What’s the economic outlook for 2026? Much depends on the answer, since how voters feel about their financial situation next November will largely determine who controls Congress during Donald Trump’s last two years in office. The president sounds upbeat and optimistic, but the voters do not, and the disconnect between them is stunning. “We’re the hottest country anywhere in the world,” Trump told a national TV audience. “We’re poised for an economic boom, the likes of which the world has never seen.” The president argues that many of his initiatives will kick in next year and fuel that resurgence: Ending taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security. Luring foreign investment. Lowering drug prices. Boosting energy supplies. But as they look ahead, few independent experts share Trump’s outsized ebullience. As The Economist put it, “Expect mediocre growth and, in America, too much inflation in the year ahead.” Consumers are equally worried. A Marist survey for NPR and PBS summarized their findings this way: “Americans have serious concerns about the economy and how these larger economic forces will influence their personal finances in 2026. Cloaked in a shroud of pessimism about what’s to come in the new year and persistent dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, more Americans now say the economy is not working well for them personally.” Actually, that pessimism is growing, as doubts about Trump’s competence deepen. Today, Marist reports, 70% of Americans say they’re “being outpaced by the cost of living,” a huge jump from 45% in June and the highest level of dissatisfaction since the pollsters started asking that question in 2011. “In contrast,” adds Marist, “30% of Americans, down from 55% previously, say their cost of living is affordable or very affordable.” While Trump insists “I am bringing those high prices down and bringing them down very fast,” that’s simply not true. Inflation is running at an annual rate of about 3%, but that is only part of Trump’s pessimism problem. Wage growth has been sluggish, barely keeping up with inflation, and unemployment has reached 4.6%, the highest rate since 2021. So workers have little leverage to bargain for better pay. It’s precisely that economic crunch, rising prices plus stagnant incomes, that helped elect Trump. Almost half the voters told exit polls that their economic situation had deteriorated under Biden, and they voted for Trump by 82 to 16. Now the same forces that promoted the president are punishing him. In fact, his own policies are aggravating the fiscal frustration. Reuters surveyed 42 economic forecasters and many maintained that Trump’s punitive and erratic tariff polices represent “the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook.” Moreover, Reuters added, “Tougher immigration enforcement was also seen as depressing growth” because ousting foreign workers cripples key sectors like home construction and agriculture. “He is in a tough trap of his own doing — and it’s not likely to get easier,” Gene Sperling, an adviser to several Democratic presidents, told the AP. Trump is trapped in another way as well. His TV address highlighted his total inability to confront his pessimism problem, to empathize with the real anxiety voters are feeling, including many who supported him. “It’s the right idea to talk about the economy more, but the execution was abysmal,” one former Trump aide told Politico. “He’s a very effective salesman when his heart is in it or when he’s on the attack. But the ‘I feel your pain’ speech — he just doesn’t have that club in his bag.” Because Trump believes that admitting failure or taking responsibility for it is a sign of weakness, he keeps blaming his predecessor for any and all problems. But since he dominates Washington and Biden has slipped into obscurity, the strategy doesn’t work. “In politics, the ‘look-back’ is never as effective as the ‘look-forward,'” Kevin Madden, a veteran GOP communications strategist, explained to Politico. “Voters will always provide more breathing room if you establish credibility by acknowledging the challenge, and the challenge right now that they’re feeling from higher prices is real. You have to acknowledge that, first, if you’re ever going to gain their support for the policy plan to address it and make it better in the future.” Voters have been feeling severe economic stress for years. That’s why the incumbent party has lost the last three presidential elections. But now that pain and pessimism is focused on Trump. He’s betting that he can improve the national mood by November, but the odds are stacked heavily against him. (Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.)
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