The sample size is expanding. In a few weeks, the College Football Playoff might do the same.
Through two seasons of the 12-team format, teams receiving an opening-round bye are 1-7 in the quarterfinals, with Indiana (over Alabama) as the lone victor following a three-and-a-half week break.
Billed as a reward for conference winners in 2024 and then, after a format tweak, for the highest-ranked teams in 2025, the bye is clearly a competitive disadvantage that must be eliminated. The long layoff leaves teams sluggish and rusty, especially on offense, when facing opponents that played 10 days earlier in the opening round.
But with a 12-team event, byes are unavoidable.
The only solution? CFP expansion, which is vastly more complicated than it should be.
CFP executives are facing a Jan. 23 deadline to determine whether to expand in time for the 2026 season. Thankfully, too many logistical hurdles exist to implement Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti’s proposal for a 24-team field, but a 16-team version has received serious consideration.
It seemingly would solve the bye problem with No. 1 playing No. 16 in the first round, No. 2 facing No. 15 and so on. Except to assume the obvious would be giving the power conference commissioners far too much credit for prioritizing the best option for the sport writ large.
Don’t be surprised if they complicate the situation by implementing a version of the NCAA Tournament’s First Four or creating inane double byes for the top seeds.
The calendar is an impediment to expansion, as well, because a 16-team field would necessitate more games regardless of the adopted format. And there isn’t much space available on the crowded December calendar if the CFP hopes to avoid head-to-head broadcasts against the NFL.
Many believe the best path forward is to move the start of the CFP up one week, to what is now the Saturday of Army-Navy and the Heisman Trophy presentation. But that could result in teams playing conference championship games and plunging straight into the CFP.
The second flaw within the existing format is the absence of home-field advantage for teams that have earned the highest seeds. Indiana went 13-0, won the Big Ten championship and was awarded the No. 1 seed but won’t play a CFP game within 500 miles of campus.
Again, there’s an easy solution made deeply complicated by the sport’s tradition: If the quarterfinal games are on campus, leaving only the semifinals and championship for neutral sites, all six major bowls (Rose, Sugar, Cotton, Orange, Peach and Fiesta) could not host CFP games each season.
Until the commissioners are willing to untether the postseason from the major bowls and eliminate conference championship games, the CFP will continue as a deeply flawed event.
The good news coming out of the quarterfinal round is that expanding to a 16-team field (to eliminate byes) seems more clear and obvious than ever.
The bad news? Taking that seemingly simple step is ridiculously complicated in a sport with zero leadership and conference commissioners out to protect their territory above all.
Here’s a look at winners and losers from the CFP quarterfinal round and Bowl Season …
Winner: Mayhem. With No. 5 Oregon, No. 6 Mississippi and No. 10 Miami joining No. 1 Indiana in the semifinals, the College Football Playoff (finally) is beginning to resemble the NCAA Tournament with its gloriously unpredictable madness.
Loser: Blue bloods. The semifinal round will unfold without Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, LSU, Georgia and Clemson. In fact, none of the 25 winningest programs in college football history are still standing. For that, you can thank (or blame) NIL, revenue sharing and the 12-team field.
Winner: Indiana coach Curt Cignetti. With 14 wins, zero losses, the No. 1 seed and a spot in the semifinals — so much of the success has been powered by players who followed him from James Madison — Cignetti is two victories away from authoring one of the greatest coaching performances in American sports.
Loser: The SEC. After dominating the regular season with its depth and success in non-conference matchups, the SEC has struggled in the postseason with a 2-6 record in games against other leagues. Unless Mississippi beats Miami, the SEC won’t be represented in the championship for the third consecutive year.
Winner: The Big Ten. Meanwhile, the Big Ten is 9-4 in the postseason and guaranteed to place a team in the championship game (the Oregon-Indiana winner) for the third consecutive year. Because of its structural advantages, the conference should continue thriving in the era of revenue sharing and NIL.
Loser: LSU. In the latest installment of their theatre of the absurd, the Tigers agreed to pay whatever bonuses new coach Lane Kiffin would have earned had he remained at Mississippi. His updated total following the Rebels’ quarterfinal victory: $500,000. It’s example 1,629 of college football’s spending problem.
Winner: Nick Saban coaching tree. Cignetti, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Miami’s Mario Cristobal and Mississippi’s Pete Golding have one thing in common: They all worked for Saban during his tenure at Alabama.
Loser: USC. The season ended in a manner that perfectly reflects the Lincoln Riley era: TCU scored the winning touchdown on a third-and-20 checkdown pass in which the Trojans missed four tackles as running back Jeremy Payne tip-toed his way down the left sideline. The Alamo Bowl loss was the fourth defeat of the season for USC. And. So. It. Goes.
Winner: The ACC. Mocked and humiliated after its flawed tiebreaker allowed five-loss Duke to play for, and win, the conference championship — only to be shunned by the CFP selection committee in favor of James Madison — the conference gained a measure of redemption with the Hurricanes’ victories over the SEC (Texas A&M) and Big Ten (Ohio State). Overall, the ACC is 6-4 in the postseason with two wins over the SEC. Not bad at all.
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Winner: Mississippi coach Pete Golding. Elevated to the permanent position after Kiffin fled for Baton Rouge, Golding is rapidly turning into the football version of Steve Fisher, who took over the Michigan basketball program in March 1989 — after Bill Frieder accepted the ASU job — and led the Wolverines to the NCAA title.
Loser: The Mountain West. The final postseason for the conference as currently constructed was a downer from the first half of Boise State’s blowout defeat to Washington (in the LA Bowl) onward. Although the 2-5 record was based primarily on losses by schools that won’t compete in the conference next season, schools that won’t compete in the conference next season constituted the majority of the bowl-eligible teams
Winner: Group of Five. Roasted by fans and media members alike as not worthy of CFP inclusion after the opening-round flameouts by Tulane and James Madison, the G5’s narrative improved markedly in the quarterfinals when Texas Tech and Alabama flamed out, as well. In fact, the Dukes scored 34 more points against Oregon than did Texas Tech.
Loser: BYU. So much for any lingering complaints that the Cougars were unfairly excluded from the CFP after their 11-2 season and solid resume. If Texas Tech didn’t belong, then BYU, which was walloped twice by the Red Raiders, certainly had no business in the 12-team field. The selection committee got that decision right.
Winner: Pop-Tarts Bowl. From the post-game mascot sacrifice to the toaster-as-trophy, the bowl offers a master class in brand promotion. The CFP itself could stand a little help from the folks behind the event’s genius marketing strategy.
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