Defending champion Ohio State opens its bid to become college football’s first repeat national champion since Georgia (2021-22) when the Buckeyes face Miami in the Cotton Bowl. Kickoff is 7:30 pm, ET, Wednesday (ESPN).
Miami outlasted Texas A&M 10-3 in the opening round of the Playoff.
Expect fireworks. Ohio State features a Heisman finalist in QB Julian Sayin and the most dangerous receiver in the country in Jeremiah Smith.
Smith is no stranger to the Canes; he was a nation’s No. 1 recruit out of nearby Chaminade-Madonna in Broward County. This week, Smith told reporters he “probably” would have ended up at Miami had the Canes been more Playoff ready.
Though the pieces are entirely different, these programs are no strangers to producing championship drama. Capping the 2002 season, Ohio State took advantage of a questionable pass interference call to beat Miami 31-24 in the BCS Championship Game.
Here’s our detailed preview, plus our expert betting advice for the Cotton Bowl Playoff quarterfinal.
Miami vs Ohio State Odds
Betting MarketOhio StateMiamiSpread-9.5 (-110)+9.5 (-110)Moneyline-357+283TotalOver 40.5 (-116)Under 40.5 (-104)(Odds courtesy of consensus data on December 30th.)
The sportsbooks have installed Ohio State as a substantial 9.5-point favorite, reflecting its status as defending champions and higher Playoff seed. The moneyline heavily favors the Buckeyes at -357, while Miami sits at +283 as the underdog. The game total opened at 41.5 but has ticked down to 40.5, suggesting bettors anticipate a more defensive affair than initially projected.
Removing the vig from the moneyline odds, Ohio State carries an implied probability of approximately 75.0% to advance, while Miami’s upset chances sit at 25.0%. A successful $10 wager on favored Ohio State would yield a modest $2.80 profit, while backing the underdog Hurricanes would return $28.30 on the same investment.
Cotton Bowl betting analysis: Miami provides excellent value at +9.5
Ohio State deserves favorite status as the defending champion, but the 9.5-point spread at Bet365 Sportsbook creates substantial value on Miami’s side. The Hurricanes possess the exact defensive profile needed to keep this playoff quarterfinal competitive and potentially pull off the upset.
Miami’s defensive havoc metrics tell the story of an opportunistic unit capable of disrupting elite offenses. The Hurricanes have a +11 turnover differential and 41 sacks — which is tied for 4th in the country.
The big question is whether Miami’s defensive strengths will translate against an Ohio State offense that has allowed just 11 sacks and committed just 9 turnovers. Sayin threw 31 TD passes against just 6 interceptions.
The situational angle favors Miami as well. Underdogs of 7+ points in College Football Playoff games have been competitive since the format’s inception, with defensive-minded teams particularly successful against spread offenses in neutral-site environments. Miami’s opportunistic style mirrors past Playoff upsets where turnover differential proved decisive.
For the total, the 40.5 line appears conservative given both offenses’ capabilities. Ohio State’s 34.9 points per game and Miami’s 32.1 average suggest these units should combine for more production. The Hurricanes’ exceptional 90.9% red zone efficiency indicates they capitalize on scoring opportunities, while Ohio State’s 54.9% third-down conversion rate keeps drives alive. Both offenses have shown “improving” trends late in the season, positioning them to exceed this modest total in a playoff atmosphere.
Best Bet: Miami +9.5 (-110) at Bet365 on Dec. 30Second bet: Over 40.5 (-110) at Bet365 on Dec. 30
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