Lower-seeded teams are now 9-6 in the College Football Playoff since the bracket expanded to include 12 teams. Two such teams won in the opening round of the 2025 CFP. Last season, lower-seeded teams won all 4 quarterfinal games.
In the aftermath of that, the powers that be adjusted the CFP format to guarantee first-round byes to the 4 highest-ranked teams regardless of whether or not they won conference titles. The assumption there: rather than the best conference champs, now we have the best teams receiving a first-round bye.
Will that be the case? We’ll find out this week with 4 CFP games beginning on Wednesday, Dec. 31.
Let’s take a look at some DFS angles to attack from the quarterfinal round.
CFP Quarterfinal DFS predictions
Below are 4 DFS picks for the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff — 1 from each game — that can be found across some of the best apps for daily fantasy sports on the market. New users can hit the banner below each player pick and our SDS sign-up bonus will be applied to your account.
Texas Tech QB Behren Morton lower than 238.5 passing yards vs. Oregon
Oregon’s first-round win over James Madison was a tale of 2 halves. The Ducks won the opening 30 minutes 34-6 while out-gaining the Dukes on a per-play basis by more than 10 yards — 14.4 to 4.2. The Ducks then lost the final 30 minutes 28-17 while being out-gained 8.4 yards per play to 5.5.
JMU hit 8 explosive plays in the second half, including 5 pass plays that all gained at least 24 yards. The Ducks looked like they were moving at half-speed, content to ride out a game that was clearly over at the half. Coach Dan Lanning wasn’t pleased with the second-half effort, and that creates a buy-low opportunity here with an Oregon defense that has otherwise been excellent against the pass this year.
Prior to the first-round game against JMU, Oregon had given up 20 pass plays that gained 20 yards or more in 13 games. JMU hit 7 such plays. Even factoring in that performance, Oregon still ranks in the 99th percentile for yards per drop-back allowed, according to Game on Paper.
Texas Tech’s offense has its problems. If the Red Raiders find success moving the ball, my guess is it will be on the ground. Quarterback Behren Morton has cleared 238.5 passing yards in a game just 5 times all season, and just 2 of those games have occurred since Oct. 4. Morton’s number feels like more of a reaction to Oregon’s first-round performance than anything, and everything suggests that performance is an outlier.
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SIGN UPCODE: SDS2CODE: SDS2SIGNUP BONUSCLAIM $25BONUS CASH!PLAY NOWAlabama QB Ty Simpson higher than 32.5 pass attempts vs. Indiana
Indiana faces the fewest rushing attempts per game of any defense in the country. The Hoosiers have the 10th-best run defense in the nation by efficiency, allowing 2.9 yards per carry. They’ve given up only 5 rushing scores in 13 games and, since allowing 218 rushing yards to Old Dominion in the season opener, they have allowed 100 rushing yards in a game only once. Ohio State gained 58 on the ground on 26 attempts against IU. Oregon gained 81 on 30 carries. Don’t question whether IU can scale against better teams; it can.
And Alabama, while talented, is a terrible rushing team. Since running for 269 yards and 8 scores against Eastern Illinois on Nov. 22 — and making sure everyone in the country knew about it — Alabama has combined for 183 rushing yards and 1 score in its last 3 games. The Tide had 28 rushing yards against OU, and -3 yards against Georgia.
The entire weight of the offense will be on Ty Simpson. Alabama’s quarterback threw only 29 times to beat the Sooners, but he had loads of help from Oklahoma, which short-circuited on special teams and gave Alabama a pick-6. IU doesn’t beat itself. Simpson will have to with his arm. I think this looks more like the SEC title game against Georgia, when Simpson threw 39 times.
At this point, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb knows what his team can and can’t do. To beat IU, he’ll have to lean on what works. That means throwing with Simpson. In 5 of his last 6 games against FBS competition, Simpson has cleared 32.5 passing attempts. Expect more of the same.
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PLAY NOWCODE: SDSCODE: SDSSIGNUP BONUSPLAY $5GET $75PLAY NOWDFS Picks: Top plays for the 2025 College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Saturday Down South.
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