SYDNEY — Making predictions is a mug’s game. But without a crystal ball, you are always at risk of getting things wrong. Unfortunately, there are always receipts.
So here’s a look at some of my takes missed the mark in 2025 when I tried to predict a year of cricket. Thankfully, some of them were right and because I’m a sucker for punishment, there are some forecasts for 2026 as well.
Here’s what I got right…
England will exit the Champions Trophy at the group stage
Back on New Year’s Day 2025, the first call I made was on how England would fare in this tournament in Pakistan – the team’s first major assignment with Brendon McCullum as coach across all formats. I didn’t have much hope they’d do well and predicted a group-stage exit. But it went even worse than that, with defeats by Australia, Afghanistan and South Africa capped by Jos Buttler resigning as captain.
Shoaib Bashir wouldn’t work in Australia
In January, I made the argument that young off-spinner Shoaib Bashir would be a sitting duck during this winter’s Ashes series. “Is exposing him in a country where visiting spinners, and many who are far more accomplished than him, routinely get butchered really the best ploy?” I asked. Seemingly England came to the same conclusion, failing to pick Bashir for any of the first four Ashes Tests.
Bashir has become a glorified net bowler for England (Photo: PA)Lack of proper Ashes warm-up would come back to haunt England
As early as February, I found out the pre-series plans for Australia – just one warm-up match in Perth before the biggest series of all began. I wrote then that it was a huge risk to take, and could make them “the least-prepared England team ever”. Too bad I didn’t take the hint when it came to predicting the series result.
Surrey wouldn’t win a fourth successive County Championship title
County predictions are always hard but at least I managed to get this one right. Unfortunately, I tipped Essex, not eventual champions Nottinghamshire, to win it instead.
England need to manage Ben Stokes’ fitness by resting him
After the drawn fourth Test against India in Manchester in July, I called on England to make the “huge call” to stand down their captain for the final Test at The Oval because I was worried he would break down ahead of a huge winter in Australia. Unfortunately the damage had already been done as a week later Stokes was ruled out of that Test with a shoulder injury.
England’s bowling attack for Perth
In August, I took it upon myself to try and pick England’s attack for all five Ashes Tests. It wasn’t wise given the danger of injury to so many of the quicks. But I managed to get it spot on for the series opener in Perth, predicting Bashir would be overlooked and a pace quartet of Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse, Jofra Archer and Mark Wood would be unleashed on the Aussies.
…and here’s what I got wrong
Playing in the IPL would ruin Jofra Archer’s chances of being fit for the Ashes
The ideal scenario for the fast bowler would have been to play the start of the county season with Sussex as he built up to his return to Test cricket after four-and-a-half years away. Playing at the IPL didn’t look smart, especially when he had a nightmare start to the tournament with Rajasthan Royals.
Archer has been one of England’s best bowlers in Australia (Photo: PA)But even though his comeback was delayed until the third Test against India at Lord’s, his two Tests in that series meant he was primed to play the first three in Australia before injury struck again before the Boxing Day Test.
England to win the India Test series 3-1
But for a kamikaze collapse in the final Test at The Oval this would have been right. England were 2-1 up and 301 for three chasing 374. Somehow, they contrived to lose by six runs.
The Bazballers would win the Ashes
My head told me 3-1 Australia, my heart 3-2 England. But there was a huge caveat in this: “If England can keep the majority of their bowlers fit and play at their best there’s no reason why they can’t pull off a memorable Ashes series win that would be the ultimate justification of Bazball and McCullum.”
Australia win the first Test in Perth by 8 wickets It's the first time in 104 years that an Ashes Test has ended inside two days Watch #TheAshes live on TNT and discovery+ pic.twitter.com/WzvwEXmBLG
— Cricket on TNT Sports (@cricketontnt) November 22, 2025None of this happened, with injuries to key bowlers and the die cast when England collapsed to a two-day defeat in Perth. This Ashes has potentially killed off McCullum even if the win in Melbourne was a balm to soothe the pain of losing the series in 11 days of cricket.
And what about 2026?
England’s men will exit the T20 World Cup at the Super Eights stage…
Harry Brook’s men should breeze through a first stage in India where they play Nepal, Bangladesh, the West Indies and, er, Italy. But I can’t see them progressing from the Super Eights, where they will face tough fixtures on spinning Sri Lankan pitches against New Zealand, Pakistan and the co-hosts themselves.
…but the women will win their home T20 World Cup
This might be a big ask given Nat Sciver-Brunt’s team will have to see off the challenge of tournament favourites Australia and India. But home advantage goes a long way and England have the talent to win the whole thing.
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The Bazballers will win their all three Test series this year
The home Test summer consists of a pair of three-match series against New Zealand and Pakistan. Don’t expect England to be perfect, they never are, but whatever the make-up of the set-up following the Ashes they should be good enough to win five of these six Tests.
They head to South Africa next winter, where technically two of the Tests are in early January 2027, but starting with the Boxing Day Test that’s pencilled in for Centurion, I think Stokes and his men can see off the World Test Championship winners in their own backyard 2-1.
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