Once 7-1, the Colts have lost five of six and are desperate for a win. The 49ers have won four straight to improve to 10-4. We’ve got the keys and the Opta supercomputer’s win probability for the NFL’s Monday Night Football.
Colts vs. 49ers: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer gives the Colts a slight edge with a 50.3% win probability against the visiting 49ers on Monday Night Football. Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce is averaging 20.1 yards per reception this season after averaging 22.3 last season. He is on pace to be the first player since Alvin Harper in 1993-94 to average at least 20 yards per catch in back-to-back seasons. The 49ers lead the NFL with 30 drives lasting five or more minutes this season. They are 8-1 this year when they have more time of possession than their opponent. Christian McCaffrey has gained 34.8% of San Francisco’s scrimmage yards, the third-largest share in the league. Jonathan Taylor ranks fourth with 34.0% of the Colts’ scrimmage yards.Philip Rivers has previously been voted as the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year, after he bounced back from a poor statistical season to make the Pro Bowl in 2013.
If he leads the Indianapolis Colts into the playoffs after not playing since 2019, he will almost certainly win the award again.
Two weeks ago, Rivers was the head coach of St. Michael Catholic High School in Alabama and had been named a finalist for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Now, he’s being tasked with stopping the Colts’ four-game losing streak and saving a season that once looked so promising.
The 44-year-old Rivers, playing in his first NFL game in five years, went 18 for 27 for 120 yards with a touchdown and an interception in an 18-16 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. But he had the Colts in position to win up 16-15 with 47 seconds left after Blake Grupe’s 60-yard field goal.
The Colts didn’t call Rivers just to participate. They presumably thought his experience and knowledge of Shane Steichen’s offense gave them the best chance to salvage their season after injuries to Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard.
Once 7-1, Indianapolis has lost five of its last six games and has fallen to third place in the AFC South, behind the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans. The Colts’ final two games are against those two division rivals, but first, they have a Monday night showdown against the San Francisco 49ers.
The vibes around the 49ers are much different than those surrounding the Colts. They’ve won four straight games to improve to 10-4 and have gotten starting quarterback Brock Purdy back after missing six games with a toe injury.
San Francisco is still in third place in the brutally competitive NFC West, but a win on Monday would pull it into a tie with the Los Angeles Rams for second and would clinch a playoff berth.
Between the high playoff stakes and the curiosity surrounding the Rivers experiment, Monday Night Football is nearly a must-watch event for NFL fans.
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Regardless of who is playing quarterback, Jonathan Taylor is the unquestioned focus of the Colts, but Steichen made some big changes last week to ease Rivers back into the NFL fold.
The offense was extremely conservative last week, with 30 rushing attempts called. When Rivers did throw, he averaged a depth of target of 5.24 yards downfield. Rivers’ 18 completions were caught an average of 1.2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter spoke to reporters about how Rivers’ practicing for another week could open up the play-calling on Monday night.
“Philip has done some nice things in practice, in the workouts and all the stuff that we see behind the scenes that gives us a lot of confidence that as we’re putting together game plans, we have various tools at our disposal to go try to win these games,” Cooter said Wednesday.
“There are ways to attack all these defenses, and shoot, making a big old chunk of yards is always going to help,” Cooter said. “Sometimes that’s throwing it way down the field, sometimes that’s an underneath or intermediate pass where you catch it and run versus just the right defense. Or maybe the quarterback gets you into the right check and you attack the heck out of a defense that you’ve been waiting to attack all day, and sometimes you pop runs.”
Rivers’ 2.25-second average release time last week was the quickest of any quarterback this season with at least 15 attempts, and that game plan could provide an advantageous matchup on Monday night.
The 49ers have allowed a 49.4% success rate on quick-concept passes, which ranks 26th in the league, and a league-high 83.3% of quick passes against the 49ers have targeted an open receiver.
One challenge for Steichen and Cooter this week will be to design a running game that works with some of Rivers’ limitations. Rivers had only two snaps under center last week. He took five snaps from the pistol and 50 from shotgun, which limited Taylor and the running game.
Among the Colts’ favorite run concepts is the outside zone, or “stretch,” which is ideal for running backs with good vision like Taylor. The running back begins turning toward the outside leg of the tight end and can continue outside, cut upfield through a hole, or cut back against the grain to punish an over-pursuing defense.
Taylor is averaging 6.28 yards per carry on outside zone this season, and the Colts are averaging 5.3 yards on stretch plays, which ranks fourth in the league.
The problem is that the outside zone is typically run with the quarterback under center. Indianapolis has run outside zone with the quarterback in pistol or in shotgun at times, but Taylor is averaging just 2.93 yards per carry from pistol formations this season.
If the Colts hope to end their losing streak, their offensive staff may need to draw up some outside zone runs from shotgun and find the right balance between expanding Rivers’ role while not putting too much on his plate.
49ers’ Key to Victory vs. Colts
The 49ers are undergoing a bit of an identity clash offensively of their own. Kyle Shanahan’s units typically have the QB under center, multiple tight ends and stress the running game.
That style, however, hasn’t played to this team’s strengths this season.
The last time Christian McCaffrey was healthy throughout an entire season was in 2023, when he averaged 5.4 yards per carry and gained over 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
This year, McCaffrey has been limited to 3.6 yards per carry.
McCaffrey has made up for his subpar rushing production with an exceptional performance in the passing game. He has 86 receptions for 820 yards and five touchdowns, giving him an outside chance at breaking his own record of 116 catches in a season by an RB, set in 2019.
McCaffrey’s rushing average is just 3.34 yards per carry out of shotgun formations, but that is where Purdy has thrived with a 106.4 passer rating that ranks second among qualified QBs.
The 49ers’ favorite personnel grouping out of shotgun includes one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers, and Purdy’s numbers with 11 personnel are even better. He has a league-best 121.1 passer rating in that scheme (minimum 6.25 attempts per game).
The 49ers love to run quick passing concepts out of shotgun, and many of those plays are designed to create space for McCaffrey.
He will have an interesting matchup in Week 16, however, as he faces an Indianapolis defense that has allowed just 364 receiving yards to running backs all season.
Colts vs. 49ers Prediction
This matchup is about as hard to predict as it gets, specifically on the Indianapolis sideline.
Most of the yearlong trends and statistics can be thrown out the window as the Colts try to rebuild their offense on the fly around a 44-year-old quarterback.
While Rivers’ numbers were unimpressive, the team rallied around him. Steichen may also have the element of surprise to his advantage, with San Francisco’s staff having very little recent film to study.
It might be hard to imagine Rivers suddenly being able to sling the ball around, and one-dimensional offenses usually get crushed in the NFL.
But being at home in a must-win situation, the Colts have been given the slightest nod by the Opta supercomputer with a 50.3% win probability on Monday Night Football.
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49ers vs. Colts Predictions: Can Rivers Perform a Christmas Miracle and Save Indy’s Season? Opta Analyst.
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