The Giants have been fairly quiet through the offseason’s first two months. They’ve added back-end starter Adrian Houser on a two-year, $22MM deal with a club option. Their only other moves have been cheap fliers on rehabbing relievers Jason Foley and Sam Hentges.
While technically in line with their offseason plan to focus on pitching, their moves to date aren’t the type that’ll move the needle. Chairman Greg Johnson and general manager Zack Minasian have downplayed the chance of making a long-term investment on the pitching staff. There are still a handful of players on the open market who fit on paper. Any of Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez or Zac Gallen would upgrade the rotation. Top free agent hitters Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Bo Bichette happen to fit at their respective biggest problem areas on the position player side (right field and second base, respectively).
It’s possible ownership doesn’t want to meet the asking prices necessary for anyone in that group. The Giants project for a $176MM payroll, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s narrowly above their $173MM Opening Day mark from 2025. That doesn’t include the $17MM payment they owe to Blake Snell on January 15, as they agreed to defer the signing bonus on his contract for the ’24 season.
They’re also on the hook for one of the most expensive managerial situations in MLB. They owe fired skipper Bob Melvin a $4MM salary. They paid a $3MM buyout to the University of Tennessee to get Tony Vitello out of his contract. Vitello is reportedly set for a $3.5MM salary, meaning they’re committing $10.5MM to the position for the first season.
Even with an estimated $40MM until they hit the luxury tax threshold, the budget could be tight for a marquee free agent. However, that doesn’t mean the offseason needs to be exclusively depth acquisitions. The Giants have a few ways to chase the extra wins needed to push them from their annual .500 finish to more firmly in the Wild Card picture.
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The most direct way to do so is via trade. Ketel Marte probably isn’t happening within the division (before even factoring in his no-trade list), but the Giants are reportedly among the teams most active on Brendan Donovan. He’d be a significant upgrade on Casey Schmitt and Tyler Fitzgerald at the keystone, and the Giants match up well with St. Louis.
While San Francisco has a middle of the pack farm system, they’re relatively deep in upper level rotation options. The Cardinals are stockpiling controllable starting pitching at the outset of the rebuild. Five years of Landen Roupp could be compelling for St. Louis. None of Hayden Birdsong, Carson Whisenhunt or Trevor McDonald are going to headline a Donovan trade. One of them as a secondary piece behind a prospect like Jhonny Level or Bo Davidson may be workable, though. There’s also the potential for a package deal involving reliever JoJo Romero, who’d immediately be the most reliable left-hander in Vitello’s bullpen.
Donovan is a versatile defender but probably would fit best as an everyday second baseman in San Francisco. His below-average speed could be an issue if they use him in the corner outfield at Oracle Park. Outfield defense has been an issue for years. That’d make the Giants an intriguing fit for Luis Robert Jr. — especially if they don’t wind up winning the bidding and subtracting prospect talent for Donovan.
San Francisco is not among the teams that have been substantively linked to Robert this offseason, but his skillset would address a few deficiencies. He remains an elite runner and high-end defensive center fielder who could push Jung Hoo Lee to right field. That’d upgrade the defense and leave them only needing one of Heliot Ramos, Drew Gilbert or Luis Matos to play their way into regular playing time.
While Robert hasn’t hit much over the past two years, he’s a career .293/.367/.505 hitter against left-handed pitching. The Giants hit .214/.279/.351 against southpaws this year. They were last in batting average and on-base percentage and above only the Pirates in slugging. Most of their right-handed bats struggled with the platoon advantage. Even the recent version of Robert would be a significant upgrade in that regard. The injury history remains a concern, but few teams are better fits to take the swing on the early-career upside he showed.
Robert isn’t going to command a huge prospect return even if the Sox eat a portion of his $20MM salary. A lower-tier starting pitcher like McDonald or Carson Seymour could be enough depending on how much money Chicago is willing to pay down. The Giants wouldn’t be saddled with the long-term downside at which they’re seemingly balking in free agency.
If the short-term budget is completely prohibitive, they could also look to move Robbie Ray. The southpaw is headed into his final year under contract and slated for a $25MM salary. Ray is their second-best starter overall but had a frustrating finish to the season. He posted a 5.54 ERA while striking out 21% of opponents in the second half after taking a 2.65 ERA and 26.8% strikeout percentage into the All-Star Break. $25MM might be a little rich for one year of his services, but the Giants shouldn’t need to eat much to find a taker when players like Houser and Dustin May are commanding $11-13MM annually.
Trading Ray would require them to backfill the rotation spot. A one-year deal for Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer could save $5-10MM (maybe a little more than $10MM, in Scherzer’s case) compared to Ray’s salary. It’d be a slight downgrade for the rotation but could be enough to accommodate Robert if the White Sox are willing to eat a few million dollars.
Alternatively, there’d be a similar logic to pursuing Houston’s Jake Meyers. The Astros shopped Meyers for starting pitching earlier in the offseason. They’re less likely to move him now after dealing rookie outfielder Jacob Melton for Mike Burrows, but they’re unlikely to take Meyers completely off the table. Their rotation depth is still a significant question. Meyers is one of a number of right-handed bats in a Houston lineup that skews too heavily to that side.
As with Robert, Meyers is a plus defender who’d be a nice boost against left-handed pitching. He doesn’t have Robert’s power-speed ceiling, but he’s a good runner who annually rates around 5-10 runs better than an average center fielder. Meyers showed a more disciplined plate approach this year to hit .292/.354/.373 over 381 plate appearances. Even if there’s some offensive regression in store, he’s a career .265/.324/.421 hitter when holding the platoon advantage.
Meyers is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $3.5MM salary. He’s under arbitration control for two seasons. The Astros are facing their own budget restrictions and aren’t going to want Ray. The Giants probably wouldn’t give up Roupp, but they might be able to line up something involving Meyers and one of their other controllable starters.
Any of these scenarios would raise the lineup’s ceiling without involving rookie first baseman Bryce Eldridge, whom the Giants should only be willing to discuss in a deal for a controllable starter who fits in the upper half of a rotation. The right match just might not be available this offseason. The Twins took Joe Ryan off the market. Fantastic as Freddy Peralta is, it’s difficult to see the Giants trading Eldridge for a pitcher who’s a year from free agency. Edward Cabrera’s injury history and MacKenzie Gore’s inconsistency could be significant enough red flags to keep Eldridge off the table.
The Giants may be better off waiting until the deadline to see whether Eldridge has established himself as an everyday player and whether any of their controllable arms have stepped into more significant roles. That shouldn’t preclude them from pushing some chips in to address the lineup, even if they’re reluctant to add another long-term contract with five players already signed at more than $20MM annually for at least three seasons.
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