We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Selhurst Park with our Crystal Palace vs Man City prediction and preview, as City seek a fifth straight win.
Crystal Palace vs Man City: The Key Stats
Predicting another Premier League victory for Manchester City, the Opta Supercomputer gives Pep Guardiola’s men a 40.6% chance of following a magical night in Madrid by winning in London. Starting with a 33.7% chance of success, Crystal Palace have opened the scoring within 10 minutes in four of their last six meetings with Man City – but they’ve still failed to win. Both teams have scored at least twice in their last four league meetings: two 2-2 draws, plus 4-2 and 5-2 wins for City.Riding the crest of a wave, Manchester City will seek their fourth consecutive Premier League victory when they visit consistent overachievers Crystal Palace.
Only five points separate the sides in the Premier League table, with both fresh from midweek success in Europe.
After beating Sunderland 3-0 on home turf last week, second-placed City moved within two points of leaders Arsenal, who were finally defeated.
Taking their tally to 11 goals across three top-flight outings, Phil Foden scored his side’s third midway through the second half, as the former champions stepped up their title challenge.
The last time City scored at least three times in a trio of successive Premier League victories was back in April 2024, suggesting they may have found the attacking spark that was dulled a little last season.
Leading scorers in England’s top tier with 35 goals, City also lead the way for expected goals (30.0), and they took that prolific form to the Spanish capital in midweek.
Facing familiar foes Real Madrid, City recorded just their second win at the Bernabéu on Wednesday evening, fighting back from behind to seize the lead before half-time.
Netting his first UEFA Champions League goal, Nico O’Reilly equalised before the unstoppable Erling Haaland both won and converted a penalty. Though Madrid were below their best, City’s 2.58 xG reflected a relatively comfortable evening.
Rather than crumbling, as they tended to do in similar circumstances last season, City instead posted a first Champions League away win after going 1-0 down since April 2021.
Perhaps Pep Guardiola’s consistent selection policy has aided their turnaround; it was the fifth time he has named an unchanged starting XI this season, as many as in the last seven years combined.
Albeit, amid an intense schedule, the visitors may need to make changes before facing a vibrant Crystal Palace side, who were also in continental action this week.
On Thursday, the Eagles eased to a 3-0 UEFA Conference League win over Shelbourne in Dublin, boosting hopes of a top-eight finish ahead of next week’s final matchday of the league phase.
That capped a fine few days for Oliver Glasner’s side following their valiant 2-1 victory at Craven Cottage, where Marc Guéhi’s late winner stole all three points against Fulham.
Another London derby triumph saw Palace claim a place in the Premier League’s top four, marking the first time they’ve sat so high in the standings after 15 matches.
Their tally of 26 points also represents the club’s best start to a top-flight campaign, doubling the total they had at this stage last season.
Now set to face a team who restricted Real Madrid to a 46% share of the ball, Glasner’s men have no concerns about letting opponents play while they absorb pressure and look to strike incisively on the break.
Indeed, no fewer than 17 of their last 20 Premier League wins have come when they’ve had less than 50% possession. That includes 13 times this calendar year, the most since Newcastle United (14) in 2022.
Of course, Guéhi and Co. will have their credentials fully tested by one of Europe’s most fearsome attacks, as City possess numerous threats.
Among players with 300+ minutes in the Premier League this season, Man City duo Jérémy Doku and Rayan Cherki have created the most chances per 90 (3.4). Including his exquisite ‘rabona’ against Sunderland, the latter is also assisting a goal every 80 minutes (five in 398 mins), which is the best-ever ratio in a Premier League campaign (300+ mins).
Furthermore, Foden has recently played a part in nine goals across eight City starts, more than any other Premier League player since the start of November. And Haaland speaks for himself.
However, there remains a slight chink in their armour; while City have won all but one of their last 13 league games at the Etihad Stadium – including each of the last seven – they’ve lost three of seven away fixtures this season.
In contrast, Crystal Palace’s style makes them more potent on the road, with only Arsenal (65), Liverpool (57) and City (55) winning more Premier League points away from home since Glasner’s arrival in March 2024.
Back at Selhurst Park, though, Palace have picked up a modest 10 from a possible 21 this term.
If they are to increase that tally on Sunday, they will hope they can count on Jean-Philippe Mateta. The French striker should return after resting a knee problem in midweek, but key men Daniel Muñoz and Ismaïla Sarr are both on the treatment table.
City, meanwhile, will be without Mateo Kovacic, John Stones and midfield fulcrum Rodri once again.
Crystal Palace vs Man City Head-to-Head
Manchester City have lost just two of their last 20 Premier League games against Crystal Palace (W13 D5), with both defeats coming at the Etihad.
Palace are winless in 10 home games against Man City (D3 L7) since April 2015.
Both teams have scored at least twice in their last four top-flight meetings. Should that happen again on Sunday, it would match the longest such streak since Arsenal vs Burnley between 1959 and 1961 (5).
Crystal Palace vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has Man City as favourites to prevail, doing so in 40.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations to Palace’s 33.7%.
That leaves a 25.7% probability of the spoils being shared at Selhurst Park, where City last lost more than a decade ago.
Crystal Palace vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Crystal Palace: Dean Henderson, Marc Guéhi, Maxence Lacroix, Chris Richards, Nathaniel Clyne, Daichi Kamada, Adam Wharton, Tyrick Mitchell, Justin Devenny, Yéremy Pino, Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Head coach: Oliver Glasner
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Nico O’Reilly, Nico González, Bernardo Silva, Rayan Cherki, Phil Foden, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Head coach: Pep Guardiola
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Crystal Palace vs Man City Prediction: Slick City Aim to Tame High-Flying Eagles Opta Analyst.
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