarters, they’ll leave themselves with a slim margin of error against a Chargers defense with the third-most interceptions in the NFL — and that’s beaten Payton and Nix three straight times dating back to 2024.
“They really keep a lid on their coverage, and force you to be patient,” Payton said. “We haven’t played well or coached well in the three games prior, and we have to improve on that.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: The general way to beat this Chargers’ run defense is on plays outside the tackles, where Los Angeles has allowed the ninth-highest yards per play (5.1) in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. The issue: these Broncos have shown little ability to do that across the last month-plus. Rookie RJ Harvey is still averaging just 3.4 yards per carry when bouncing runs outside this year, and is now at just 3.7 YPC in general since J.K. Dobbins went down in early November. Jaleel McLaughlin earned more looks on Christmas and responded with a 40-yard performance on seven carries; this could be another showcase for him. Slight edge: Chargers
When Broncos pass: In the last month, this Los Angeles secondary has picked off the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts four times, made the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes look eminently mortal in a 16-13 win in December, and intercepted CJ Stroud twice last Saturday. The key variable here is rest. If Los Angeles elects to sit players like safety Derwin James or starting cornerbacks Donte Jackson and Tarheeb Still, that’d open the field nicely for Bo Nix and company. Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is a prime head-coaching candidate for a reason, though, and held Nix to just 153 passing yards in Los Angeles’s September win. Edge: Chargers
When Chargers run: Rookie Omarion Hampton has been back in the fold in December after a two-month injury absence, and ran hard against the Broncos back in September, totaling 129 yards from scrimmage in that Los Angeles win. RB2 Kimani Vidal is questionable, though, and Los Angeles could elect to sit some members of an already-banged-up offensive line. The Broncos’ interior defensive line is playing as well as it has all season against the run, meanwhile. Slight edge: Broncos
When Chargers pass: Trey Lance is getting thrown into a rather adverse situation in Denver, with starting tackle Joe Alt ruled out for the year and Lance potentially without the benefit of top targets like Keenan Allen. This is no gimme, as Lance was the No. 3 overall pick in 2021 for a reason, and the Broncos will likely turn again to cage-rush principles to keep Lance from beating them with his legs. But Lance’s limited body of work in the NFL — a 79.9 passer rating over 156 pass attempts — doesn’t suggest a major threat. Edge: Broncos
Special teams: Payton, like the rest of the world, was shocked when Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker missed a key extra-point try late in the Chargers’ loss last week to Houston. That doesn’t change with one missed chip-shot, as Dicker was named a Pro Bowler in 2025 for converting 37 of his 40 field-goal tries entering Week 18. The Chargers rank in the bottom half of the NFL in combined punt and kick-return yardage, though, where the Broncos gain major ground. Edge: Even
Coaching: Very few opponents across the NFL have been able to hold a candle to the Broncos’ outfit in this category this season. But Harbaugh’s track record against Payton can’t be denied: now 6-1 all-time in NFL games against the Broncos’ head coach dating back to their respective days in San Francisco and New Orleans. In a matchup with two of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL and some proven offensive minds on both sides of the ball, that statistic holds weight. Slight edge: Chargers
Tale of the tape
Broncos Chargers Total offense 349.1 (9th) 341.1 (12th) Rush offense 118.9 (19th) 122.1 (12th) Pass offense 230.2 (9th) 219.0 (15th) Points per game 23.9 (14th) 22.8 (T-16th) Total defense 282.1 (3rd) 288.1 (4th) Run defense 89.7 (2nd) 104.7 (9th) Pass defense 192.4 (8th) 183.4 (6th) Points allowed 19.3 (4th) 20.1 (7th)By the numbers
225: The number of snaps this season that the Chargers’ defense has played in dime packages (four defensive backs), the third-highest mark in the NFL.
74.8: Trey Lance’s passer rating across four career NFL starts.
53.4: Opposing quarterbacks’ passer rating when targeting Chargers safety Derwin James as the nearest defender in coverage.
17: The number of unique offensive-line combinations the Chargers have deployed this season, tied for the most in the NFL.
81.4%: The rate that Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has seen zone coverage in 2025, the third-highest mark among qualified NFL quarterbacks, according to Next Gen Stats.
80.9%: The rate that the Chargers have played zone coverage in 2025, tied for the fifth-highest mark among all NFL defenses.
X-factors
Broncos: OLB Jonah Elliss. With starting edge rusher Nik Bonitto a bit dinged up and the Chargers resting their starters, Elliss should get plenty of run on Sunday. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has employed heavy cage-rush principles against a variety of scrambling quarterbacks this season, and Elliss has shown an ability to run down QBs off the line of scrimmage in rotational snaps in 2025. He’ll be a key factor in containing Lance.
Chargers: Like, everyone. Harbaugh played coy Monday when asked specifics on what other starters would rest, but made clear that some would. That leaves a rather interesting challenge for the Broncos, who have little way to prepare for the exact combination of units that’ll be on the field Sunday. Maybe Keenan Allen plays. Maybe he doesn’t. Maybe Derwin James plays. Maybe he doesn’t. The world will find out.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 38, Chargers 0
If it was good enough for Week 18 last year, it’s good enough for Week 18 this year. The Broncos need a win to wrap up the No. 1 seed. The Chargers are sitting likely several key players. A couple of times this year, Sean Payton’s played just to ensure a win. This week, the bet here is he tries to dial up a feel-good game for Bo Nix and the Broncos offense heading into a bye week. What does it matter once Denver’s postseason play actually starts? Probably not much.
Luca Evans, Broncos writer: Broncos 21, Chargers 13
This will be another one-score game, because of course it will. Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is too good to let Sean Payton and Bo Nix just tee off on Sunday, and here’s betting Los Angeles takes a similar approach to Kansas City and tries to keep the lid on the Broncos’ passing game. The Chargers just have little offensive juice without Herbert, though, and this one should really never be in doubt.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 34, Chargers 12
Sean Payton knows his team needs momentum going into the playoffs as it clinches the AFC’s top seed. He will not be a turtle on offense. More like a snap dragon. Remember what the Broncos did to the JV Chiefs in the season finale a year ago? This should be a repeat, including two takeaways by the suddenly-maligned defense.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 23, Chargers 10
The Chargers’ offensive line is a mess, and Vance Joseph’s defense won’t miss. Los Angeles gave up five sacks to the Texans, four to the Chiefs and seven to the Eagles — that’s 16 takedowns over the last four games. The Bolts come into the weekend 28th in the league in sack percentage allowed, per SumerSports.com. The road to Super Bowl LX goes through Empower Field.
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