If you squint just hard enough — past the steady stream of drama, past the gray in the beards, and past the fact that Gui Santos and Pat Spencer are X-factors — you might convince yourself that the Golden State Warriors are back.
Three straight wins will do that for you. Beating the Suns, the Mavericks, and the Magic in succession feels like proof of life. It feels like stability. The off-court energy might be weird, but the vibes, as the kids say, are improving on the court.
“We’re in a good place,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said after the Dubs’ Christmas win over the Mavericks.
And he’s right.
For now.
And who knows, maybe it can hold for a while.
Or perhaps the success of this operation depends on the health of a 39-year-old’s sciatic nerve.
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For the time being, the nightly casting call is over. Kerr is no longer frantically throwing things against the wall to see what sticks. It’s not that anything stuck in particular — he just stopped throwing.
Jonathan Kuminga, the supposed bridge to the post-Curry future? His role is to keep his keister stuck to the bench. Buddy Hield, the sharpshooter acquired to replicate the splashy chaos of old? He’s in the land of DNPs now, too.
Fifteen percent of the Warriors’ annual player payroll — a number that is managed with exacting precision (the Dubs currently have $301,410 of room under the second salary cap apron, which they cannot go over) — is healthy and not playing.
Trade value? That’s not Kerr’s problem. Let Mike Dunleavy Jr. figure that one out. And best of luck to him.
But the true absurdity of this operation is how temperamental this homeostasis is.
The Warriors’ peace is a fragile one.
It depends on Jimmy Butler to keep playing with the aggression he seemingly turns on and off, depending on the severity of the overarching moment.
It depends on not running into a team that can both crash the boards and hit 3-pointers — the Dubs have a 44 percent offensive rebound advantage and a 58 percent 3-pointers made advantage over the last three games, despite shooting only 31 percent from beyond the arc during that period.
It depends on the health of Al Horford, whose return to the lineup on Christmas was a shot in the arm for a team that has desperately needed a second stretch center (and one that can defend a bit, too) all season.
That said, the Dubs are asking a man who was drafted when George W. Bush was in the White House to be the structural integrity of a Western Conference playoff contender.
There’s no denying it: The Warriors look like a quality, coherent operation when Horford plays. The defense has a second-string quarterback; the offensive spacing makes sense.
But Horford has played in 13 of the Warriors’ 31 games this season.
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And yet, if you listen to the chatter, you’d think this was all part of the master plan.
The refrain is familiar: “We just need to get in. If we can just go on a run like last year…”
This is the most dangerous delusion of all.
The Warriors are currently so intoxicated by the memory of their late-season push from the 2024-25 campaign that they want to reprise it.
They remember the wins. They remember the push up the standings. They remember the confidence they earned and all the nice things that were said about them down the stretch.
They also seem to have conveniently blocked out the ending of that story.
Yes, the Warriors won 23 of their final 30 regular-season games last year after landing Butler.
Then they ran out of gas.
They spent so much energy sprinting for three months to escape the play-in tournament that by the time the real games started, the tank was empty. Steph Curry’s legs were gone, and his hamstring soon after gave way. Draymond Green looked like he was moving in quicksand. Butler was banged up from the butt up.
The “push” was a trap. It burned them out before the finish line.
So, why is this season going to be any different? This roster is older. The dependency on Steph seems higher. Green is further from his peak. Butler is less consistent now that he’s totally over the Miami Heat breakup. Horford is on a maintenance plan stricter than a nuclear reactor’s.
Perhaps the Warriors are a title contender when everything is operating at full capacity. But how often has that happened? How often will that happen?
And trying to cover it up with “strength in numbers” only highlights how many moving parts there are to keep aligned.
Yes, competence in December is a nice story. It sells hope to a fanbase that hasn’t had much to feel good about this season. And it might continue until the new year.
But how do the Warriors make sure that nothing on this old machine falls out of alignment for the next four months? How can they avoid having to light the furniture on fire to keep the house warm?
A trade? A scientific breakthrough?
Hope, prayer, and good vibrations?
The likely answer is they can’t. The NBA season is a grind, not a series of sprints, and this roster is built for short bursts in a league that demands sustained durability.
So go ahead, squint at the standings. Enjoy this sprint. Convince yourself the old magic is back.
Just don’t act surprised when the Warriors show up in April, once again out of breath and out of time.
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