The Spurs beat the Thunder three times in two weeks. What can other teams in the NBA take away from their triumphs?
There’s a scene in Rocky IV where Rocky finally breaks through against the seemingly invincible Ivan Drago and his trainer for the fight, Duke, points out that Drago is hurt, proving he’s not a machine, he’s a man.
The NBA has had a similar moment over the past few weeks. The Oklahoma City Thunder seemed like they were playing in a different league to start the year, racing to a 24-1 start and very rarely even being challenged.
But that’s been followed up by a 4-4 stretch that included three losses to the San Antonio Spurs. The Thunder aren’t a machine; they’re a team. And teams can be beaten.
When a team as good as the Thunder loses three times in a row to the same opponent, every other team in the league goes running to the game film in search of the ways the Spurs were able to fluster them more than any other team.
There are dangers in ascribing too much value to such a small sample. Sometimes, the results can be waved away by a poor shooting stretch or a rash of injuries. Or sometimes one team just happens to play some of its best games against another opponent.
The 2010-11 Chicago Bulls beat the Miami Heat in all three of their regular season matchups, then blew them out in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals. It looked like the Bulls just had the Heat’s number. Then the Heat rattled off four straight wins to win the series.
Past performance doesn’t always indicate future results.
But there are still lessons to be taken from individual matchups. Sure, the other teams can’t simply have their 7-foot-4 superhuman wreak havoc on both sides of the floor. They can, however, mimic some of the other things the Spurs did to make life harder on the Thunder.
The Spurs exploited the few weak spots the Thunder have, and other teams would be wise to try and follow suit.
Hold Onto the Ball
The Thunder have one of the best defenses in recent memory, leading the NBA in defensive TRACR by a wide margin, and it bleeds into their offense.
They force their opponents into the most turnovers per game (17.9) and average 24.6 points off turnovers per game, 2.2 more than the next closest team.
Playing the Thunder is like dealing with a small leak. The first turnover is just one play, but then the next one comes, and the one after that. Before you know it, the house is flooded.
The Spurs turned off the faucet.
Every team that plays the Thunder tries to limit turnovers, but head coach Mitch Johnson clearly made it the Spurs’ top priority. The Spurs are normally an average team in terms of limiting turnovers, averaging 14.4 per game (13th in the NBA). But in three games against the Thunder, San Antonio averaged 13.3 turnovers per game, somehow turning it over less against an elite pressure defense.
The Spurs recognized that high-risk passes that can lead to live-ball turnovers aren’t worth it against the Thunder, even if they could potentially lead to an easy basket. They made the simple read more often than not and didn’t try to convert many passes crosscourt.
It’s one thing to stress taking care of the basketball, and another to pass up on opportunities in real time. However, the Spurs were disciplined throughout the three games.
It all starts with the point guard.
De’Aaron Fox has five games this year with one or fewer turnovers. Three of those five were the games against the Thunder. He probably left some assists on the table (he had just three assists in one game and four in another despite averaging 6.0 per game), but his decision-making was excellent.
It didn’t hurt that he exploded for 29 points on Christmas Day, either.
The turnover battle is the first and most important step to winning the easy points battle with the Thunder. It feels like Oklahoma City starts every game with a lead because of how many points it’s able to generate independent of good shooting or quality offense.
We discussed how many turnovers the Thunder get, but they also limit their turnovers on offense. As such, they generate an absurd 9.2 more points off turnovers than their opponents. The second-best team is the Boston Celtics, who generate 3.9 more points off turnovers per game than their opponents.
The Thunder also average 14.5 more points in the paint per game than their opponents and 2.9 more fast break points per game. These are the numbers that allow them to grab wins even when the offense is having a bad night.
The Spurs flipped the script on the Thunder in all three categories. In their three matchups, the Spurs averaged 2.7 more points per game off turnovers, 4.7 more points in the paint and 5.6 more fast break points.
Limiting turnovers and winning the easy points battle is easier said than done, but they’re musts for consistently beating the Thunder.
Stay Out of Rotation
The Thunder are an elite team because of incredible talent, but also because all the pieces on the roster fit together nicely. They are very careful about which players to bring in, and every player in their rotation is capable of making the extra pass.
But most of their players are much better at leveraging an advantage than creating one. This is true of most rosters, of course, but the Thunder particularly have a lot of players who work as connectors but struggle when asked to try and create separation for themselves. This problem was exacerbated by Ajay Mitchell missing two of the three games against the Spurs.
San Antonio decided to guard any pick-and-roll with just two defenders. When Shai Gilgeous-Alexander got an advantage that was impossible to ignore, the Spurs would send an extra defender, but the help behind the play was controlled instead of frantic.
If the Thunder’s role players wanted to take semi-contested 3-pointers, they could. If they wanted to drive against a defender who hadn’t been fully compromised when the defense was still mostly in position, they could do that.
Many times, defenses against the Thunder are left chasing the ball. OKC responds by unselfishly moving the ball around until someone is wide open. Remarkably, the Spurs have found a way to use that unselfishness against the Thunder.
Alex Caruso prefers to make the extra pass to a teammate instead of creating a shot for himself. The Spurs made him and most of the other role players into scorers and not part of an unbeatable offensive machine.
There have been five games this year in which the Thunder’s bench totaled five or fewer assists. Two were against the Spurs.
There’s an obvious tradeoff here, as the Thunder were able to get some easier looks for ball handlers out of the pick-and-roll. There were several possessions where it looked too easy for SGA in the midrange. And the Spurs had to vary their coverage on some plays, because playing the same way every time down against Gilgeous-Alexander is a death sentence.
However, in a lot of instances, the Spurs leaned toward staying at home instead of sending help to shut down the plays. That discipline is something other teams might lean into more often.
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Limiting turnovers, winning the easy points battle and staying out of rotation are all easy enough points for coaches to emphasize. But against the Thunder, none of these are easy to execute. If they were, Oklahoma City would have a lot more losses.
For starters, while all of these strategies can be utilized without Victor Wembanyama, the error bars on each of them are so much wider with him on the floor. Part of the reason the Thunder defense can’t be as aggressive in hunting turnovers is that all five defenders need to be aware of where Wemby (fourth in the NBA in defensive DRIP) is on the court at all times.
If someone gambles and doesn’t create a turnover, it could lead to an easy dunk for Wembanyama behind the defense. And staying out of rotation is so much easier when you have a player who can stay with his man until the last minute but still alter shots at the rim because of his insane length and athleticism.
Ajay Mitchell being healthy should help the Thunder as well, and the elephant in the room so far has been Jalen Williams. He’s averaging career lows in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage coming off a wrist injury that forced him to miss the start of the season.
But Williams has played in just 14 games and will likely get better as the year progresses. He puts tremendous pressure on opposing defenses and is a strong defender (35th in the league in D-DRIP) when he’s at his best.
Despite their recent losses, the Thunder are still heavy favorites to repeat as NBA champions, per the Opta supercomputer. But when a team at the top shows even the smallest crack in the foundation, every other team will inspect it closely.
The Thunder are elite, but the Spurs showed they’re not unbeatable.
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Have the Spurs Provided a Blueprint for Beating the Thunder? Opta Analyst.
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