The next 12 months in rugby feels like a pivotal year for so many reasons.
The calendar year before a Rugby World Cup obviously always has the feeling of jockeying for position before the showdown, this time in Australia.
But it is also a crucial period of time for the game as a whole, with domestic and international competitions almost all re-inventing themselves in an effort to keep up with an ever-changing sporting landscape.
So I’ve taken a look at what I predicted last year – and what might be coming up in 2026.
The new Nations Championship
First things first… what is it? Think football’s Nations League, transforming the friendly matches played in between competitions into a competition, because we haven’t got enough competitions…
So the old July tours and November autumn series are being replaced by the world’s top 12 teams – the 10 from the Six Nations and Sanzaar, plus Fiji and Japan invited in – fighting it out in the Nations Championship, played in even years (2026, 2028, etc) between World Cups and Lions tours.
The publicists are punting on a hemisphere vs hemisphere rivalry, with teams from the north facing only their counterparts from the south. That feels a trifle strained.
Even so, South Africa vs England in July is a cool fixture to start with, and it all culminates in a final between the top teams in the northern and southern pools, at Twickenham in November. Which South Africa will win, obviously.
The Springboks, who barely grow weaker whether they pick their first choices or the thirds, won back-to-back Rugby Championships in 2024 and 2025 for the first time, and they are ranked No 1 in the world, having carried off the last two World Cups, too.
Prediction: South Africa to win, while you get bored explaining to mates why Japan are in the southern-hemisphere pool (it’s to even up the numbers)
Men’s Six Nations
Something went amiss with my crystal ball here last year, as while the British & Irish Lions, Bath, Leinster and England’s women fulfilled my predictions, Scotland somehow failed to take the men’s Six Nations (not helped when they were done out of a win at Twickenham by Finn Russell missing a conversion taken from the wrong position).
The Scots’ subsequent losses to Fiji, New Zealand and, in particular, Argentina have made head coach Gregor Townsend’s position look precarious. So, while sidestepping my tendency over the years to pick a Six Nations winner one season ahead of it happening, I’ll ignore both the Scots and the abject Welsh, and focus on the favourites France, England and Ireland.
Notre roi Antoine Dupont se fait la malle au ras du regroupement, raffut. Essai imparable#STSR pic.twitter.com/aiiAmwmIy9
— El Toulousain (@El_toulous1) December 28, 2025The French are odds-on, largely because they won it last year, scrum-half Antoine Dupont is fit again, and they have Ireland and England coming to Paris. There again, you’d be less convinced after seeing Toulouse fall apart like a poorly-made foie gras at Glasgow in the Champions Cup this month.
A lot of people will fancy England on an upward curve, while Ireland seem to be heading the other way after Six Nations titles in 2023 and 2024. For now, let’s go with home advantage.
Oh, and here’s a free and intriguing tip for you, made by South Africa’s head coach Rassie Erasmus in November: “If I can make a prediction, Italy will finish two or three in the Six Nations. For me, they are a team that is on the up.”
Prediction: France to retain the title
Premiership, URC and Champions Cup
It’s copy and paste in the Prem, as the reigning champions Bath have grown a little stronger since they beat Leicester Tigers in last season’s final. Ben Spencer and Finn Russell are still running the show, and the seminal away win over Saracens in December showcased a magical synergy between a strong pack – Thomas du Toit, Charlie Ewels, Guy Pepper and company – and dangerous backs.
One hurdle in Bath’s way is if they get distracted by going deep in the Champions Cup, which right now looks fairly open, with Glasgow, Stormers, Leinster, Northampton Saints, Bordeaux-Begles (the holders) and Bristol Bears all on two pool wins out of two.
Predictions: Bath for the Prem, Bordeaux-Begles to retain the Champions Cup and Stormers to be a South African URC winner.
Player to make a splash in second half of the Premiership
Max Ojomoh’s wide smile lit up Twickenham last June, when the Bath centre scored in the Premiership final win, and he did it again for England in November, while Pepper and Henry Pollock have hammered down doors in the back row, and became social-media glitterati on hols with the All Blacks’ Ardie Savea.
Here’s hoping, though, that Immanuel Feyi-Waboso’s injury nightmare of the first half of 2025 is all over, as he can be the face of an Exeter Chiefs resurgence, and carry that form to England.
Prediction: Feyi-Waboso to turn defenders inside out
Champ Rugby to settle its place in the world
For the devoted souls who haven’t yet given up on this, the questions you want answered are: who will win, and can they get promoted to the Prem? To which I’d say, umm, aah, well, it depends on this, that and the other.
The Championship leaders Ealing Trailfinders are undertaking the audit for promotion, and they have made stadium improvements, so if they win the title via the new top-six play-offs, they may at last qualify for the end-of-season promotion play-off against the Prem’s bottom club.
However – and there is always a “however” – the Prem want a “reimagined” top division of expansion via franchises and tenders, not straight up and down.
Prediction: Ealing to win the Champ, definitely. And be added to the Prem? Maybe
And finally, Wales… oh Wales!
Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake, two fine players who have captained Wales in 2025, are leaving the Swansea-based Ospreys to join Gloucester for next season. This is easy to get your head around, albeit painful if you believe in strong, domestic Welsh rugby.
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The rest takes a lot of explaining, and the way ahead is unclear. A game that used to be about fun, physicality, local pride, mud, sweat and beers is tied up in knots over numbers and money.
One scenario has the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) running the rugby bits of three regional teams, while private owners take on the commercial side. The rumour that the Ospreys’ owners Y11 are about to jump ship to buy Cardiff instead, is another element in a baffling mess.
Prediction: It’s more of a fingers-crossed hope that the talent and passion in Wales will survive
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