Can Arne Slot’s side make it four Premier League wins in a row? We look ahead to the New Year’s Day clash with our Liverpool vs Leeds United prediction and preview.
Liverpool vs Leeds United: The Key Stats
Liverpool claimed all three points in a dominant 70.2% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Leeds will be looking for back-to-back league wins away to Liverpool for the first time ever. Liverpool have won their last three Premier League games, having won just two of their previous 10.Arne Slot will hope Liverpool have turned a corner heading into 2026, with Leeds United their first test on New Year’s Day at Anfield.
The defending champions have been out of sorts for large parts of the 2025-26 campaign, but have now reeled off three straight Premier League wins. Brighton, Tottenham and Wolves have all been swept aside, with those three victories as many as Liverpool had managed in 10 such games beforehand (D2 L6).
Ryan Gravenberch‘s well-taken strike and a first Reds goal for Florian Wirtz did the damage in a 2-1 win last time out against bottom club Wolves. Slot’s side were still unconvincing, though, with Santiago Bueno’s second-half finish setting up a nervy finale at Anfield.
Wirtz has now scored (1) or assisted (1) in his last two Premier League games, having failed to register either in his first 15 such outings since leaving Bayer Leverkusen. The German last managed a goal involvement in more consecutive league games in a six-match run for Leverkusen between November and December 2024.
His improvement in form leaves questions as to whether Dominik Szoboszlai will immediately return to the starting XI after his one-match suspension, with Cody Gakpo also coming back from injury for a late cameo against Wolves.
That duo’s return, alongside the likes of Hugo Ekitiké, Wirtz and Federico Chiesa, leaves Slot with attacking options in the absence of the injured Alexander Isak, while Mohamed Salah remains away at the Africa Cup of Nations with Egypt.
Gakpo will fancy his chances here, too, given he has scored in Liverpool’s first Premier League game of each of the last two calendar years, against Newcastle United and Manchester United. The last Reds player to score in their first league game three years in a row was Ian Rush in 1985, 1986 and 1987.
Slot will still want to see improvements at the other end of the pitch. No side has conceded more goals from set-pieces (excluding penalties) than Liverpool in the Premier League this season (12).
But Liverpool may, at least, take some comfort from getting straight back into action on the first day of 2026. They have won five of their last six Premier League games on New Year’s Day (D1), with their last defeat coming at home to Chelsea back in 2005.
Another New Year’s Day victory here would add further hope to closing the gap on the runaway top three. Liverpool sit fourth in the table but seven points behind third-placed Aston Villa and 10 adrift of leaders Arsenal.
Leeds will be no pushovers, however. A battling 1-1 draw away to Sunderland on Sunday moved Daniel Farke’s side, who are 16th, seven points clear of the bottom three and extended their unbeaten run to five Premier League games (W2 D3).
Dominic Calvert-Lewin equalised at the Stadium of Light, extending his scoring run to an impressive six league games. He is only the 11th English player to score in as many Premier League appearances in a row, and Leeds’ first top-flight player to do so since John McCole in 1959-60.
A hard-fought point still came at a cost, with Joe Rodon limping off in the aftermath of Simon Adingra’s opener. Farke expects the Welsh centre-back to be out until mid-January with his ankle injury, joining Sean Longstaff and Daniel James as absentees.
Rodon’s absence may see Farke switch back to a four-man defence, having favoured a 3-5-2 in recent weeks. Whatever formation is preferred, the odds are against Leeds, who have won one of their last 16 away top-flight matches against reigning champions (D5 L10).
Leeds’ last such victory came in a 3-2 win over Arsenal at Highbury back in May 2003, thanks to a late Mark Viduka winner, and their form to start a new calendar year is hardly any better.
They have won just one of their last six league games on New Year’s Day (D3 L2), beating Birmingham City 3-0 in the 2023-24 Championship. This is their first New Year’s Day game in the Premier League since 2003, a 2-0 home win against Birmingham.
However, Leeds have not lost any of their last 10 league games played in January (W6 D4), since a 2-1 defeat to Villa in 2023 under Jesse Marsch. The only side in the top four tiers with a longer current unbeaten run in January is Arsenal (11 games).
Liverpool vs Leeds United Head-to-Head
Liverpool have scored 19 goals in their last five Premier League matches against Leeds (W3 D1 L1).
However, they collapsed to draw 3-3 at Elland Road in the most recent meeting in December, their highest scoring draw ever with the Whites.
Ekitiké’s quickfire double had given Liverpool a 2-0 lead, but a Calvert-Lewin penalty and goal from Anton Stach dragged Leeds level. Ao Tanaka then equalised again in the 96th minute after Szoboszlai had sent the Reds ahead 16 minutes earlier.
Leeds also won 2-1 in their last away league game against Liverpool in October 2022, but they have never won on consecutive visits to the Reds in their league history.
Liverpool vs Leeds United Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggles to see past a home win, with Liverpool winning a massive 70.2% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Leeds are afforded only a 12.9% chance of back-to-back wins at Anfield, with the draw accounting for the rest of the data-led sims in 16.8%.
Liverpool vs Leeds United Predicted Lineups
Liverpool: Alisson Becker, Jeremie Frimpong, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, Alexis Mac Allister, Federico Chiesa, Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitiké.
Head Coach: Arne Slot
Leeds United: Lucas Perri, Jayden Bogle, Ethan Ampadu, Jaka Bijol, Pascal Struijk, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Ao Tanaka, Anton Stach, Brenden Aaronson, Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Head coach: Daniel Farke
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off at Anfield, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Liverpool vs Leeds United Prediction: Have Arne Slot’s Side Turned a Corner? Opta Analyst.
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